Ian Shepherdson Chief Economist Pantheon Macroeconomics September 11, 2015 How will the ECB respond to Fed tightening? U.S. Rates and Europe:

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 1 Presented by: Sara L. Johnson Managing Director Global Macroeconomics Group DRI-WEFA August 7, 2001 The U.S. Economic Outlook: Turbulent Times.

Advertisements

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

John Rose Chief Economist Financial Services The Economic Impact of the Late Night Economy June 28, 2012 The Economic Impact of the Late Night Economy.

Economic & Investment Update GK Wealth Management Limited Jim Power Chief Economist, Friends First April 30th 2008.

Warm-Up People who own stock in companies may receive cash payments based on how much profit the companies make. Name 2 companies you would invest in.

1 ACE Sheffield 25 April 2012 The UK Economy and the next five years Roger Martin-Fagg Behavioural Economist.

Presented by: Robert F. DeLucia, C.F.A. Senior Economist Quarterly Economic And Financial Market Outlook November 2004.

The Comerica Economic Outlook The Mid-Cycle U.S. Economy in a Multi-Speed World Robert A. Dye Chief Economist, Comerica Bank January 2015.

Measuring GDP and Economic Growth Chapter 1 Instructor: MELTEM INCE

How Long Can the Business Expansion Continue? Robert J. Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor in the Social Sciences, Northwestern University, and NBER BAC.

Donald Kohn Fed Vice Chairman (hot). Inflation Risks (factors that suggest or permit raising rates) Increasing wage pressures (Bloomberg: labor costs.

Understand the role of business in the global economy.

PRESENTED BY GEORGE TSETSEKOS Dean Emeritus and Francis Professor of Finance March 26, 2014 DREXEL UNIVERSIY LeBow College of Business The Global Economy.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 17: Short-term Economic Fluctuations 1.Identify the.

Unit A Business in a Changing World Section 1.04 Economic Indicators and the Business Cycle.

The Causes of the Great Depression

Economic Activity in a Changing World

After the Recession: How Hot? David Wyss Chief Economist TVB New York September 8, 2004.

Economic Measurements Chapter 4

Certificate for Introduction to Securities & Investment (Cert.ISI) Unit 1 Lesson 12:  The impact on markets of economic data  Gross Domestic Product.

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

Chapter 25 Section 1 The Cold War Begins Section 1 Causes of the Depression 21.1 Objectives Discuss the weaknesses in the economy of the 1920s. Explain.

Essential Standard 1.00 Understand the role of business in the global economy. 1.

Economic Instability Text Correlation: Chapter 14.

1 GLOBALOxford Economic Forecasting VANESSA ROSSI, OXFORD ECONOMICS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2007.

The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight Jackson, Mississippi September 14, 2010.

THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

Causes of the Great Depression. Stock Market Soars Bull Market- long period of rising stock prices In the late 1920’s, a bull market had many people investing.

The Great Depression Great Depression. Election of 1928 Alfred E. Smith Herbert Hoover DemocratRepublican CatholicProtestant Opposed ProhibitionApproved.

© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Principles of Business, 8e C H A P T E R 2 SLIDE Measuring Economic Activity Economic Conditions.

Understand economic conditions

Freddy Van den Spiegel Chief Economist Economic outlook. Are we getting out of the mess? Brussels, February

Warm-Up: What do you think the term “Economic Indicator” means?

2-1Measuring Economic Activity 2-2Economic Conditions Change 2-3Other Measure of Business Activity.

After the Recession: The Shape of the Recovery David Wyss Chief Economist September 2003.

Ok, That’s Over. What’s Next?! Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. Crystal Ball Economics, Inc. Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.

MACROECONOMICS THE STUDY OF THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE.

“By the way, does anything other than ‘trouble’ rhyme with ‘bubble’?”

Causes of the Great Depression Terms and People Herbert Hoover – former Secretary of Commerce and Republican candidate for President in 1928 speculation.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Economic Review & Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Economic Indicators. Gross Domestic Product GDP per Capita.

Overview and Outlook for Georgia’s Revenue Situation and Economy Fiscal Management Council Office of Planning and Budget Ken Heaghney September 2015.

Introduction to Business © Thomson South-Western ChapterChapter Chapter 2 Measuring Economic Activity Economic Conditions Other Measures of Business Activity.

Macroeconomics SSEMA1 Students will explain and describe the means by which economic activity is measured by looking at gross domestic products, consumer.

UK Economic Outlook: What will drive future growth? 25 th November 2014 Richard Holt Head of Global Cities Research

2002 outlook FFG Global Investment Research February 2002.

THE ECONOMY AND YOU Chapter 8. LEARNING OBJECTIVES  Explain how economic factors impact financial decisions  Understand how demographic changes will.

Economic Outlook for 2010 Prof. Steven Kyle Cornell University December 8, 2009.

The Timing and Scope of the 2002 Rebound Michael R. Englund Chief Market Economist Standard & Poor’s March of 2002.

The outlook for the UK economy and manufacturing in an uncertain world Lee Hopley EEF Chief Economist 24 April 2012.

The Property Market Has Realism in the Market entirely set in yet? June 2012.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

Measuring the Economy. Vocabulary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP per Capita Base Year Business Cycle Prosperity Recession Depression Recovery Inflation.

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.

2015 Investment Outlook Yuntaek Pae, PhD, CFA Associate Professor of Finance, Lewis University.

Objective 1.02 Understand economic conditions 1 Understand the role of business in the global economy.

CHAPTER 2 Economic Activity. MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY  Economic growth is the steady increase in the production of goods and services in an economic.

Global economic forecast November 1st The economy has started to recover, but growth is heavily driven by short-term factors, such as a stabilisation.

Global economic forecast November 1st The housing market has stabilised recently but a sustained recovery is unlikely until 2011 Factors putting.

Global Overview & Australia – where to now for the multi speed economy Alan Oster – Group Chief Economist.

Economic Influences on Business

U.S. Economic Performance

Edmonton’s Economic Outlook

Economic Conditions and Outlook

U.S. Economic Performance

The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions

The Great Depression in Canada

HEALTHY ECONOMIES Discuss three measurements of an economy's health

AP Macroeconomics Coach Guttmann Unit I – Basic Concepts

Presentation transcript:

Ian Shepherdson Chief Economist Pantheon Macroeconomics September 11, 2015 How will the ECB respond to Fed tightening? U.S. Rates and Europe:

1. Can the Fed hike when industry is weak?

2. First came the hit from collapsing oil capex…

3. …And now the strong dollar is biting, hard

4. …China’s slowdown is beginning to hurt too

5. But China’s economy is not in meltdown…

6. …Stock market lunacy did not infect manufacturing

7. U.S. Consumers, meanwhile, are awash with cash…

8. …Don’t be misled by “weak” nominal retail sales

9. Auto sales are booming

10. The housing market is recovering strongly…

11. …And non-residential construction is soaring

12. The contrast between industry and the rest is huge

13. Most people don’t work in manufacturing…

14. …And most companies don’t export anything

15. Those which do, sell more to Europe than China…

16. Unemployment is now too low for the Fed’s comfort

17. …And it hasn’t stopped falling yet

18. Even broad rate is heading for previous hike levels

19. Hourly earnings are weak; better wage data are not

20. Core inflation today is not the problem

21. Some goods prices are falling; CPI is mostly services

22. Rents likely will accelerate much further

23. Some goods prices are immune to the strong dollar

24. And Obamacare won’t depress medical costs forever

25. A small rise in rates won’t kill the U.S. economy…

26. …But the legacy of the credit boom lingers

27. Corporates also can’t cope with prior rate peaks…

28. …Gross corporate leverage remains extremely high

29. Europe is enjoying a sustainable cyclical upswing

30. Performance is uneven but rising tides lift all boats

31. Structural problems remain severe…

32. …But parts of the periphery have made great strides

33. …And their sacrifices are paying off…

34. …Though from a very depressed base

35. But the French labour market remains sclerotic

36. Deflation risks are fading…

37. …But the recovery is still fragile

38. So the ECB won’t be following the Fed

39. EZ yields will be pulled by the U.S., but not as far…

40. …So the Euro will weaken further

40. The Great U.S. Normalization is Coming U.S. interest rates will soon start to rise; eventually, the Fed will have to move even if markets are volatile. The labor market is tightening rapidly – much faster than the Fed expected – and core inflation and wages are set to rise. Europe still has a business cycle, and the core Eurozone will surprise to the upside next year. The ECB will not follow the Fed, so the euro will weaken deflation fears will fade, and long-term rates will rise.