State Fiscal Outlook New England Board of Higher Education Boston, MA December 5, 2008 Brian Sigritz Staff Associate National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 Washington, DC (202)

NASBO 2 Recent State Fiscal Situation Flat spending/declining revenue Shortfalls in the billions Across the board budget cuts, layoffs Credit crisis impacting short- and long- term borrowing Most states in recession  Some energy and agriculture states doing relatively well All states at some risk

NASBO 3 Flat and Declining Expenditure Growth *31-year historical average rate of growth is 6.3 percent **Fiscal 08 numbers are preliminary actual ***Fiscal 09 numbers are appropriated Source: Preliminary NASBO December 2008 Fiscal Survey of States

NASBO 4 Revenue Growth: 2 nd Quarter PIT Relatively Strong Source: Rockefeller Institute of Government; U.S. Census Bureau

NASBO 5 3 rd Quarter Revenue Trends 42 states have reported 3 rd quarter data Overall revenue growth of 0.1%  -2.6% growth when adjusted for inflation Sales tax collections declined 0.7%, corporate income declined 15.3%, and personal income grew at a weak 1.5% Source: Rockefeller Institute of Government

NASBO 6 Budget Cuts Increasing Source: Preliminary December 2008 Fiscal Survey of States

NASBO 7 Balances Declining *31-year historical average is 5.7% Source: Preliminary NASBO December 2008 Fiscal Survey of States

NASBO 8 Higher Education: 10.5% of Total State Spending Source: Preliminary NASBO 2007 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 9 Total Expenditures Percentage Growth in Spending Categories Over 10 Years Sources: NASBO 1997 and 2006 State Expenditure Reports

NASBO 10 State Fiscal Outlook Much will depend on the national economy Expect significant drops in revenue and spending States will face dramatic budget cuts States will look for creative financing and revenue opportunities to meet these spending demands Opportunity for reform Recovery for states at best in FY ‘11