1 Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth Uri Avin, FAICP Practice Leader, Regional Growth Management, PBPlacemaking Baltimore, MD

2 Maryland State Planning Statutes § (a) Plan required.- The Department shall prepare and from time to time revise a plan or plans for development of the State. The plan or plans collectively shall be known as the State Development Plan.

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4 Series of unique GROWTH VISIONING EXERCISES held in four regions of the state. Series of unique GROWTH VISIONING EXERCISES held in four regions of the state. Key Principles: Key Principles: Statewide Statewide Privately funded Privately funded Action Oriented Action Oriented Reality Check PLUS © Paul Coelus, Waterford, Inc. 2006

5 NATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTH Research and Education at the University of Maryland NATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTH Research and Education at the University of Maryland The URBAN LAND INSTITUTE Baltimore District Council The URBAN LAND INSTITUTE Baltimore District Council 1000 FRIENDS of Maryland 1000 FRIENDS of Maryland Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust… Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust… More than 100 ORGANIZATIONS representing community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart growth and environmental interests were involved in this effort. More than 100 ORGANIZATIONS representing community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart growth and environmental interests were involved in this effort.

6 Hagerstown Community College

7 Baltimore

8 Post-event ANALYSIS COMPARISON SCENARIOS Existing Conditions Existing Conditions COG forecasts COG forecasts Build-out Build-out Reality Check Results Reality Check Results

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10 Compared with Buildout and COG forecasts, RCP results would have.. More jobs and housing close to transit; More jobs and housing close to transit; More jobs and housing inside priority funding areas; More jobs and housing inside priority funding areas; Less development on green infrastructure; and Less development on green infrastructure; and Less new impervious surfaces. Less new impervious surfaces.

11 The Maryland Scenario Project

12 The purpose of the Maryland Scenario Project is…. To take an informed and careful look at alternative long-term future scenarios; To take an informed and careful look at alternative long-term future scenarios; To conduct a quantitative assessment of each scenario; To conduct a quantitative assessment of each scenario; To identify where and how public policy decisions will increase the likelihood of more desirable scenarios. To identify where and how public policy decisions will increase the likelihood of more desirable scenarios.

13 The Time is Right for Several Reasons New administration with interest in information-driven policymaking. New administration with interest in information-driven policymaking. Strong momentum from Reality Check exercise. Strong momentum from Reality Check exercise. Mounting evidence Smart Growth not having intended effects. Mounting evidence Smart Growth not having intended effects. Critical policy decisions lie just ahead. Critical policy decisions lie just ahead. Because we can. Because we can.

14 Disconcerting Trends Chesapeake Bay not improving Chesapeake Bay not improving Persistent economic disparity Persistent economic disparity Unabated urban sprawl Unabated urban sprawl Inner counties near buildout Inner counties near buildout Continued job decentralization Continued job decentralization Increasing traffic congestion Increasing traffic congestion Transit capacity absorption Transit capacity absorption Development pressure on the Eastern Shore Development pressure on the Eastern Shore Economic ascendance of Northern Virginia Economic ascendance of Northern Virginia

15 Critical Policy Decisions How to finance Bay clean up? How to finance Bay clean up? Where to invest next in transit? Where to invest next in transit? Whether to build more bridges? Whether to build more bridges? Whether to toll existing roads? Whether to toll existing roads? How to target economic development? How to target economic development? Where to invest in land conservation? Where to invest in land conservation? How to manage drinking water supply? How to manage drinking water supply? How to revitalize Baltimore? How to revitalize Baltimore?

16 Scenario Analysis Exercise Identification of social, economic, environmental, political, and technological driving forces Identification of social, economic, environmental, political, and technological driving forces Development of scenarios from those driving forces Development of scenarios from those driving forces Spatial articulation of alternative scenarios Spatial articulation of alternative scenarios Evaluation of spatial scenarios Evaluation of spatial scenarios Policy sensitivity analysis Policy sensitivity analysis

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19 Elements of a Development Scenario Certain Events Certain Events Continued job growth in the B/W corridor; Continued job growth in the B/W corridor; Rising energy prices; Rising energy prices; Continued immigration Continued immigration Uncertain Events Uncertain Events Economic revitalization of Baltimore; Economic revitalization of Baltimore; High investment in intercity transit High investment in intercity transit Greater state land use intervention Greater state land use intervention

Elements of a Development Scenario Certain Events Continued job growth in the B/W corridor; Rising energy prices; Continued immigration Uncertain Events Economic revitalization of Baltimore; Sea level rise making Eastern Shore uninhabitable Rising incentives for development in PFAs

Urban Diamond

Urban Clusters

23 Ongoing and follow-up research Energy consumption model Energy consumption model Environmental impact model Environmental impact model Fiscal impact model Fiscal impact model Housing cost and housing type model Housing cost and housing type model Statewide transportation model Statewide transportation model Land use allocation model Land use allocation model

24 To where does this lead? Short term products: Short term products: 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public policy choices 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public policy choices A set of data and tools for future policy analysis A set of data and tools for future policy analysis Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities include…. Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities include…. Nothing more Nothing more A set of policy recommendations A set of policy recommendations A statewide plan A statewide plan

25 Partners for Land Use Success

26 Project Team National Center for Smart Growth National Center for Smart Growth Gerrit Knaap, John Frece Gerrit Knaap, John Frece Parsons-Brinckerhoff Parsons-Brinckerhoff Uri Avin, Marsha Kaiser Uri Avin, Marsha Kaiser ECONorthwest ECONorthwest Terry Moore Terry Moore Integrated Planning Consultants Integrated Planning Consultants Jason Sartori Jason Sartori

27 Funding Sources Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Homebuilders Association of Maryland Homebuilders Association of Maryland Enterprise Community Partners Enterprise Community Partners Chesapeake Bay Trust Chesapeake Bay Trust Cafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell Foundation Cafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell Foundation Others in the works Others in the works