Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Air Quality Forecasting in Europe Henk Eskes European ensemble forecasts: GEMS and PROMOTE Air Quality forecasts for the Netherlands

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 GMES

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 GMES and atmospheric composition / air quality GMES Atmospheric projects: PROMOTE (ESA) and GEMS (EU) MACC (2009 onward) Follow-up of GEMS and GMES Atmosphere Service Core service: Atmospheric composition on global and European scale

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 OMI and PROMOTE

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Greenhouse Gases (GHG) Global Reactive Gases (GRG) Aerosols (AER) Regional Air Quality (RAQ) Validation (VAL) Production (PRO) GHG GRG AER RAQ GEMS subprojects

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality RAQ Production of regional forecasts of chemical species and air quality indices based on an ensemble of air-quality models on the European scale

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality RAQ

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality RAQ

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Satellite Surface network Assimilation Air quality prediction Model Data assimilation

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 In NWP uncertainties in the initial state will diverge. In atmospheric chemistry (regional scale) the uncertainty is mainly related to uncertainty in model input data, physical parameterizations, or from gaps in our knowledge of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the surface. Impact of initial state rapidly decreases with increasing forecast period. -> In NWP the assimilation should first of all optimise the initial state -> In atmospheric chemistry the assimilation should target the model processes, e.g. optimise the emissions, boundary conditions, deposition.. Advanced assimilation approaches needed: Ensemble Kalman filter and 4D-Var approaches most popular Assimilation: NWP vs. Atmospheric Chemistry

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Assimilation: NWP vs. Atmospheric Chemistry Courtesy: Hendrik Elbern, Köln Forecast Analysis Initial-state Initial-state + Emission Emission

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Dutch SmogProg project, User Support Programme, NIVR, Aim: To replace the (simple) statistical AQ forecast now issued by RIVM Collaboration of three Dutch institutes RIVM, KNMI, TNO Based on Dutch LOTOS-EUROS model, and French CHIMERE model Region covering the Netherlands and surroundings (about 10 km resol) Use high-resolution meteorological input, i.e. KNMI - HIRLAM Assimilation of surface and satellite data NO2 from OMI on EOS-Aura First focus on ozone and precursors Project started beginning 2007 l Air quality forecasts for the Netherlands

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Two-day ozone forecast available on the web (demo service) Air quality forecasts for the Netherlands Plan: become operational in May ozone forecasts during summer.nl

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Daily variation in ozone: Chimère vs surface 4 Aug Aug Aug 2007

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 OMI near-real time NO2, October 2005

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 OMI overpass time, Oct 2005

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 LOTOS-EUROS + Ensemble Kalman Filter Developed at TNO / RIVM Interface between LE / Kalman, surface data and OMI-NO2 data available First experiments have started Assimilation of satellite and surface data

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Wang et al, GRL 2007 Pepijn Veefkind Is OMI NO2 related to concentrations at surface ?

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 Cities of the size >100,000 habitants

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 In a few years there will be operational systems in place for tropospheric composition and air quality forecasting / monitoring / reanalyses, similar to what is in place now for NWP Europe: GMES Atmosphere Service These systems rely on high-quality observational data on especially the troposphere and boundary layer composition: both in-situ (surface networks, aircraft,..) and from satellites Sustainability preferred: operational satellites (such as sentinels 4 and 5) development of assimilation is long-term investment High spatial resolution important especially for regional AQ Model resolution on European domain will be around 10 km or better emission distribution very irregular (points, lines), chemistry non-linear Multiple observations/day and (near) global coverage of importance for diurnal cycle of air pollution, daily monitoring, major events (dust/fire/transport) TROPOMI measures key compounds (O3, NO2, CO, CH4, HCHO, SO2,..) A TROPOMI - post EnviSat / Aura - would be major component of the GAS Conclusions

Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008 That's all