A. Wane (CIRAD-ILRI-PPZS), I. Touré (CIRAD-CILSS-PPZS), A. Dème (ENSAE-PPZS), A. D. Mballo (ENSAE-PPZS), I. Nokho (ENSAE-PPZS), Médoune Diop (UGB-ISRA) Dynamics analysis of pastoral income in a context of global change - Case study in Ferlo-Senegal (West Africa 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Development in Africa Dakar, November 2015

2 Climate change: direct impact and aggravating factor of global change in the Sahelian pastoral production systems (Wane et al, 2014) Climate shocks, variability and uncertainty Social challenge Market problems and shocks Regulation instability Social troubles (Agro)Pastoral production and consumption system

Key Challenge for the Sahel Annual variations in the Sahel rainfall index between 1900 and 2010 Seasonality With crisis: Correlation :... Surely / Causality : … Not consistently

Scientific challenge

Main Question: – What are the dynamics of (agro)pastoral income in this context of risks and uncertainties? Main outputs (tools): – relationships vis-à-vis the markets Descriptive statistics – income inequality. Lorenz and Gini index – income mobility Markov chains – towards sustainable wealth creation

Drilling of Tatki Survey 2005 Survey 2015 Drilling of Rewane Survey 2005 Survey 2015 Pastoral wells in Mbame Survey 2005 Survey 2015 Drilling of Thiel Survey 2005 Survey 2015 Drilling of Boulal Survey 2005 Survey 2015 Method

Drilling of Tatki Average income 2005 : 3,237,639 Average income 2015 : 4,307,494 Drilling of Rewane Average income 2005: 1,755,127 Average income 2015 : 2,589,131 Pastoral wells in Mbame Average income 2005 : 3,690,958 Average income 2015 : 3,597,407 Drilling of Thiel Average income 2005 : 2,247,444 Average income 2015 : 2,570,739 Drilling of Boulal Average income 2005 : 2,148,940 Average income 2015 : 3,017,981 Result 1- Creation of monetary wealth

Result 2 - Disparities according to sites Lorenz Ferlo 2005 (red), 2015 (blue)

Result 3 – Net scission between the driest North and the more watered South Gini > 55% Gini < 47%

Result 4 -Long-term dynamics of pastoral income ( ) Shorrocks indexRetrogradationPromotion Ferlo Survey 2005 Survey 2015 SmallAverageLargeVery large Small 0,380,300,200,13 Average 0,150,250,420,19 Large 0,000,110,200,69 Very large 0,00 0,070,93 Transition matrix

Some lessons of the case study The climate uncertainty makes difficult alternative economic activities when the pastoral production system appears economically viable. Pastoralists usually go to the market after having previously evaluated these basic needs. Self-bounded rationality contingent: characteristic of an environment with a non-perfect information system. Pastoralists know how markets work but markets do not pilot decisions in terms of production and marketing.

The socio-economic viability: better consideration in the national and regional economic policies more attentive to the pastoralism characteristics : – Inequality reduction (potentially source of instability) – equitable land regulation, – financial innovations (micro credit, micro insurance), – reduction of the asymmetries of information between the actors, actors and markets – reliable and effective IEWS. Towards « socio-economic sustainability »

Many thanks