Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto/AFS Global Light-Vehicle Production Outlook ( China Becoming the World Hub?)

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION FORECAST After averaging 4% year/year increases the past four years, production growth in 2015 slowed to an estimated 1.4% gain to 88.9 million units 2015 slowdown due to lower growth in China and downturns in Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia. China’s growth picks up in 2016 while most other major production hubs recently in decline at least stanch their losses. Annual production tops 100 million by 2019

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto China, if it can keep its economy from imploding and continue steady economic growth, will continue as the bellwether for automotive production (and sales) Share for the rest of Asia- Pacific peaks in 2016, but begins to drop along with other regions, especially as Japan and South Korea- based automakers continue spreading capacity around the world LONG-TERM PRODUCTION SHARE BY REGION

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto PRODUCTION OF TOP 12 BRANDOWNERS (Rank based on forecast volume 2016 through 2022) Millions

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto PRODUCTION OF TOP BRANDOWNERS – CONTINUED (REST OF INDUSTRY) (Rank based on forecast volume 2016 through 2022) Millions

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Platform consolidation More production from globally based platforms Vehicle proliferation New volume to China  Lion’s share of new-platform starts  More foreign-based automakers initiating new products there first WHAT’S HAPPENING WHILE GLOBAL PRODUCTION CONTINUES ONWARD AND UPWARD

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto PLATFORM CONSOLIDATION The number of platforms globally peaks in 2016, then declines as global automakers consolidate architectures There still will be a spat of new platforms replacing older versions, including in some cases more than one New architectures expand the global manufacturing footprint of their owners

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto The Top 15 by volume will account for one-third of production by 2022 The Top 50 (out of 387) in 2022 account for two-thirds of global volume PRODUCTION BY PLATFORM VOLUME GROUPINGS – Top Heavy

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto REGIONAL GROWTH OF TOP 50 PLATFORMS Production in total for the highest volume platforms increases in all regions Biggest gains in China Top 50 growth in Asia- Less-China not as strong as other regions

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION: Production Share Based on Number of Regions Where Each Platform is Manufactured Platforms produced in all five regions will account for one-in- three vehicles built in 2022, up from one-in-five in 2016 Over 70% of production in 2022 will come from platforms assembled on at least three continents A major portion of the volume for one- and two-region platforms comes from General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler (due to the North American market’s penchant for big trucks), and from China-OEM engineered architectures South America and Middle East/Africa counted as one region for this chart Data includes all platforms

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WHERE PRODUCTION OF NEW PLATFORMS ARE ORIGINATING Production for most new architectures starting in China before spreading to other regions

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WHO IS ORIGINATING NEW PLATFORMS AMONG TOP GLOBAL PRODUCERS NUMBER OF NEW PLATFORMS STARTING OUTPUT IN CHINA BY AUTOMAKER 2016 – 2022

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto As major automakers expand globally, and developing markets continue growing, the number of programs (and nameplates) will increase to meet local needs Ironically, 2015 is a peak year for new-program launches even though a rash of new platforms debut in 2016 The cadence of new programs, or product intros, indicates the next peak circa 2025 PROGRAMS PROLIFERATE AS PLATFORMS CONSOLIDATE

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto NEW PROGRAM (PRODUCT) STARTS BY REGION New product startups appear to be waning in China, but just a lull after the bombardment of the past several years

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto PROGRAM (AND VEHICLE) EXPANSION AMONG HIGH-VOLUME PLATFORMS Even with globalization of platforms, successful expansion into global markets in many cases means some extent of product differentiation to meet local consumer tastes or regulations Thus, the number of programs on major platforms will increase by 23 in the next seven years  But nameplates off those programs, and the mid-cycle enhancements that go with them, will increase too.

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto HOW MUCH AND WHERE TOP OEMs ARE STARTING NEW PRODUCTS: GM could be in the best position going forward based on its new-product cadence – got the bases covered in North America, appears to be regrouping in Europe and progressing well in China. Toyota also well-covered globally and has a lot of money

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto REPLACEMENT /NEW VOLUME PEAKS IN 2020 Production from new programs peaks in 2020 By 2022, over 80% of production will be new or replacement volume of vehicles in production from 2015

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto CHINA TAKES LION’S SHARE OF NEW VOLUME 2022 (and beyond?) Japan- and South Korea- based manufacturers prime new-product volume in 2015 Japan/South Korea makers peak again in 2020 In between, Europe soars in 2018 and 2019 – largely due to makeovers for big trucks – soars for North America Chinas emerges again 2022

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Something will change over next five years – good or bad: Politics, oil prices, exchange rates, global and local economic health, manufacturer financial health, etc. A likely result: OEM consolidation--  Who in best position to survive next economic downturn or significant slowdown in demand globally or in major markets  Who lags in investing to meet 2025 (emissions and fuel efficiency standards) WHAT WILL CHANGE THE OUTLOOK AND WHO IS BEST SET FOR IT?

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Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Global production covering 6 regions Eight-year planning window, updated monthly Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A. VEHICLE FORECAST Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Realistic picture of powertrain volumes Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric Eight-year forecast, updated monthly POWERTRAIN FORECAST Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume PRODUCT CYCLES Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Talk with us today to learn how WardsAuto can help you Lisa Williamson m Nakia Elsaidi