Mr Dean Bowley Dr Coen van Antwerpen ORMS History Wargames HS The Theoretical and Pragmatic Basis for Australian Army Modernisation Research “If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be research, would it?” – Albert Einstein.

Central Themes  The problem domain is complex and coercive  The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist  Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical  Wargames provide a useful method of retaining the whole and defining the parts

Central Themes  The problem domain is complex and coercive  Complex adaptive systems within an uncertain environment  Long-term systemic intervention  Robustness and adaptability are the principle determinants of success  The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist  Formulation and solution are participative  Conducting the analysis is as important as resolving the problem  It is about organisational intervention and change

Problem Perspectives UnitaryPluralistCoercive Simple MachinesCoalitionsPrisons Complex Organisms, cybernetics Cultures, commerce Warfare Messes If I had time and anything like your ability to study war, I think I should concentrate almost entirely on the “actualities of war” – the effects of tiredness, hunger, fear, lack of sleep, weather…The principles of strategy and tactics, and the logistics of war are really absurdly simple: it is the actualities that make war so complicated and so difficult, and are usually so neglected by historians. Field Marshall Lord Wavell in a letter to Liddell Hart

Central Themes  The problem domain is complex and coercive  The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist  Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical  Formulation and solution distinct yet inseparable  All techniques, for many perspectives  Inherently multi-methodological

Central Themes  The problem domain is complex and coercive  The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist  Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical  Wargames provide a useful method of retaining the whole and defining the parts  Simultaneously models the world (hard) and surfaces world views (soft)  Combines threat, terrain, tactics and technology  Allows exploration and evaluation

Problem Formulation Problem Resolution IdentificationInterpretation WFE Operations Analysis Analytic (Seminar) Wargames Constructive (Closed) Simulation Human-in-the-Loop (Open) Simulation Live (Field) Simulation Influence Decisions STUDIES Historical Studies External Validity Internal Validity Application Human Sciences

Statistical Analysis of Operations Problem Domain and Validity Professional Military Judgement Threat Terrain External Validity Internal Validity Wargaming & Simulation Operational Experience

Why Wargaming “plans are useless but planning is indispensable” “solutions are useless, but intervention is indispensable” Attributed to Eisenhower Plan or Solution: “captures the regularities” of the system Planning; intervention: “understanding the world and the world views of the people involved”

A Final Word on Wargames & Simulation  “Probably no form of military study is more useful if properly conduct, as certainly none is so liable if misused.”  Characteristics  an active and intelligent enemy capable of developing strategies to defeat concepts and capabilities  quantitative adjudication of the physics of battles, engagement, movement, detection and logistics  a model of the physical and political context in which to observe strategies evolve in conflict  Model of terrain and tactics  Threat and technology as variables

Central Themes  The problem domain is complex and coercive  Complex adaptive systems within an uncertain environment  Long-term systemic intervention  Robustness and adaptability are the principle determinants of success  The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist  Formulation and solution are participative  Conducting the analysis is as important as resolving the problem  It is about organisational intervention and change  Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical  Formulation and solution distinct yet inseparable  All techniques, for many perspectives  Inherently multi-methodological  Wargames provide a useful method of retaining the whole and defining the parts  Simultaneously models the world (hard) and surfaces world views (soft)  Combines threat, terrain, tactics and technology  Allows exploration and evaluation