Assessment & Planning All land ownerships All major upland systems

Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP): ILAP modeling software: ESSA Technologies’ VDDT & Path ( Fire and salvage Planting or natural regeneration Growth & succession

One State-and-Transition Model (STM) per PVT

WatershedPVTOwnerModeling StrataArea 101OWC_fmhf5101_OWC_fmh_f OWC_fmho1101_OWC_fmh_o16 102OWC_falf1102_OWC_fal_f115 Watershed Ownership-allocation Potential vegetation type

Current Veg Map (2006) Reclassified Veg Map (fwi PVT only) Table of current veg Key to translate from mapped current veg to model states Modeled states and acres for fwi PVT

Fuels Wildlife habitat Treatment finances Interpretations Watershed Design management scenario VDDT Models Wildfire-fuel hazards Terrestrial habitat Aquatic habitat Economic potential

Risk Low High Draft results – Subject to change

No Management – Year 50Restoration – Year 50 Risk Low High Draft results – Subject to change

Draft results – Subject to change Forest Service Other Federal Lands State Lands Tribal Lands Private Industry Saw Mill Current conditions 50 mile radius Kilometers Percent of dry forest ownership within 50 miles of selected sawmills Risk Low High

Volume (1000 cubic feet)

Acres Year Acres Year No Management Restoration Northern Spotted Owl White Headed Woodpecker Draft results – Subject to change

Willamette NF’s Northwest Forest Plan Land Use Allocations (lrmpPub) MA14a & b (mgmt_alc field) and AMA & Matrix (Withhd field) -> “harvest-able” the rest of the USFS area -> “other” Timber area Other areas

Partial harvest of stands YO Assume 75% of area available for harvesting will actually be harvested Don’t harvest again for 25 years (min) Model States  Size classes: small (10-15 “) & medium (15-20”)  Annual transition probability =.75 /# years in a state

Partial Harvest 20% 80% Partial Harvest 2

Partial Harvest 1 Partial Harvest 2

Yr 2017 (time step 11): Begin harvesting Acres in med & small size classes under no mgmt scenario = 5,000 Harvest 500/ yr for 10 years Rest for 25 years then repeat Optimize treatments and costs with analyzer

StateIDStrucNameStrucAbbrCoverAbbrStart AgeEnd AgeAG_SeralStageAG_SeralStage2AG_SizeAG_Density Pole_med_singlePm1DF2650MMPoleMedium 22700GrassForbGFDF110EEGrassForbNA Smtree_med_multiSm2DF5170MMSmtreeMedium Smtree_close_multiSc2DF5170MMSmtreeClosed Mdtree_single_PostDistM1pDF71100MLLMdtreeOpen Mdtree_med_multiMm2DF71100MLLMdtreeMedium

Generate initial conditions for VDDT/Path Combine/simplify initial conditions strata Summarize Path output Graph summarized Path output The full meal deal

End of Presentation Materials