National Tribal Forum on Air Quality June, 2011 Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner Swinomish Indian Tribal Community

Understanding the challenges of climate change Changes will happen regardless of action; how best to adapt Changes not the same everywhere, vary locally and regionally Changes will continue long term; thinking across generations Uncertainty in data and projections, change may occur faster than projected Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation IEA 2011: GHG emissions higher than ever, still increasing

Some terms and references: IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations) Mitigation: Actions to try to reduce the causes of climate change Adaptation: Actions to respond to the unavoidable effects of climate change, either actual or projected Adaptive capacity: ability to respond to or accommodate changes Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

What Is Adaptation Planning? Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation A process for evaluating and responding to the potential risks to the community from a range of projected impacts.

Fundamentals of adaptation planning: underlying questions What are the important elements of the community? (what needs to be protected) What are existing conditions (not all changes are climate change), and what changes can be observed? (what is happening now) What community values are important to response? (adaptation goals) What is the level of awareness in the community of changes occurring? (outreach and communication) What challenges/constraints exist in the community for response? (implementation) Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Getting Started on Adaptation Preliminary scoping of issues, disciplines Assess organizational capacity, needs Organizational education and buy-in Define approach, methodology Identify funding, partners Community outreach Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Location of Swinomish Indian Reservation Fidalgo Island Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Swinomish Indian Reservation SWINOMISH INDIAN RESERVATION ISLAND FIDALGO Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Potential sea level rise, WA state (CIG 2006) Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Sea level rise scenarios, low-lying areas Sea Level Rise (conservative) Sea Level Rise (accelerated) New High Tide (conservative) New High Tide (accelerated) Local Response to Climate Change: Swinomish Case Study MHHW MLLW

Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation Chilberg Ave. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Swinomish Climate Change Initiative Two-year, $400,000 project 80% federal funding (ANA), 20% Tribal Univ. of WA Climate Impacts Group (CIG), science advisors Advisory Partners: Town of LaConner, Skagit County, Shelter Bay Community Year 1: Impact assessment, outreach, strategy scoping Year 2: Develop recommendations, action plan Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Preliminary impact assessment matrix Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Tribal Elders Tribal Leaders Tribal Youth Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Community Engagement

Impact Assessment (Guidance: CIG/King County guidebook) Impact Analysis: at-risk areas (zones), range/probability of impacts Vulnerability Assessment: inventory risk zones, sensitivity/adaptive capacity Risk Analysis: value of at-risk assets; vulnerability X probability = risk Technical Report (2009) Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Impact Assessment Report Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Review of climate data Broad impact analysis Many disciplines/sectors Risk zone mapping Inventory of at-risk assets Vulnerability assessment Risk analysis Basis for Action Plan

Inundation Risk Zones – Sea Level Rise, Tidal Surge Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Vulnerability Assessment of Wildfire Risk Zone, Swinomish Indian Reservation Structures Property TypeNumberAcres Approximate Value Residential 1,3681,995$ 493,688,000 Non-Residential 9143$ 4,806,000 Buildable Lots 18380$ 19,918,000 TOTAL 1,5602,218$ 518,412,000 Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Impacts on tribal traditions Fishing Cultural sites Shellfish harvesting Native plants Beach seining Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Strategy and Response Planning Goals for adaptation planning Strategy evaluation & priorities Community input Action recommendations Coordination, funding needs Implementation issues Action Plan Recommendations Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Adaptation Strategy Toolbox Incentives/non-regulatory Regulatory options and controls Practical/engineering solutions Risk prevention planning Emergency preparedness Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Strategy evaluation criteria Comprehensiveness: Addresses range of impacts and risk Sustainability: Long-term solution, not band-aid fix Dynamic approach: Responds to changing facts, circumstances Fiscal impact/feasibility: Considers financial commitments, term Community goals: Aligns with desires/needs of the community Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Community Engagement Events: School Science Fair Annual Tribal Clam Bake Earth Day Activities Communications: Tribal Newsletter Community Meetings Individual Interviews

Institutionalize across disciplines, sectors Look for “no regrets” opportunities Political barriers and constraints Relevancy to real world issues Partnerships: shared interests/burdens Funding: options and sources Toward Implementation: Mainstreaming Adaptation Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Land use planning Natural resource planning Transportation planning Infrastructure planning Financial planning Emergency planning Institutionalizing adaptation Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Coastal zone measures ($$$) Dike management authority ($$$$$) Regional access preservation ($$$$$$$) Wildfire control (Firewise) ($) Local emergency planning ($) Implementing Action Plan Priorities Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Evaluating response: how to define and measure success Ongoing monitoring: tracking science, data, conditions, and progress Reality check: adaptation goals Pacing response: incremental steps to deal with inertia, costs Dealing with the unexpected: adaptive flexibility in planning Maintaining momentum Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

The Ultimate Beneficiaries: Working for future generations Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Results of our efforts may not be seen in our lifetime, but it’s up to us to start.

Swinomish Climate Change Initiative supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Administration for Native Americans. Washington Department of Ecology (2006) Impacts of Climate Change on Washington’s Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of Risks and Opportunities, Publication No , November, Snover AK, Whitely Binder LC, Lopez J, Willmott E, Kay J, Howell D, Simmonds J (2007) Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI, Oakland, CA. IPCC Working Group I (2007). Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York. Photos: Channel Town Press (Doug Cole), Feb. 2006; Swinomish Indian Tribal Community. Presentation preparation/contact: Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, LaConner, WA, , More information and complete copies of reports available on the Swinomish Climate Change web site, Credits & References Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation