Epistemology and Methods Research Questions, Puzzles and the Study of Causation 9 March 2010

Research Design Reminder: Positivist Epistemology Explaining vs. understanding Planning your research (check list) Examples from IR, comparative politics, European integration, IPE (“personal” selection bias) Pluralism of methods (more an qualitative research) 3 sessions on research design preparation and 3 sessions on methods…

How to get started: research topic Choosing a research topic KKV approach (ambitious…) Choose a hypothesis seen as important in the literature, but where a systematic study lacks (lack of sufficient testing) Choose a hypothesis, we suspect is false and investigate this… Provide (“resolve”) further evidence in an ongoing debate Design research to illuminate unquestioned assumptions in the literature Or a topic has been overlooked (KKV, 16-17)

How to get started: research topic There is no methodological or instrumental way to search for a research topic (Geddes, chapter 2) KKV+ (Emotions at this stage are important…) Curiosity, fascination, intuition, irritation, obsession… “why some event or process has happened” Creativity: “Good scholarship arises from the interaction of observation and conjecture”

How to get started: research topic “Students cannot develop an autonomous reaction to the world by constantly worrying about what others think. They must worry about what they think themselves, and make sure they think something…” The role of “mentors” and peers/other students...

A researcher‘s hope: finding „puzzles“ … searching for a puzzle… “What puzzles you?” “pieces of information, the belief that the pieces fit together into a meaningful picture – but the inability to fit the pieces together initially” Given existing literature / dominant explanation, what you observe seems not to correspond with what is predicted… Intuition…

Puzzle-driven approach Example of a puzzle Background:  The role of the Secretariat in assisting negotiations  The negotiation agent lost influence over time (variance)  Leading explanations are not satisfactory ☛ the puzzle of missing delegation

Puzzle-driven approach Functional Principal-Agent literature: Rational explanations for delegation (Hawkins et al. 2006, Martin 2006): We should observe that states favour delegation…  …when they lack international influence  …when states are dissatisfied with the status quo  …when preferences among states diverge  …when staff and states have similar preferences Alternative explanations (power argument, legalization argument) New explanation (delegation incentives within IOs)

Other ways to find a research question Beyond puzzles, you can contribute by: Theory-testing vs. theory-building: Assessing competing explanations as to observed outcomes Assessing competing explanations as to observed processes and causal mechanisms Investigate new topics where little literature is available Assess the conditions under which certain dominant explanations hold..

Preconditions! Knowing the facts and thinking with help of models Create your “own data-set” Factual knowledge Theoretical knowledge (and use of “models”) A model as a simplified representation of a process (e.g. collective action problem) Mancur Olson’s model of political mobilization Play with models and implications

Models… Negotiations (two-level game, veto player model, Schelling’s paradox, BATNA) Cooperation (coordination and collaboration games, hegemony) IOs (delegation: time-inconsistency problems; behavior: socialization, agency slack) Policy processes (historical institutionalism (path dependency, conjunctures); diffusion processes (imitation, learning, competition, coercion))

Research questions From grand theories to middle-range theories From romantic topics towards digestible questions Be aware of the rush-to-publish syndrome (absence of outcome) – when do you intend to finish the MIA? Think about data gathering and research methods early on One last thing: Settle on one research question (less is more!) “What explains…” “Under what conditions…”

Causation At the heart of social inquiry: causation – explanation… Cause: Events or conditions that raise the probability of some outcome occurring (under ceteris paribus conditions) (Gerring 2005) Mostly used logics: Deterministic causal arguments (necessary or sufficient) vs. probabilistic causal arguments (likelihood) Causal effects (correlational account) vs. causal mechanisms

Causation There are multiple forms of causation! Generally: Direct causation: A causes B Reverse causation: B causes A Reciprocal causation: A causes B and B causes A

Varieties of Causation Causal equifinality (several causes act independently of each to produce, each on its own, a particular effect) Conjunctural cause (a particular combination of causes acting together to produce a given outcome)

Skopcol’s Theory of Social Revolution (Goertz and Mahoney 2004)

Varieties of Causation Non-linear cause (cause with takeoff or threshold level) Constant cause (cause operating continuously over a period of time) Causal chain: many intermediate causes Critical juncture / path-dependent cause (cause at a particular time with enduring effects)