Jan 11 (P)/ Jan 12 (W)- Warm Up 1. Empty right side of folder and put your papers in the correct section in your binder 2. DO pg. 95 Work individually or with a partner Write your answers in your class work, to be submitted Be ready to randomly share with the class 3. FINISH pg , be ready to present/ explain your answers Put your name on your sticky and then place it on the class number line. You have 15 minutes to complete ths warm-up.

0 to 1, 0 to 100% If the outcomes are equally likely, probability (event) = # of outcomes interested in total # of possible outcomes 1.Why is the smallest probability = 0? 2.Why is the largest probability = 1 or 100% ? 3.What does a probability of 2.3 imply? 4.Does it matter if probabilities are written as fractions, decimals or percents?

pg. 92 – 93 debrief Place your sticky notes with your letters on the number line 1. Are you basing your answer on observed data or intuition? Has it ever snowed in July in Florida? A. Since the outcomes are EQUALLY LIKELY, use the definition of probability p (event) = # outcomes interested in total # of possible outcomes

pg debrief B and C? how did you decide? D? List the possible outcomes So P(one head and one tail) = ? E? prime number? A number divisible only by 1 and inself F and G? H? what are the total possible outcomes? I? could you use experimental data from “waiting for a double”?

Instructional Objective Students will be able to calculate probability using the definition and area models.

Agenda- 1/11 (P)/ 1/12 (W) Warm up Announcements Discuss HW Rug Games, pg. 97 The Counters Game, pg. 103 Exit Quiz

Homework DUE NEXT CLASS- WRITE IT DOWN! pg. 102, Mystery Rugs Remember, P(event) ≤ 100% (a hint!) Make sure you include Want/ Know for full points!! Due today: pg. 94 and back Be ready to present your work

pg. 94 Paula’s Pizza 1. Can you list all the outcomes? 2. What do you notice about the two probabilities in question 2? 3. Why is the probability of Paula not getting what she ordered and the probability of Paula getting what she ordered equal to 1?

BINDER CHECK Please put your binder on your desk Make sure you have all dividers: class work, notes, homework, projects, assessments Please bring PENCILS, PAPER, and BINDER to EVERY class!!

Review- check your notes… 1. what is the difference between theoretical and observed probability? 2. Give a situation where outcomes are “equally likely”. 3. What is “bin width”? 4. Define mean, median, mode. 5. How can we calculate probability when outcomes are equally likely? RANDOM CALLING- lucky winners answer

Rug games, pg. 97 I have a rug at my house, and there is a trap door in the ceiling directly over he rug. The trap door is the same shape and size as the rug. From time to time, the trap door opens and a dart drops directly down onto the rug. The process is quite random, which means that every point of the rug has as good a chance of getting hit as any other.

Now, of course, my guests never sit directly on the rug (it is dangerous!), but they like to sit nearby and guess which part of the rug the next random dart will hit. To keep things interesting, I have a variety of rugs of the same size that I can put out on different occasions. Look at the first rug. Which color would you predict the dart is most likely to hit? What is P(gray)? P(white)?

pg 97 handout Each student will do their work on their own handout, to be submitted for classwork. Give your answer in fraction, decimal AND %s! Be ready for random calling presentations! You have 10 minutes to complete this activity. when you finish, please begin pg. 103, The Counter’s Game

pg. 97, The Counter’s Game 1. Read the instructions carefully. 2. Write your responses to questions 1 – 4 in your classwork, to be submitted. PREPARE FOR CLASS COMPETITION!

EXIT QUIZ 1.Give a example of a situation with probability = 0. Use complete sentences. 2. There are 2 red, 3 blue and 4 green marbles in a bag. You pull out 1 marble. P(red) = ? P (green) = ? 3. P(dark blue) = ?