Path to 270

Republican National Committee 2004 vs Election Results Bush/Cheney 2004 McCain/Palin 2008

Republican National Committee 2004 vs Election Results Kerry/Edwards 2004 Obama/Biden 2008

Republican National Committee Electoral Votes After Redistricting “Obama must overcome an electoral map that is not as favorable to him as four years ago when he carried OH, MI, PA, IL and NY. All those states have lost Electoral Votes to the South and Southwest. That puts additional pressure on Obama to retain a group of states that before 2008 tended to lean GOP: VA, IN, NC, NM, Co and NV.” (Dayton Daily News, March 14, 2012)

Republican National Committee Feb ‘09June ‘09May ‘09March‘12 May ‘09March‘12Jan ‘09Sept ’11 (2) Approval among every demographic group has fallen, including key parts of Obama’s coalition. (Gallup Weekly, 3/18/12– unless otherwise noted) Women Hispanics Young Voters Indpts (1) Jewish Voters (1) Defined as “Pure” Independent(2) From Sept. 16, 2011 report Job Approval: Key Demographic Groups

Republican National Committee -6.9 NM -1.3 PA -5.7 NV -3.2 NC -2.2 FL -.8 MI -1.9 IA -2.1 VA -2.6 NH -2.6 WA -2.8 MO -3.8 IN -5.3 OH -4.8 CO -.4 WI Job Approval: 2010 and 2011 Gallup Weekly Tracking: Job Approval averaged by state showing the comparison between 2010 and 2011 approval ratings. (Jan. 2012)

Republican National Committee Job Approval: 2010 and 2011 “In [10]…swing states that Obama won in 2008, Obama’s approval rating since 2009 has declined more than his margin of victory.” Time, January 2012

Republican National Committee Voter Satisfaction As of January 2012 only 18% of voters polled were satisfied with the direction of the U.S. No other president has fallen to such a low satisfaction number, in a reelection year, since George H. W. Bush in 1992 at 14%. Gallup, 1/16/12

Project 270 Republican National Committee

The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path Path for the GOP Nominee – Bush/McCain States *note: includes all Nebraska EVs States carried by John McCain and George W. Bush = 180 EVs

Republican National Committee The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path Path for the GOP Nominee – 270 EVs Needed States carried by John McCain + all battlegrounds = 342 EVs

Republican National Committee Path for the GOP Nominee – Historical GOP Battlegrounds The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path Bush/McCain States = 180 Bush/McCain States = 180 Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 TOTAL = 219 TOTAL = 219

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Indiana 2008 Election… Obama +1 (50-49) 11 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Picked up a US Senate seat Picked up the State House Picked up two US House seats Current Numbers … Obama advisors say Indiana is “out of reach”… Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 71,400 (BLS.gov)

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Virginia 2008 Election… Obama +6 (53-47) VA hadn’t voted DEM for President since Electoral Votes Unemployed Seeking Work: 262,487 (BLS.gov) - Nearly 30,000 greater than 2008 margin of victory Disapprove Approve Obama Approval Ratings Among Independents Elections… Swept all statewide offices (in 2009) Picked up the Governor (in 2009) Picked up the House of Delegates (in 2009) Picked up three US House seats Picked up State Senate (2011) Increased majority in State House (2011) (NYT 2008 Results) Quinnipiac, March ‘12

Republican National Committee Voter Registration: net GOP registration increase of 1.3% since Entire percentage point higher than 2008 victory margin Battleground States – North Carolina 2008 Election… Obama +0.3 ( ) 15 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Picked up the State Senate and House Picked up one US House seat Election Turnout: 2004 Bush: 1,961,166 vs. Kerry: 1,525, McCain: 2,128,474 vs. Obama: 2,142,651 GOP Increase: 167,308 DEM Increase: 616,802 Unemployed Seeking Work: 446,401 (BLS.gov) - Nearly 33 times greater than 2008 victory margin (NYT 2008 Results) (NC Voter Registration Data) Approve/Disapprove: Handling of the Economy (Elon Univ./Charlotte Observer, March ’12) Disapprove Approve

Republican National Committee Path for the GOP Nominee – Presidential Bellwethers The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs TOTAL = 266 TOTAL = 266

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Ohio 2008 Election… Obama +4 (51-47) 18 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Swept all statewide offices Picked up the Governor Held an open US Senate seat Picked up the Sec of State, Atty Gen, & Treasurer Picked up five US House seats Wrong TrackRight Track Unemployed Seeking Work: 469,289 (BLS.gov) - Over two times greater than 2008 victory margin Right Track vs. Wrong Track NBC News/Marist, March ’12 NYT 2008 Results -15 Approve/Disapprove: Handling of the Economy DisapproveApprove Institute for Policy Research, Feb. ‘12

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Florida 2008 Election… Obama +3 (51-48) 29 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Picked up the Governor (from Independent) Picked up the State Chief Financial Officer Held an open US Senate seat Picked up four US House seats Disapprove Approve Quinnipiac, Jan ‘12 Unemployed Seeking Work: 912,938 (BLS.gov) - Over 150,000 greater than 2008 victory margin Obama Approval Ratings Among 65+ Hispanic Approval on Obama’s Economy: 43% approve / 51% disapprove (Resurgent Republic, Jan ’12) NYT 2008 Results 27 % of active registered voters are 65+ (Florida Voter Registration, 11/30/11)

Republican National Committee Path for the GOP Nominee – 2010 Wave States The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs 2010 Wave States = 46 EVs 2010 Wave States = 46 EVs TOTAL = 312 EVs TOTAL = 312 EVs

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Michigan 2008 Election… Obama +16 (57-41) 2010 Election… Picked up the Governor Held open Attorney General Held open Secretary of State Picked up two US House seats 16 Electoral Votes EPIC/MRA, Jan ‘12 Disapprove Approve Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 14,200 (BLS.gov) Obama Approval Ratings

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Pennsylvania 2008 Election… Obama +11 (55-44) 2010 Election… Picked up a US Senate seat Picked up the Governor Picked up four US House seats Picked up State House 20 Electoral Votes Quinnipiac, Jan ‘12 Disapprove Approve Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 6,900 (BLS.gov) Obama Approval Ratings Among Independents

Republican National Committee Battleground States – Wisconsin 2008 Election… Obama +13 (56-43) 10 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Picked up a US Senate seat Picked up the Governor Picked up two US House seats Picked up State House Picked up State Senate Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 82,100 Marquette Law School Poll – January 2012 Wrong DirectionRight Direction -46

Republican National Committee Path for the GOP Nominee – Addtl. Vulnerable Obama 2008 States The Electoral College – The GOP’s Path Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs Bush/McCain States = 180 EVs Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs Historical GOP battlegrounds = 39 EVs Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs Presidential Bellwethers = 47 EVs 2010 Wave States = 46 EVs 2010 Wave States = 46 EVs Addtl. Vulnerable Obama 2008 States = 26 EVs Addtl. Vulnerable Obama 2008 States = 26 EVs TOTAL = 338 EVs TOTAL = 338 EVs

Republican National Committee Battleground States – Iowa 2008 Election… Obama +9 (54-45) 6 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Picked up the Governor Picked up State House Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 21,000 (BLS.gov) Wrong TrackRight TrackDisapproveApprove Approve/Disapprove: Handling of the Economy Is the country on the right track or wrong track? Des Moines Register / Selzer & Company, Feb. ‘12

Republican National Committee Battleground States – Colorado 2008 Election… Obama +9 (54-45) 9 Electoral Votes 2010 Election… Picked up two US House seats Picked up the State House Picked up the Secretary of State Picked up the State Treasurer Retained the Attorney General Unemployed Seeking Work: 215,987 (BLS.gov) - Nearly 20,000 greater than 2008 victory margin Obama Approval Ratings PPP, December‘11 Disapprove Approve (NYT 2008 Results)

Republican National Committee Battleground States - Nevada 2008 Election… Obama +12 (55-43) 2010 Election… Picked up the Governor Picked up one US House seat 6 Electoral Votes 2011 Election… Held a US House seat Unemployed Looking for Work: 166,293 - Almost two times 2008 victory margin Foreclosures: Nevada has had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for 60 straight months. (Realty Trac, Dec. 2011) Disapprove Approve PPP, Oct ‘11 (BLS.gov) (NYT 2008 Results) Obama Approval Ratings

Republican National Committee 5 Electoral Votes Battleground States – New Mexico 2008 Election… Obama +15 (57-42) 2010 Election… Picked up the Governor Picked up one US House seat Picked up the Secretary of State Jobs Lost since Obama’s inauguration: 27,500 Debt: Since Obama took office, New Mexico’s share of the national debt has increased by $30.7 billion, with each citizen’s share increasing $14, (BLS.gov) State of the State: Since 2008, New Mexico’s median income has fallen $1,418 (US Census website) Martinez Approval Ratings: 61% approve / 27% disapprove (Public Opinion Strategies with Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin, Metz & Assoc., Jan. 2012) (US Department of Treasury Website)

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