Post-2006 Republican Election Overview November 24, 2006

GOP faced Major Hurdles 42% Bush job approval, 41% Right Track, 33% Congressional job approval Historical trends: 31 House, 6 Senate GOP Senate races outspent by $12m in Sept/Oct 45 uncontested Dem seats vs. 10 GOP War on Terror/Iraq And…

…Scandals and Late Campaigns! 23 House seats and 3 Senate seats touched by scandal More than a dozen House seats “caught napping”

The 2006 Vote 76million ballots cast – or 40.4% of VAP –Democrats – 39,556,886 or 52% –GOP – 34,776,371 or 48%

Historic Election for Democrats Gain 29 House/6 Senate seats Gain 322 State legislative seats, including control of 3 states not controlled since 1966 Largest number of GOP incumbent Senators defeated since 1986

Good News for GOP Ohio – Control all State Supreme Court seats and State Auditor Florida – 1 st consecutive GOP governors since 1870 Gained state office holders seats in Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana Gained state legislative seats in 10 states Decreased registration advantage by 414k in states that register by party

What the Election was…and wasn’t Not a repudiation of conservative philosophy Not a validation of Democrat agenda But it was…a THUMPING –Voters punished Republican candidates

Did GOP Lose Base Voter in 2006? GOP were 36% of voters –37% in ’04; 40% in ’02; 35% in ’00 Conservative were 32% of voters –34% in ’04; 34% in ’02; 29% in ’00 Candidates gained 91% of GOP vote –93% in ’04; 92% in ’02; 91% in ’00 Candidates gained 78% of Cons. Vote –84% in ’04; 79% in ’02; 81% in 00

Republican National Committee Voter Program “Republican efforts made the contest for the Senate closer and likely enabled the Republicans to hold at least 10 seats in the House” James Carville and Stan Greenberg

GOP Ground Game Worked 23 House races won by less than 2% Or… 19 races won by less than 5000 votes And… GOP won 13 of those races A shift of 30,000 votes would mean 6 more GOP seats…out of 76million votes

Why Microtargeting? In 2000… 20.6m voters in solid GOP precincts –13% of all registered voters 26.1m voters in solid Democrat precincts –16% of all registered voters Democrats had 5.5m voters advantage – 3% of all registered voters

What is Microtargeting Build National Party voter file –Party registration, vote history, volunteer and community lists Cross with Commercial Marketing lists –Lifestyle traits, consumer behavior Overlay with Vote and Issue Survey

MicroTargeting Identifies More voters for TURNOUT Voters on issues for PERSUASION New voters for REGISTRATION Target voters for ACTIVATION And will focus RESOURCES

2008 – Win House with White House 61 Democrat seats won by Bush in 2004