Climate Change Impacts on Pacific Northwest Ocean Health July 6, 2009 Climate Science in the Public Interest A presentation to Representative Brian Baird by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington

Areas of study: Water resources Aquatic Ecosystems Forests Coasts Objectives Increase regional resilience to climate variability and change Produce science useful to (and used by!) the decision making community 1st of 9 U.S. Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) teams UW Climate Impacts Group The Climate Impacts Group

An Interdisciplinary Research Team Dept of Atmospheric Sciences School of Marine Affairs School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering (hydrology) College of Forest Resources School of Public Health and Community Medicine University of Washington External Collaborators NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (ocean acidification) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (hydrology) Washington Department of Ecology (coastal zone; adaptation) Consultants in Idaho (water markets, energy deregulation, institutional analysis) Washington State University (agriculture)

Major CIG Stakeholders Include… Local/Tribal Level: King County, Washington City of Olympia, Washington Puget Sound Energy Seattle City Council Seattle City Light Seattle Public Utilities Swinomish Tribe (Washington) Tacoma Power and Light State Level: Idaho Dept. of Water Resources Oregon Dept. of Energy State Governor’s Offices (WA, OR, ID) WA, OR, ID State Legislatures WA Dept. of Community, Trade & Economic Development Washington Dept. of Ecology Washington Dept. of Fish and Wildlife Washington Dept. of Health Washington Dept. of Natural Resources Federal Level: Bonneville Power Administration National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Bureau of Reclamation U.S. Congress, PNW delegation USDA, Natural Resource Conservation Service U.S. Dept. of Energy, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service U.S. Forest Service U.S. Geologic Survey

Challenges Posed by Climate Change in the PNW Coastal Environment 1.Changing ocean thermal structure (increasing surface & sub-surface heat) 2.Increasing ocean acidification in the North Pacific Ocean and, particularly, off the West Coast of North America 3.Increasing stratification of the water column as a result of changing ocean thermal structure 4.The future of coastal upwelling winds, which may be sensitive to the regional impacts of global warming 5.Impact of multiple stresses on salmon and salmon restoration programs 6.Harmful algal blooms 7.Coastal hypoxia 8.Changes in the frequency and predictability of fisheries recruitment events as a result of cascading changes in the marine environment 9.Very complex, but largely unknown, changes in nearshore structural algae (eelgrass, kelp) as habitat for a wide range of coastal fish species 10.Changes in the magnitude and type of coastal hazards generated by varying levels of sea level rise and the ways these changes will impact coastal development and public infrastructure

General Managerial Needs for Addressing These Challenges 1.Increased information derived from expansions in monitoring capacity in the open and coastal ocean and Puget Sound 2.Research and assessment tied to policy development 3.Systematic evaluation of policy options for responding to multiple stresses in a changing environment

National Academy of Sciences “National Climate Choices”. CIG participating on two panels: 1) Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, and 2) Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change. West Coast Governors’ Agreement on Ocean Health. CIG providing guidance on Overarching Action 2: Climate Change June 2008 sea level rise MOU between Washington State and British Columbia. CIG participating on joint Washington/British Columbia coastal experts group. Puget Sound Partnership. CIG providing technical guidance and collaborating on effort to develop tools for visualizing climate change impacts at very fine scale. Research program on ocean acidification. CIG working with partners to establish research program in the Northeast Pacific focusing on the impacts of 1) ocean acidification, and 2) changing ocean thermal structure Peer-reviewed scientific publications, white papers, fact sheets, and other documents on climate impacts. Linking Research to Coastal/Ocean Policy

Climate Change and Coastal Upwelling Spring/summer winds from the north cause upwelling of cool nutrient rich water that fuels extremely productive marine ecosystems along the Pacific coast – Upwelling is a key factor for ocean productivity for salmon, sea birds, marine mammals … and shelf hypoxia off Oregon and Washington What will happen to coastal upwelling in a warming world? Policy/Management linkages: endangered and overfished species recovery plans, harvest management plans

CIG Upwelling Research With historical observations, we’re investigating causes for upwelling variations in the past century With output from climate models, we’re evaluating projections for upwelling in a warmer future – We’re analyzing output from IPCC’s AR4 climate models, and running regional climate models to determine the role of fine-scale coastal features (coastlines, land/sea contrasts, and topography) in structuring fine-scale patterns in coastal upwelling 2060s-1990s April-June windstress From ECHAM5-WRF model Salathé, Zhang, Mantua, and Mitchell, in prep

Climate and Coho Salmon Productivity Develop tools to understand and predict coho salmon marine and freshwater survival variations with environmental variables Use these tools to estimate past and projected (future) statistics of climate-forced changes in coho productivity – Retrospective analysis, preseason fishery forecasts, and long-term scenarios for coho in the 21st century Policy and management linkages: preseason fishery forecasts, habitat restoration plans, long-term salmon recovery planning

We have identified clear patterns of marine survival that distinguish coastal from Puget Sound stocks, and wild and hatchery stocks Next steps: Identify key factors that cause the variability in each group Use climate model outputs to project changes in those factors and extend them to coho marine survival patterns

Climate and Paralytic Shellfish Toxins in Puget Sound Shellfish A collaboration with NOAA’s NWFSC Oceans and Human Health Initiative Project goal: to better understand the role of climate in Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in Puget Sound First Central and Whidbey basin closures First South basin closures Closures in most of Sound Closures only in Northwest basin and Strait Alexandrium catenella Produces PSTs in Puget Sound

Environmental Window for Accelerated Growth of HABs in Puget Sound Our analyses of historical climate and HABs data show that temperature is a key factor for accelerated growth of Alexandrium -- warming will lead to a longer “window of opportunity” for HABs in Puget Sound. Next steps: develop and implement a more sophisticated biophysical model for Puget Sound circulation and plankton in order to extend our ability to predict HAB risks in the short and long term

What is “natural” in Puget Sound Significance Shifting Baseline Syndrome Climate impacts on marine biota Restoration Targets Contributions Pacific cod and walleye pollock Threatened and endangered rockfish species

Climate Impacts : Marine Food Webs Hypoxia and Food Webs Large affected area Climate as mediator? Non-lethal impacts Fishing and land use policy Foundation Species Pacific Herring and “forage fish” Freshwater runoff Jellyfish as predator and competitor

Proposed Architecture for International Collaboration in Research on Ocean Acidification Scale of problem too large for single investigator/single unit effort to be optimal. Need to ground large scale research effort in specific ocean regions with coordinated planning & joint efforts to make advances in cumulative fashion. Problem getting increased attention in North Atlantic--ICES & individual nations, but not yet at scale of coordinated effort that required. In US investigations at single laboratory/individual level, but again no large scale dedicated program apart from NOAA/PMEL monitoring effort in North Pacific. No significant effort yet in North West Pacific & proposed program with focus on the Tropics by IOC, perhaps with support from GEF/IBRD. Discussions beginning with intent to lead to organized, coordinated multi- institutional effort in N.E. Pacific, from Alaska to California. Then need to connect to North Atlantic through ICES, North West Pacific through PICES, and Tropics through IOC.

Potential Responses to Ocean Acidification Research: Investment must be increased significantly because level of ignorance great & global coordinated effort optimal. Along with everything else, need to build quantitative database of thresholds in all relevant dimensions of the problem. [Build mesocosm at Friday Harbor Lab/Univ. of Washington as national facility] Monitoring: Again considerable investment needed to stay abreast of changing rates of change. [NE Pacific Ocean & Puget Sound in jeopardy]. Ecosystem-based Mgmt (EBM): A sufficiently enhanced understanding of EBM “on the ground” [in place-based contexts] a necessary condition to facilitate effective adaptation. Enormous gaps in the data currently exist. Must be done in context of managing multiple stresses. Risk Mgmt: A crucial requirement for adaptation planning. Integrated Assessment: Need to organize one on global basis ASAP and periodically iterate the exercise to facilitate growth in skill & utility of output.

For Additional Information Climate Impacts Group Ed Miles, CSES Co-Director, Principal Investigator, Professor (206) Nate Mantua, CSES Co-Director, CSES Principal, Assoc. Research Professor (206) Amy Snover, CSES Associate Director, CSES Principal, Research Scientist (206) Tim Essington, CSES Principal and Assistant Professor (206)

Additional Details

CIG Core Expertise Climate o Climate dynamics and diagnostics o PNW climate change scenarios o Regional climate modeling o Extreme events Hydrology and water resources o VIC/DHSVM modeling o Scenario development o Implications for water management, institutions o Hydropower production o Optimization Forests o Modeling and projecting changes in disturbance (fire, pests), distribution, composition Aquatic ecosystems o Salmon o Puget Sound food-webs and harmful algal blooms o California Current ecosystem o Impacts on stream temperature and flow Adaptation o Implications for PNW communities and ecosystem management Outreach

Additional Strengths… Coasts/Estuaries o Implications of sea level rise on coastal land uses o Impacts of climate change on the nearshore environment, Puget Sound estuary Urban Stormwater Infrastructure Human Health o Extreme heat o Air quality Agriculture Dryland and irrigated agriculture Agricultural economics

Key CIG Research Projects Related to Coastal/Ocean Health Salmon and Climate – Quantitative tools for evaluating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of Pacific salmon – Salmon MALBEC: Modeling studies to support conservation planning for Pacific salmon – Climate change and the future of wild Pacific salmon (funded by NCEAS) Climate Impacts on Coastal Marine Fisheries – Improving rebuilding plans for overfished West Coast fish stocks through inclusion of climate information – Anthropogenic stresses on marine ecosystems

Key CIG Research Projects, cont’d Climate Impacts on Estuaries – Reconstructing historical baselines of the Puget Sound groundfish and invertebrate communities – Climate impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in the PNW – Climate impacts on marine forage fish and jellyfish – Developing phytoplankton and zooplankton ecosystem models for Puget Sound that are capable of addressing climate impacts questions Climate – Future climate of the California Current System – Coastal upwelling: past, present, and future Outreach – Washington Coastal Training Program “Planning for Climate Change” training sessions – Participated in “A Sea Change” documentary on acidification

National Academy of Sciences “National Climate Choices” – A suite of coordinated studies examining the issues associated with global climate change and providing advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond – CIG participating on two panels: 1) Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, and 2) Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change Linking Research to Coastal/Ocean Policy

West Coast Governors’ Agreement on Ocean Health o CIG providing guidance on Overarching Action 2: Climate Change o Section of Action 2 calls on the Governors to: “Partner with the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington and other relevant organizations to develop a database repository of actual coastal adaptation methods and case studies.” Linking Research to Coastal/Ocean Policy – cont’d

June 2008 MOU between Washington State and British Columbia. Under the MOU: – B.C. and Washington State will collaborate to address the scientific uncertainties around sea level rise, inform communities, and explore how best to protect coastal communities – A joint Washington/British Columbia coastal experts group was formed, of which CIG is part Linking Research to Coastal/Ocean Policy – cont’d

Puget Sound Partnership – CIG provides technical guidance on integration of climate change information in Partnership activities – CIG also involved via efforts to develop GIS-based tools for visualizing climate change impacts at very fine scale Linking Research to Coastal/Ocean Policy – cont’d

Peer-reviewed scientific publications, white papers, fact sheets, and other documents on climate impacts Linking Research to Coastal/Ocean Policy – cont’d