HIWeather “Research for Resilience” Brian Golding, Jenny Sun (presented by Sharan Majumdar) 8 th DAOS WG Meeting, Beijing, China October 27 th, high_impact_weather_project.html

Mission “Promote Co‐Operative International Research to achieve a Dramatic Increase in Resilience to High Impact Weather, worldwide, through Improving Forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and Enhancing their Communication & Utility in Social, Economic & Environmental Applications” 10-year WMO/WWRP Programme, established January 2015.

HIWeather Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu- nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Benefits in Operational Forecasting Data Management & Archiving

Organization Co-Chairs – Brian Golding (UK Met Office) – David Johnston (University of Wellington, NZ) Expertise in disaster management research Steering Group (each will form task teams) – George Craig (Predictability and Processes) – Jenny Sun (Multi-scale Forecasting) – Brian Mills (Vulnerability and Risk) – Beth Ebert (Evaluation) – (vacant) (Communication)

Multi-scale forecasting of weather-related hazards [DRAFT J. Sun, Oct 19, 2015) Observation and nowcasting -- with WWRP Nowcasting and Mesoscale? Improvement of rapid updated (~10min) analysis for nowcasting high impact weather utilizing remote sensing and in-situ boundary layer obs. Development of techniques of combining observation based and NWP- based nowcasts. Data assimilation Improved utilization of high spatial and temporal resolution observations in high resolution NWP models, including radar, satellite, profiler, and other unconventional obs. Development of techniques that can effectively assimilate small scale observations without distorting the large scales to obtain multi-scale balanced initial conditions. Characterization of observation errors and background errors and biases applicable to convective-scale data assimilation Model development Development of a new generation of scale adaptive parameterization schemes, with emphasis on PBL, microphysics, and cloud-related turbulence Optimization of ocean-atmosphere-aerosol-land surface coupling strategies for small scales and short-to-medium lead time forecasts Ensemble forecasting Design of perturbation uncertainties to represent initial uncertainties for different time scales and new perturbation strategies to overcome underspreading in surface weather parameters Post-processing, product generation, and human interpretation Post-processing and interpretation of ensemble product for the application of convective-scale high impact weather prediction

DAOS Role? From Brian Golding ( , Oct ) “Great to see a developing relationship between the HIWeather Forecasting theme and DAOS! I would certainly want to encourage that. DAOS has contributed significantly to defining the activities in the HIWeather implementation plan, and I hope that DAOS may be able to take ownership of some of those activities through its members.”

Planned meetings relevant to DAOS HIWeather Workshop – April in Exeter, UK. WMO WWRP 4th International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very-short-range Forecast 2016 (WSN16) – July 2016 in Hong Kong Workshop/conference on convective-scale initialization – 2017?

Notes from correspondence with B. Golding, October 19, 2015 Workshop/conference on convective-scale initialisation in 2017, potentially with DAOS involved. – Combining it with another meeting desirable – Quadrennial WMO DA meeting would be ideal. – The issue will be whether DAOS is happy to dive into km-scale observing & DA, at least for part of the meeting. From a HIWeather point of view, key challenges: – Use of high resolution observations (including unconventional sources) especially those with “large” and/or correlated errors – Multi-scale initialisation – especially initialising convection without upsetting larger scale balances. – Coupled initialisation at high resolution – especially consistent land surface/atmosphere initialisation, but also coastal ocean and lake states. HIWeather implementation plan hints at intercomparison of techniques used for km-scale DA. Workshop: design and kick-off. DAOS might consider whether this is likely to gain contributions and if so, whether it could be included in their planning.

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Lead, coordinate and interface with field experiments, RDPs & FDPs to test key generic hypotheses in specific local environments Field Campaigns & Demonstrations Challenges: Building local capability & capacity Engaging the observing, modelling & forecasting research communities T-NAWDEX/DOWNSTREAM: diabatic influence on rapid growth of N. Atlantic waveguide disturbances & downstream forecast implications LVB-HyNEWS: causes of fishing fatalities from nocturnal convection over Lake Victoria and developing forecasting capability ALERT.AR/RELAMPAGO: urban flood impacts in the La Plata basin of South America, from some of the most electrically intense convection in the world Use of data from SCMREX, TOMACS, PECAN, CHAMP, HYMEX Testing of modelling capabilities in testbeds such as the HWT in Oklahoma Seek suitable demonstration experiments in fire, heat & winter weather

Extra slides AMS Presentation by Brian Golding, Jan 2015

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts in coupled modelling systems Challenges: New observation sources of weather, hazards & their impacts at km-scale for monitoring, verification and coupled modeling, including crowd-sourcing Compare/develop hazard nowcasting methods, inc NWP Develop coupled data assimilation methods that deal with frequent updates, new observations, multi-scale coupled error structures, strong non-linearity Develop coupled km-scale modeling systems for hazard prediction that adequately represent convective initiation, microphysics & land surface interactions Ensemble perturbations for multi-scale coupled models that produce well calibrated hazard probabilities Globally consistent hazard products Products tailored to user needs, especially when representing uncertainty Multi-Scale Forecasting

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Design observing networks that support km-scale impact forecasting while retaining adequate capability for the underpinning synoptic scale meteorology Observing Strategies Challenges: Designing achievable multi-scale observing strategies for monitoring & NWP Taking account of DA capabilities, especially in error specification Identifying the most relevant data sources for specific hazards Understanding the dependence of hazard forecasts on observation density Developing appropriate data access, exchange and quality control systems DAOS or MWFR?

Urban Flood: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from flood inundation by intense rain, out-of-bank river flow, coastal wave & surge overtopping and from consequent urban landslides. Wildfire: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wildfires & their smoke. Extreme Local Wind: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wind & wind blown debris in tropical & extra-tropical cyclones, downslope windstorms & convective storms, including tornadoes. Disruptive Winter Weather: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from snow, ice and fog to transport, power & communications infrastructure. Urban Heat Waves & Air Pollution: Reducing mortality, morbidity and disruption from extreme heat & pollution in the megacities of the developing and newly developed world. © © © Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport © Adrian Pearman/Caters Scope defined by a set of hazards...

WMO OMM …their impacts, Dirty water in the “wrong” place Buildings damaged DepthVelocityDirt/Trash Landslide Contents destroyed Transport blocked Water/energy interrupted Business interrupted Illness Contamination Bankruptcy Redundancy Distress Death Recovery cost Rain Run-offRiverDrains Breach/ Overtopping Pollutants Injury Occupants displaced Food/fuel shortage Drowning Storm surge Ocean Waves WindPressureSnowTemperature Snow Melt

…mitigation actions,

…the required information, ? P msl H 500 The Gulf coast of Florida Outlook for days 3-5 A 10% chance of a shower ?? 20% prob of intense rain within 30km between 1-2pm tomorrow

…define our five research pillars Understanding the processes & predictability of weather systems that generate hazards Multi-scale forecasting of hazards using coupled numerical weather, ocean, land surface, ice & air quality modelling, nowcasting, data assimilation & post-processing systems. Forecasting the human impacts, exposure, vulnerability & risk of hazards to people, buildings, businesses, infrastructure and the environment using a variety of tools. Communicating hazard forecasts & warnings so as to reach vulnerable communities and achieve responses from risk managers and the public that increase resilience. Evaluating hazardous weather, impact & risk forecasts, alerts & warnings and the resulting responses with user-relevant metrics. supported by eight cross-cutting activities

The HIWeather Challenges

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Predictability & Processes Develop knowledge & understanding of processes relevant for initiation & evolution of hazard-related weather systems and processes that are important for their prediction Danish Met Office Challenges: conditioning of convective-scale hazards by large scale processes in tropical & extra-tropical latitudes and implications for predictability differences in hazard predictability from “normal” weather and association with forecasts that are very sensitive to initial state mechanisms for quasi-stationary hazardous weather systems role of diabatic heating in dynamical structure role of boundary layer and land surface pre-conditioning of the land surface for hazards knowledge of processes specific to individual hazards

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts in coupled modelling systems Challenges: New observation sources of weather, hazards & their impacts at km-scale for monitoring, verification and coupled modeling, including crowd-sourcing Compare/develop hazard nowcasting methods, inc NWP Develop coupled data assimilation methods that deal with frequent updates, new observations, multi-scale coupled error structures, strong non-linearity Develop coupled km-scale modeling systems for hazard prediction that adequately represent convective initiation, microphysics & land surface interactions Ensemble perturbations for multi-scale coupled models that produce well calibrated hazard probabilities Globally consistent hazard products Products tailored to user needs, especially when representing uncertainty Multi-Scale Forecasting

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings through assessment of the impact of the predicted hazard on individuals, communities and businesses, their vulnerability and hence their risk Challenges: Growing research capacity in human impacts, vulnerability & risk Synthesising current fragmented work, including on immediate & delayed impacts, high consequence events & use of analogues Using social media to construct & validate models Representing the dynamic nature of vulnerability from socio-economic datasets Identifying & characterising vulnerability especially in rarely exposed populations Understanding counter-intuitive warning responses Vulnerability & Risk

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Achieve more effective responses to forecasts through better communication of hazard forecasts & warnings and hazard impacts Challenges: Diagnosing & synthesising understanding of the effectiveness of different communication methods Understanding how social media can be used effectively in communication Understanding the reasons for lack of trust in forecasts & warnings & sharing of success stories in building up trust Developing good practice in communicating forecasts & warnings Growing capacity in these areas of work Communication

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Measure skill and value of forecasts & warnings at all stages of the production process so as to focus research in weak areas and to support users in developing appropriate responses Challenges: Identifying appropriate verification methods for hazards Understanding the profile of information loss through the production chain Understanding the performance information that will enable users to develop appropriate response strategies Measuring weather-related impacts and human responses Developing capability to comprehensively assess the economic value of forecasting & warning services Growing capacity in the verification of hazards, impacts and responses User-Oriented Evaluation

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Work with operational forecasters to enable an increased focus on impacts & communication through use of automated guidance Challenges: Providing evidence to support effective hazard communication Providing evidence of track record to support confidence estimates Providing supporting information to forecast guidance Providing automated guidance where helpful Operational Forecasting

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Design observing networks that support km-scale impact forecasting while retaining adequate capability for the underpinning synoptic scale meteorology Observing Strategies Challenges: Designing achievable multi-scale observing strategies for monitoring & NWP Taking account of DA capabilities, especially in error specification Identifying the most relevant data sources for specific hazards Understanding the dependence of hazard forecasts on observation density Developing appropriate data access, exchange and quality control systems

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Uncertainty is a key cross-cutting theme, from predictability of the km- scale meteorology through the hazards &impacts to people‘s responses Uncertainty Challenges: Designing model parametrizations that take account of uncertainty Establishing a culture of uncertainty in our science and in the advice we give

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Lead, coordinate and interface with field experiments, RDPs & FDPs to test key generic hypotheses in specific local environments Field Campaigns & Demonstrations Challenges: Building local capability & capacity Engaging the observing, modelling & forecasting research communities T-NAWDEX/DOWNSTREAM: diabatic influence on rapid growth of N. Atlantic waveguide disturbances & downstream forecast implications LVB-HyNEWS: causes of fishing fatalities from nocturnal convection over Lake Victoria and developing forecasting capability ALERT.AR/RELAMPAGO: urban flood impacts in the La Plata basin of South America, from some of the most electrically intense convection in the world Use of data from SCMREX, TOMACS, PECAN, CHAMP, HYMEX Testing of modelling capabilities in testbeds such as the HWT in Oklahoma Seek suitable demonstration experiments in fire, heat & winter weather

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Share understanding of issues in each of the areas involved in forecasting, warning & communication Knowledge Transfer Challenges: Transferring hazard forecasting expertise to NMHSs in developing countries Attracting young researchers into hazard forecasting fields of research Matching the transfer of capability to the current ability of recipients Ensuring the transferability of new forecasting methods Matching communications research to local language & culture

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Make use of appropriate verification methods in all parts of the forecasting & warning chain to inform and evaluate research Verification Challenges: Understanding the propagation of error & value through the production chain from observation to forecast, warning and user decisions Connecting verification metrics to process understanding & model improvement Matching verification metrics to user requirements

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Ensure a focus on the decisions that will mitigate weather-related hazard impacts at all stages in the production chain Impact Forecasting Challenges: Understanding the relationship between weather, related hazards, and their impacts

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger Ensure that field & model data produced during HIWeather are used effectively for research Data Management & Archiving Challenges: Enabling easy access to observations, forecasts & products from field campaigns, case studies, inter-comparisons, reanalyses & surveys

taking part Orientation of planned research programmes to internationally identified priorities Sharing of expertise through international reviews Invitations to international participation in national projects Participation in international projects with relevant objectives