© 2011 Stanford Univ Arnold Milstein MD Stanford Clinical Excellence Research Center Splicing Fresh DNA into Our Care Improvement Efforts October 3, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2011 Stanford Univ Arnold Milstein MD Stanford Clinical Excellence Research Center Splicing Fresh DNA into Our Care Improvement Efforts October 3, 2011

© 2011 Stanford Univ 1 Tape Wormis Buffetis 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Year Annual Percent Change Health Care Spending GrowthGDP Growth 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Annual Percent Changes in Health Care Expenditures and in GDP (Dental work by Dr. Milstein) Data from: 1) Truffer et al. (2010). Health spending projections through 2019: the recession's impact continues. Health Affairs;29: ) Heffler et al. (2005). U.S. health spending projections for 2004–2014. Health Affairs;23: %

© 2011 Stanford Univ 2 How are We Doing? Better Than Flatline, But Gap Remains Wide Business Round Table; 2010 BRT Global Competitiveness of Care Index; 2010

© 2011 Stanford Univ 3 Will Payers & “Power Providers” Permit Strong Enough VBP/VBID to Test Our Limit? Sum = + + Care Delivery Innovations Focused Improvement Bursts Manage for Daily Improvement Adapted from W.E. Deming Health Care Professionalism + Now? Later? Never?

© 2011 Stanford Univ 4 Current Value Acceleration Forecast: Sunnier But Not Yet Bright Care Delivery Innovations? (US, Calif., overseas) Focused Improvement Bursts (Improvement collaboratives) Manage for Daily Improvement (Uptake of control systems) Health Care Professionalism (MD Charter; Smith/Hillner)

© 2011 Stanford Univ 5 Visualizing the Need to Accelerate Higher Value Care Delivery Innovations Cost/Complexity- Increasing Biomedical Innovations Cost/Complexity- Lowering Biomedical Innovations Cost/Complexity- Lowering Care Delivery Innovations (Faster Flow Required)

© 2011 Stanford Univ 6 Clues for Aspiring Innovators DowneyLynchburg