A Case Study of the 18 th January 2015 High-Impact Light Freezing Rain Event Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic Region Heather Sheffield Meteorologist Steven.

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Presentation transcript:

A Case Study of the 18 th January 2015 High-Impact Light Freezing Rain Event Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic Region Heather Sheffield Meteorologist Steven M. Zubrick Science Operations Officer NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Sterling, VA

Storm Total Summary January 18, 2015 = Ice-related incident Credit: Google Earth Harford Baltimore Howard

Selected Impacts- Maryland Howard County 49-car pile up on a down-hill slope towards the Patapsco River on Highway 40 Baltimore County 30-car pile up near the intersection of Highway 40 and I-70 Accident involving a Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) bus in western Baltimore Harford County Accident in Forest Hill resulting in one fatality and three injuries

Outline Meteorology Pre-event conditions Synoptic & meso-scale Observations and radar Model Performance MOS guidance Nam soundings Hi-resolution models HRRR, RAP and SSEO  Summary

Pre-event Jan 2015 Weather The coldest Jan1-Jan17 Average Minimum Temperature in the last 15 years ( )

Synoptic Overview…

Observations…

00 Z Baltimore

06 Z DC PHL Wilmington Martin State Temperatures have dropped into the U20s L30s along and west of I-95 Variable winds in E PA/S NJ Baltimore

09 Z Temperatures have risen to above freezing around DC and south of Baltimore MD Light winds become NE DC Baltimore

12 Z Temperatures have increased across the Baltimore/DC metropolitan region Light NE winds continue in E PA and S NJ DC Baltimore Traffic accidents occurred between 11-12Z…So what happened?

12z IAD RAOB Road temps degrees around Baltimore- MD Chart

09Z <32° >32° DC Baltimore

12Z <32° >32°

Radar Loop Z KLWX 88D 0.5 deg Base Refl

9:54Z

9:59Z

10:04Z

10:09Z

10:14Z

10:19Z

10:24Z

10:29Z

10:34Z

10:39Z

10:44Z

10:49Z

10:54Z

10:59Z

11:04Z

11:09Z

11:14Z

11:19Z

11:25Z

11:31Z

11:37Z

11:43Z

11:48Z

11:54Z

12:00Z

12:06Z

12:12Z

12:17Z

12:23Z

12:29Z How did the models perform?

Model Performance MOS Guidance NAM soundings at KMTN and KILG HRRR and RAP forecast Courtesy G. Manikin, NOAA/NWS Environmental Modeling Center SPC SSEO forecast

MOS Guidance

12 Z KILG-Wilmington KMTN-Martin State

KMTN/KILG 1200Z 00z NAM Run

00,03,06z RAP/HRRR Forecasts VT 12z SUN PRECIP TYPE Courtesy: G. Manikin, NCEP/EMC

HRRR Forecasts valid 12z Sunday Courtesy: G. Manikin, NCEP/EMC

HRRR Forecasts valid 14z Sunday Courtesy: G. Manikin, NCEP/EMC

SPC Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity- SSEO 10z 11z 12z 13z 14z 15z Run z

Summary Traffic accidents occurred due to light freezing rain Cold early January 2015 for Baltimore Radiational cooling may have caused pressure differences and led to a NE flow from E PA/S NJ Light radar echoes moved across I-95 as warm air advection occurred a few hundred feet off the surface Upstream forecast soundings may have hinted at future conditions in northeast Maryland Hi-res models showed freezing rain, especially HRRR, RAP and SSEO MOS: GFS and NAM too cold Potential freezing rain events require a high level of situational awareness Monitor all surface observations, METARs, road temps and mesonets

Summary Northeast flow from E PA/S NJ settled in valleys where the ground was very cold =Ice-related Incidents Northeast MD topography

Acknowledgments Steve Zubrick, NWS Sterling Brian LaSorsa, NWS Sterling James Lee, NWS Sterling Geoff Manikin, NOAA/NWS Environmental Modeling Center Questions?