STATUS REPORT 19 th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5, 2006 Paul Poli (CNRM/GMAP) replacing Bruno Lacroix (DPrévi/COMPAS) With contributions from CNRM/GMAP and CNRM/COMPAS

2 Outline Introduction Operational suite(s) –Update on current configurations –New: 3DVAR assimilation in LAM, chemical transport model Test suite –NOAA-18 AMSU-A+MHS –Aqua/Terra MODIS winds –GOES/MTSAT cloud-track winds BUFR Issues under development –SSM/I –GPS ZTD Future Plans

3 Introduction : Ballpark Figures Total number of observation counts assimilated every 6 hours in Meteo France global model: 260,000~325,000 (Out of total rcvd) –SYNOP&BUOY(95%) –TEMP(82%) –AIREP(55%) –Wind Profilers(21%) –Geostat. Winds(7%) –ATOVS(4%) –Quikscat(28%) “ Conventional ” Satellite 40% to 60% of total obs used 00,12 UTC06,18 UTC

4 Assimilation/Forecast Suites Computing platform –Since mid-2003: Fujitsu VPP 5000, 124 PE –2 machines: operations (60 PEs) and research/backup (64 PEs) –Replacement expected 2006 Q4 Operational suites: –Global stretched –Global stretched, very short cutoff (00 UTC only) –Global uniform –Limited-Area –Ensemble Forecast Data monitoring User/password available upon request

5 Each Assimilation/Forecast Suite Two cycles running in parallel –‘Production cycle’: Short cutoff Long forecasts –‘Assimilation cycle’: Longer cutoff Forecast only +6 hours (first-guess for production cycle) Keeps the “memory” of the assimilation system

6 Stretched Global Model Horizontal Resolution 23km 133km

7 Supercomputer Platform Machine Load due to Operations only Global stretched model: 4DVAR analysis in 30 minutes, 24H forecast in 20 minutes

8 Modifications in Operational Suites since Last Data Exchange Meeting (April 2005) June 2005: Start of a chemical transport suite to issue air quality forecasts July 2005: Start of a 3DVAR assimilation for Limited-Area Model (LAM) over Europe January 2006: RS bias correction in global model

9 Chemical Transport Model Operational since 27/06/ domains: –Global/Europe/France –Horz. resolutions: 4°x4°, 0.5°x0.5°, 0.1°x0.1° Observations –Observations currently only used for validation –Plans to move to assimilation Forecasts of air quality up to 96H

10 3DVAR Limited Area Model Operational since 25/07/2005 Assimilates same observations as operational global model –With the addition of Meteosat-8 clear-sky IR radiances from instrument SEVIRI T2m and q2m –Without: Quikscat –Only over Europe –Using 3DVAR T. Montmerle

11 72H Forecast RMS Error of Global Models over Europe as Compared to RS Stretched Uniform NOAA-16 AMSU-B, Quikscat, EARS NOAA-17 NCEP SST, sea-ice mask from SSM/I HIRS, high frequency SATOB Aqua AMSU-A

12 Ocean Wave Models 4 models: –Global stretched & uniform, Europe, France –Horz. resolutions: 1°, 1°, 0.25°, 0.1° –Global stretched & uniform models assimilate Jason-1 and Envisat altimeter wave height data –Forecasts up to 102H, 72H, 54H, 54H J.M. Lefevre

13 Observations Usage Summary DatatypeContactOperationsTest Suite ATOVS E. Gerard Geostat. winds C. Payan MODIS winds P. Moll Quikscat winds C. Payan Conv. (RS, AIREP, TEMP) P. Moll GPS ZTD P. Poli (monitoring) AIRS F. Rabier (monitoring) N15,16,17,Aqua GOES,MeteoSat, MTSAT N18 Aqua,Terra

14 Passive Sounders Usage Summary Satellite/ Instrument NOAA -15 NOAA -16 NOAA -17 NOAA -18 Aqua AMSU-A Oper TestOper AMSU-B or MHS Oper Test HIRS MonitoringOper AIRS Monitoring

15 Current Test Suite Changes as compared to operational suite: 46 model levels instead of 41 Model top 0.1hPa instead of 1hPa New radiation scheme New physics scheme; now includes following prognostic variables –Cloud liquid water: in suspension, and falling –Cloud ice water: in suspension, and falling Addition of NOAA-18 AMSU-A and MHS Cloud-track winds from GOES and MTSAT now in BUFR Addition of GPS ZTD monitoring over Europe

16 Current Coverage in Operations of NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Production cycle

17 Current Coverage in Operations of NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Assimilation cycle

18 Test suite Coverage for NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Assimilation cycle Addition of NOAA-18

19 Current Coverage in Operational suite of Cloud-track Winds

20 Test Suite Coverage for Cloud-track Winds Addition of Aqua/Terra MODIS winds GOES&MTSAT-1R winds now BUFR

21 SSM/I Tests with only F13, F15 E. Gérard Over oceans only 250 km thinning SSM/I-specific quality control: –Cloudy areas (CLWP > 0.1 kg.m -2 ) –Rainy areas (BT 37V - BT 37H < 40 K)

22 SSM/I Tests: Impact on Analysis Total Column Water Vapor First guess Analysis  SSM/I assimilation adds water in the tropics – but later increments stable With SSM/I Without SSM/I E. Gérard

23 SSM/I Tests: Impact on Analysis Total Column Water Vapor Analysis with SSM/I Increments in SSM/I experiment Increments in control experiment Difference (analysis with SSM/I) minus (control analysis) E. Gérard

24 SSM/I Tests: Impact on Analysis Low Cloud Cover Difference More clouds with SSM/I Less clouds with SSM/I E. Gérard

25 SSM/I Tests: Impact on Forecast Geopotential Scores w.r.t. RS RMSStd. Dev. Bias Blue = ImprovementRed = Degradation E. Gérard

26 GPS ZTD Tests 1 mm ZTD  approx. 0.5 hPa surface pressure 1 mm ZTD  approx mm integrated water content GPS Transmitter ground-based GPS receiver radio link More than 500 stations over Europe, 11 processing centers  more than 900 distinct data sources Atmospheric refractive index

27 GPS ZTD Tests Station selection process

28 GPS ZTD Tests: Fit of ZTD Data by Processing Center w.r.t. Global Model Processing center with stations located in mountaineous area

29 GPS ZTD Tests: 4DVAR Assimilation time Predicted model trajectory (forecast) Analysis Observations Timeslots -2H30-3H00 -1H30-0H30 +0H30+1H30+2H30+3H00

30 GPS ZTD Tests Fixed station selection Fixed bias correction Automatic station selection Sliding average bias correction Blue = ImprovementRed = Degradation Blue = ImprovementRed = Degradation

31 GPS ZTD Tests: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over France (36H-12H) Frequency Bias Index Equitable Threat Score Probability of Detection False Alarm Rate WITH GPS WITHOUT GPS

32 Radiosonde Minus Analysis Temperature Bias [contour = 1K] ~1K at 150hPa Switch to raw radiances

33 Plans for the Coming Year 4DVAR assimilation in chemical transport model in test suite GPS ZTD assimilation in operations (global model) SSM/I assimilation in operations AIRS assimilation in operations GPS RO in test suite Limited-area model over La Réunion Transition of all suites to new platform

! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! 19 th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5, 2006