Improving Internal Migration Estimates: Update Esther R. Miller Presentation at blah blah

2 Oveview Description of Returns Based Methodology Description of People Based Methodology Scenario to Compare Differences

3 Step 1: Obtain Administrative Records and match by PIK Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files –Address as of April 15, 2002 (Y1) –Address as of April 15, 2003 (Y2) –Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent Social Security Numident File –Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF) –File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

4 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Return Based Methodology –Age Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category –Sex Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator

5 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Return Based Methodology (cont.) –Race and Hispanic origin Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s race and Hispanic origin from PCF

Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Person-Level Age, sex, race, Hispanic origin assigned directly from match to PCF Migration status assigned directly from Y1-Y2 FIPs code matche

7 Step 3Assign Migration Status: Compare FIPS code Y1- Y2 Y1 and Y2 FIPS codes Return Based Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 state and county FIPS codes Person Based –Filer matched across Y1-Y2 –Spouse matched across Y1-Y2 –All dependents matched across Y1-Y2

8 Step 4:Migration Scenario Type of Exemption AgeStateStatus Type of Exemption AgeState Filer64NJSameFiler66NJ Spouse56NJSameDivorce58MA Daughter14NJSameDaughter16MA Son20NJSameSon22NJ Son20NJSameStudent22WI

9 Step 5:Migration Scenario Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Filer65nonmoverFiler66nonmover Spouse65nonmover Daughter< = 19nonmover Son<= 19nonmoverSonAge <= 19 nonmover Son<= 19nonmover

Step 4:Compare Outcome – Return vs People Base Migration 2001 – 2002 Return Based Filer64 Spouse64 Exemption19 or younger All non-movers