Scenario Development The Steps

Identifying Driving Forces Purpose: Purpose: To identify the key trends and dynamics that will determine the course of the future.Steps: 1.Identify the drivers, in the context of the scenario themes. Consider key historical events, trends and underlying causes. 2.For each driver, describe briefly the range of possible ways it could evolve in the future.

Driving Forces Economy Demography Technology Governance Environment & Climate Change Society, Culture & Tradition

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (1) Economy –Sector based production( Agricultural Production, Mining, tourism, fisheries etc) –Infrastructure development –GDP –Globalization –Markets and prices –Growth rate –Economic dev goals (Poverty reduction, Privatization) –International Cooperation –Foreign investors

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (2) Demography (Population) –Population growth –Population density –Population Distribution –Rate of urbanization –Fertility rate –Population structure (Age, Gender) –Migration patterns –Life expectancy

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (3) Culture and Tradition –Beliefs – forest protection –Traditional ceremonies and practices –Traditional dances – use of natural resources –Tribal heritage –Customary land tenure – Extraction of Medicinal plants –Religion –Free ranging

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (4) Technology –IKS –ICT –CDM –Green economy –Agrochemicals, agroforestry –Land mngt technologies –Use of machinery –Construction industry tech

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (5) Environment and Climate Change –Land degradation (erosion, deforestation, salinisation) –Pollution (chemical waste, water air, sound pollution, loud noise) –Climate change –Desertification –Extreme environ hazards (floods, drought)

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (6) Social Change –Education (adult, formal, informal, non formal) –Consumption patterns –Brain drain, brain gain –Improvement in health systems –Refugees

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (7) Governance –Regional treaties and conventions –Multilateral env agreements –Decentralization –Political will –Democratization process –Economic policies –Public awareness, local participation in env mngt

Scenario Framework The framework for MEAO scenario development has been tailored to AEO and IEA in three ways: 1.It is explicitly policy-relevant; 2.It is intended to be comprehensive enough to allow a broad range of issues that arise in sustainability analyses; and 3.It is presented as a participatory, stakeholder-driven process.

Select Critical Uncertainties Purpose: Purpose: To select critical uncertainties, and use these to define the scenario framework. Output: Output: Two (or three) critical uncertainties, selected from among the drivers developed in Step 5. A critical uncertainty is a driver that is especially important in determining how the future evolves, but whose future development is highly unpredictable.

Selecting Critical Uncertainties For each driving force: degree of uncertainty 1.Consider the degree of uncertainty. Is there a great deal of uncertainty, or relatively little? relative impact/importance 2.Consider the relative impact/importance of this driving force into the future. 3.Plot the driving force 3.Plot the driving force on the chart of impact/importance versus uncertainty. two or three driving forces 4.Identify the two or three driving forces that are highest impact and highest uncertainty.

Which Driving Forces are Critical Uncertainties Uncertainty Importance Social Change Economy

Plot the Scenario Axes - Framework “Scenario A” “Scenario B” “Scenario C”“Scenario D” Critical Uncertainty #2 Critical Uncertainty #1

Example 2: Malawi’s scenario

MA: From Present to Future

Illustration: Qualitative Trends in Drivers

GROUP WORK 2 Qualitative Trends of Key Drivers Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Demography Economy Environment Technology Culture and Tradition Society Governance

Elaborating the Scenarios (1) For each scenario, consider 5 areas: 1.Current state: Aspects of today’s world that represent characteristics of the scenario being developed. 2.End picture: The end vision of the scenario, assuming that critical uncertainties have been resolved. 3.Timeline: Connect the current state to the end picture through a plausible historical route

Elaborate the Scenarios (2) 4.Create a coherent narrative using current state, end picture and timeline. Add detail and texture. 5.Create a name for each scenario that captures the essence of the scenario and differentiates it clearly from others.

Elaborating Scenario Boundaries Spatial Temporal Boundaries Spatial Temporal Story of the Present Historic context Important features Actors and events Major issues of concern Story of the Present Historic context Important features Actors and events Major issues of concern Driving Forces Trends and processes at play Driving Forces Trends and processes at play Important themes Important elements of the story Important themes Important elements of the story Images of the Future Critical Uncertainties Resolution affects future course Critical Uncertainties Resolution affects future course Stakeholders Narrative Coherent vision Quantification Technical rigor Narrative Coherent vision Quantification Technical rigor

Elaboration Approaches: Forecast & Backcasting ? ? Forecasting Where is society going? Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?

GROUP WORK 3: Elaborating Scenarios Form Four Groups Representing the chapter Working groups 1.Elaborate on each Scenario responding to the instructions supplied 2.Present the highlights of your elaborate scenario storylines

Undertaking Quantitative Analysis Purpose: Purpose: To enhance and elaborate the scenario narrative with quantitative information. Output: Output: Specific, scientifically defensible quantitative information.

Quantification in Scenario Building Aim: To numerically express inputs, science- based relationships, assumptions, and results. Quantitative analysis should use tools that: Can be applied and compared across widely differing scenarios. They should not artificially constrain your scenarios. Are as simple, transparent, and user- friendly as possible. Can yield clear, useful results.

Example: Change in Total Population

Example: Absolute GDP Per capita

Example: Area of Bio-energy Crops

Exploring Policies Purpose: Purpose: To explore the feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness, and robustness of various policies. Key Points: Policies may be introduced at an early stage and may represent an uncertainty defining a scenario, Policies may be introduced as part of implementing a scenario. Policies should be analysed, including assessment against goals and targets.