The McCain Nomination in 2008 The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule.

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Presentation transcript:

The McCain Nomination in 2008 The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule

Comparison of Super Tuesday 2008 & 2012

Republican Delegate Count to Date Needed to Nominate: 1144

Obama Polling Match-Ups Obama (48.6%) - Mitt Romney (45.0%) Obama (49.6%) - Rick Santorum (43.6%) Obama (51.8%) - Newt Gingrich (40.0%) Obama (49.5%) - Ron Paul (43.0%) Sourced from Real Clear Politics average of five polls (Rasmussen, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Politico/George Washington University, USA Today/Gallup and Associated Press/Roper) taken between 16th February–10th March)

Electoral Vote in 2004 & Electoral Votes Required to Win 2004 George W. Bush 286 John Kerry 251(-19) 2008 John McCain 173 Barack Obama 365 (+95)

The Kerry-Plus States Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Nevada New Mexico North Carolina Ohio Virginia

The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Electoral Vote) Colorado9 Florida27 Indiana11 Iowa7 Nevada5 New Mexico5 North Carolina15 Ohio20 Virginia13 _____________________ Total 112

The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 and 2012 Electoral Vote) Colorado99 Florida2729 (+2) Indiana1111 Iowa76(-1) Nevada56(+1) New Mexico55 North Carolina1515 Ohio2018(-2) Virginia1313 _______________________________ Total

Net Effect of Electoral College Redistribution States Won By Obama in States Won By McCain in When applied to 2008 Electoral Vote …… Obama 359 McCain 179

The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Margin of Victory and 2012 Electoral Vote) EVs Margin Share of Vote Colorado98.9%54.5% Florida29 2.8% 51.4%* Indiana111.3%50.5%* Iowa69.5%54.9%* Nevada612.5%56.4% New Mexico515.3%57.6% North Carolina150.3%50.2%* Ohio184.6%52.3%* Virginia136.3%53.2%* _____________________________________________________ Total 112 *Potential loss = 92 EVs

Obama – The Electoral College Maths 1.Needed to Win Electoral Votes 2. Total in 2008 – 365 Electoral Votes (95 in excess of 270) 3.Already lost 6 Electoral Votes from 2010 House of Representatives reapportionment. 4.Losses from six asterisked “Kerry-Plus” States = 92 Electoral Votes 365 – 6 – 92 = 267 Electoral Votes