ECON 3039 Labor Economics 2015-16 By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 101.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Data, Methods & Measurement: Commentary Vincent Mor, Ph.D. Public Health Program.
Advertisements

The Economic Consequences of the Transition into Parenthood Wendy Sigle-Rushton Paper presented at the GeNet Seminar: Low Fertility in Industrialised Countries.
UNDERSTANDING AND ACCESSING FINANCIAL MARKET Nia Christina
1 Examples of Fixed-Effect Models. 2 Almond et al. Babies born w/ low birth weight(< 2500 grams) are more prone to –Die early in life –Have health problems.
1 Almond et al. Babies born w/ low birth weight(< 2500 grams) are more prone to – Die early in life – Have health problems later in life – Educational.
Grandparenting and health in Europe: a longitudinal analysis Di Gessa G, Glaser K and Tinker A Institute of Gerontology, Department of Social Science,
06_PVL_UK_APPG_Jun1 Population Growth, MDGs and Sexual and Reproductive Health Parliamentary Hearings UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development.
THE COLLATERAL HEALTH IMPACT OF SARS IN TAIWAN Daniel Bennett (University of Chicago) Chun-Fang Chiang (National Taiwan University) David Meltzer (University.
The Forgotten Beneficiary of the Medicaid Expansions Andrea Kutinova and Karen Smith Conway Department of Economics University of New Hampshire.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE OF GOAL ORIENTED ANTENATAL CARE AND ADHERENCE TO GOAL ORIENTED VISITS BY ANTENATAL CLIENTS 10 th SOMSA CONGRESS ST GEORGE.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau Female Genital Cutting, by Age Prevalence Among Younger and Older Women Percent Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN BRAZIL Ernesto F. L. Amaral Advisor: Dr. Joseph E. Potter Population Research Center.
Heterogeneity One limitation of the static LS model lies in the heterogeneity assumption. In reality, individuals differ in preference and in information.
Risk of Low Birth Weight Associated with Family Poverty in Korea Bong Joo Lee Se Hee Lim Department of Social Welfare, Seoul National University. A Paper.
Douglas Almond Joseph J. Doyle, Jr. Amanda E. Kowalski Heidi Williams
Econ 140 Lecture 241 Simultaneous Equations II Lecture 24.
Part I: Basic Economics Tools
Helena Skyt Nielsen, PhD Professor A A R H U S U N I V E R S I T Y S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s a n d M a n a g e m e n t Causes and consequences.
Saving Babies: The Efficacy and Cost of Recent Changes in the Medicaid Eligibility of Pregnant Women The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 104, No.6 (Dec.,
1 Life Cycle Effects of Fertility on Parents’ Labor Supply James P. Vere University of Hong Kong January 16, 2007.
© 2004 Population Reference Bureau Female Genital Cutting, by Age Prevalence Among Younger and Older Women Percent Source: DHS STATcompiler: accessed online.
Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys Data Interpretation, Further Analysis and Dissemination Workshop Overview of Data Quality Issues in MICS.
Problems in Birth Registration What is the National Standard? Why is the data so important? Joanne M. Wesley Office of the State Registrar.
Economics of Gender Chapter 6 Assist.Prof.Dr.Meltem INCE YENILMEZ.
Data Summary on Teenage Pregnancy in the Marshall Islands
Son Preference and Early Childhood Investments in China Douglas AlmondColumbia University & NBER Hongbin LiTsinghua University Lingsheng MengUniversity.
BC Jung A Brief Introduction to Epidemiology - IV ( Overview of Vital Statistics & Demographic Methods) Betty C. Jung, RN, MPH, CHES.
DOES MEDICARE SAVE LIVES?
Gastroschisis and Mode of Delivery: National Trends and Evaluation of Outcomes, 1991 to 2005 T. Mac Bird University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences College.
Trends in Preterm Birth, Cesarean Delivery, and Induction of Labor in Indiana Statistics from Live Birth Data
DISENTANGLING MATERNAL DECISIONS CONCERNING BREASTFEEDING AND PAID EMPLOYMENT Bidisha Mandal, Washington State University Brian E. Roe, Ohio State University.
Tax Subsidies for Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Costs Jessica Vistnes Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality William Jack Georgetown University Arik Levinson.
Determinants of Female Sterilization in Brazil, 2001– Ernesto Friedrich de Lima Amaral Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Joseph.
The Impact of Air Pollution on Infant Mortality: Evidence from Geographic Variation in Pollution Shocks Induced by a Recession Kenneth Y. Chay and Michael.
The Cultural Geography of Gender (Women in particular)
Population Projections: Social Security Administration Alice Wade, Office of the Chief Actuary Population Projections: Social Security Administration Alice.
 Fertility = the ability to have children  Total Fertility Rate = the estimated # of children that would be born to each woman according to fertility.
Centre for Market and Public Organisation Understanding the effect of public policy on fertility Mike Brewer (Institute for Fiscal Studies) Anita Ratcliffe.
Racial Disparity in Correlates of Late Preterm Births: A Population-Based Study Shailja Jakhar, Christine Williams, Louis Flick, Jen Jen Chang, Qian Min,
National Taipei University Antenatal Care Utilization and Infant Birthweight in Low Income Families Dr. Chin-Shyan Chen P1.
Has Public Health Insurance for Older Children Reduced Disparities in Access to Care and Health Outcomes? Janet Currie, Sandra Decker, and Wanchuan Lin.
Instrumental Variables: Problems Methods of Economic Investigation Lecture 16.
Schooling, Income, Marriage, and Pregnancy: Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment Berk Özler Development Research Group, World Bank December 1, 2009.
National Center for Health Statistics DCC CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION Women’s Health Data in the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG)
ECON 3039 Labor Economics By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 21.
Learning Objectives To understand the strengths, limitations and factors that affect different countries’ fertility rates.
Instrumental Variables: Introduction Methods of Economic Investigation Lecture 14.
ECON 3039 Labor Economics By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 41.
Tobacco and Pregnancy A Killer Combination. Objectives Learn about tobacco usage among pregnant women Identify the impact of tobacco on pregnancy and.
Using microsimulation model to get things right: a wage equation for Poland Leszek Morawski, University of Warsaw Michał Myck, DIW - Berlin Anna Nicińska,
Do State Parity Laws Differentially Impact Low Income or High Need Groups? Colleen L. Barry, Ph.D. Susan H. Busch, Ph.D. Yale School of Medicine June 2006.
Family Planning In Jordan
ECON 3039 Labor Economics By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 91.
ECON 3039 Labor Economics By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 61.
Explanations for the Decline in Health Insurance Coverage Michael Chernew, Michigan and NBER David Cutler, Harvard and NBER Patricia Keenan, Harvard This.
Remittances and Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Albania Ermira Hoxha Kalaj December 2010.
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Third Edition Copyright © 2010 Worth Publishers 1 of 24 Copyright © 2010 Worth Publishers.
ECON 3039 Labor Economics By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 71.
INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES Eva Hromádková, Applied Econometrics JEM007, IES Lecture 5.
Son preference, maternal health care utilization and infant death in rural China Jiajian Chen 1, Zhenming Xie 2, Hongyan Liu 2 1 East-West Center, USA,
Primary health care Maternal and child health care MCH.
Health Indicators.
Seminar presentation:
ECON 4009 Labor Economics 2017 Fall By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU
ECON 4009 Labor Economics 2017 Fall By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU
(Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE)
China’s One Child Policy
Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI)
Evaluating Impacts: An Overview of Quantitative Methods
UOG Journal Club: September 2019
Presentation transcript:

ECON 3039 Labor Economics By Elliott Fan Economics, NTU Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 101

IV Example: Fan et al. (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 102 Mothers shift the timing of birth for various reasons: – To obtain higher financial support – To better fit doctor’s/her own working schedule – To time childbirth after the school entry cutoff date. Increased C-section procedures are internationally prevalent: – In the US, elective C-section has increased from around 25% around 1995 to 33 % in – A fast increase is observed Europe and other countries – Health concerns escalated, but estimating health outcomes is potentially difficult

IV Example: Fan et al. (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 103 In Taiwan, many parents avoid births in ghost month, the 7 th month of the lunar calendar, which is believed to be the most inauspicious month of the year. Doctors cater to parents’ preference.

IV Example: Fan et al. (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 104 We document the shifting pattern around the beginning of ghost month. We estimate the effects of hospital competition (supply side) and parental characteristics (demand side) on shifts of birth timing. Based on the timing of conceive (thus, the due date), we employ an instrumental variable approach to estimate health consequences of expediting births. Our multiple-IVs approach helps address (1) self-selection, and (2) nonlinearity of heath effects of gestational age.

IV Example: Fan et al. (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 95 Key variables: Outcome variable (Y): health outcomes at birth Treatment variable (D): gestational age Instrumental variable (Z): due date (due week)

Number of births 6

7 Number of births by weeks of gestation

Sample: We focus on CS sample, with maternal age between 20 and 40. We drop births from emergency C- section, or mothers with risk factors such as hyper- tension, diabetes, and mal-position. Comparing those born in the last 3 days of June and those born in the first two weeks of June Note that those born in the first week of July are not a proper control group due to selection Regress a health outcome on a dummy indicating births in the last week of June, and other covariates (year of birth, day of the week at birth, maternal age, and maternal insurance type) 8 Simple difference approach

The estimates from the simple difference approach are potential biased, why? 9 Simple difference approach

1.Birth weight 2.Respiratory complications at birth (RDS/TTN) a)RDS: Respiratory Depression Syndrome, is a syndrome in premature infants caused by developmental insufficiency of surfactant production and structural immaturity in the lungs. b)TTN: Transient Tachypnea of the newborn, is a respiratory problem that can be seen in the newborn shortly after delivery. It consists of a period of rapid breathing, and is a sign for RDS 3.Other health outcomes – incident of low birth weight, infections, heart complications, and mortality in 365 days after birth. 10 Outcome variables

11 Simple difference regressions Simple Difference Regression Results for Males birthweightRDS+TTN (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) last 3 days of June ** ** ** **0.010* (12.978)(13.013)(13.053)(13.051)(0.005) birth year fixed effects XXXXXX maternal age XXXX maternal ins. type & prem. XX Observations 6,085

12 Simple difference regressions Simple Difference Regression Results for Females birthweightRDS+TTN (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) last 3 days of June * * * * (13.681)(13.753)(13.698)(13.687)(0.004) birth year fixed effects XXXXXX maternal age XXXX maternal ins. type & prem. XX Observations 5,140

Instrumental variables Theoretically, given that most of CSs are scheduled in week 39 or earlier, those who would reach week 39 before July should have no incentive to alter the birth timing. However, those who would reach w39 in the first week of July would have incentives to shifts the birth delivery from w39 to w38. Specifically, we use three IVs 1.being due in the 2nd week of July 2.being due in the 3rd week of July 3.being due in the 4th week of July 13

14 Gestational age at birth

15 IV strategy – validation (births)

16 IV strategy – validation (maternal age)

17 IV strategy – validation (maternal income)

IV Example: Fan et al. (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 918 The 3 requirements: First stage: very strong Independence assumption: Are due weeks randomly determined? Exclusion restriction: Do due weeks affect birth outcomes only through shortened gestation weeks?

19 IV strategy We use three the IVs for three endogenous variables -- gestational period of 36, 37, and 38 weeks, leaving weeks as the benchmark group. Our IV sample comprises C-section births who are due in the first four weeks of July and those who are due in the last weeks of June, despite their actual birthdates

20 Second stage results Table 8: 2SLS results Birth weightRespiratory complications (1)(2)(3)(4) MalesFemales MalesFemales Week ** ***0.179 ( )( )(0.177)(0.118) Week ** *0.184**0.016 ( )( )(0.083)(0.044) Week *** *0.020 ( )( ) (0.051)(0.036) Observations11,6639,812 11,6639,812

21 OLS results Table 8: 2SLS results Birth weightRespiratory complications (1)(2)(3)(4) MalesFemales MalesFemales Week *** ***0.064***0.036*** (16.834)(20.251)(0.011)(0.010) Week *** ***0.020***0.015*** (10.336)(11.161)(0.004) Week *** *** (9.086)(9.445)(0.003)(0.002) Observations11,6639,812 11,6639,812

Our IV results are different from OLS results from medical studies, mostly suggesting more serious health complications caused by shortened gestational period. OLS estimates may be plagued by confounding factors We don’t know much about our compliers so far: – We know that they are more likely to be self-employed Next: finding more demand side factors; long run impacts; IV for competition 22 Discussion and Conclusions

IV and DD Example: Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1023 In recent years, one in ve marriages in Taiwan was to a foreign bride, mainly from China and Vietnam, fellow East Asian countries but substantially poorer. Studying the impact on the domestic marriage market.

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1024

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1025

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1026 Background: Taiwan is one of the earliest East Asian countries importing foreign brides -- the share of foreign brides in South Korea today is about at the level that Taiwan reached in In the late 2003, the Taiwanese government took measures to radically reduce the flow of foreign brides. Between 2003 and 2004, the share of foreign bride (FBS) among new marriages dropped by 25 percent nation-wide.

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1027 In recent years, one in ve marriages in Taiwan was to a foreign bride, mainly from China and Vietnam, fellow East Asian countries but substantially poorer. Studying the impact on the domestic marriage market. An influx of foreign brides could have two effects. – Faced with a better alternative, men's divorce threshold could shift, triggering divorce at a higher fertility level. Faced with heightened risk of marriage termination, women might increase effort, resulting in a rightward shift in the fertility distribution. – Whereas the net effect of divorce risk is ambiguous, the prediction for fertility is clear: fertility would increase.

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1028

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1029

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1030

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 931 Key variables: Outcome variable (Y): fertility + divorce hazard Treatment variable (D): supply of ‘brides’ Instrumental variable (Z): local sex ratio + policy change

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1032 Difference-in-Difference estimation: Treat: is a dummy variable indicating whether it is post-2003 policy or not; SexRatiosQ v: are imputed at the township-level for those between age in 2000 and we divide villages into quartiles by sex ratio

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 1033 IV estimation: The first stage is:

Edlund, Liu and Liu (2015) Elliott Fan: Labor 2015 Fall Lecture 934 The 3 requirements: First stage: very strong Independence assumption: Are policy timing and local sex ratio random? Exclusion restriction: Do policy timing and local sex ratio affect outcomes only through changing foreign bride share?