GSI applications within the Rapid Refresh and High Resolution Rapid Refresh 17 th IOAS-AOLS Conference 93 rd AMS Annual Meeting 9 January 2013 Patrick.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Adaptation of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) for hourly cycled application within the Rapid Refresh Ming Hu 1,2, Stan Benjamin 1, Steve.
Advertisements

Challenges and Directions for NOAA’s Weather Modeling for Renewable Energy Stan Benjamin Research Meteorologist Chief, Assimilation and Modeling Branch.
Improved high-impact weather HRRR/RAP forecast accuracy from assimilation of satellite-based cloud, lightning, convection, AMVs, fire, and radiance data.
Rapid Refresh and RTMA. RUC: AKA-Rapid Refresh A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of off-time or continuous observations.
The 2014 Warn-on-Forecast and High-Impact Weather Workshop
5/22/201563rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler.
Rapid Update Cycle Model William Sachman and Steven Earle ESC452 - Spring 2006.
Brian Ancell, Cliff Mass, Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington
Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Previous called the Aviation (AVN) and Medium Range Forecast (MRF) models. Global model and 64 levels Relatively primitive.
NOAA ESRL GSD Assimilation and Modeling Branch WoF / Hi-Impact Wx Workshop 1 April 2014 – Norman, OK From RAPv3/HRRR-2014 to the NARRE/HRRRE era Stan Benjamin.
Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,
NOAA ESRL Renewable Energy Program Melinda Marquis NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory International Visitor Leadership Program August 30, 2012.
Nesting. Eta Model Eta Coordinate And Step Mountains MSL ground  = 1 Ptop  = 0.
AMDAR (aircraft) and Radar Data Assimilation
Verification Summit AMB verification: rapid feedback to guide model development decisions Patrick Hofmann, Bill Moninger, Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander,
Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Data within the Rapid Refresh Rapid Refresh domain Haidao Lin Steve Weygandt Ming Hu Stan Benjamin Patrick Hofmann Curtis.
GSI EXPERIMENTS FOR RUA REFLECTIVITY/CLOUD AND CONVENTIONAL OBSERVATIONS Ming Hu, Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt, David Dowell, Terra Ladwig, and Curtis.
VERIFICATION OF NDFD GRIDDED FORECASTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES John Horel 1, David Myrick 1, Bradley Colman 2, Mark Jackson 3 1 NOAA Cooperative Institute.
Evaluation of satellite data assimilation impacts on mesoscale environment fields within the hourly cycled Rapid Refresh Haidao Lin Steve Weygandt Ming.
Development of an EnKF/Hybrid Data Assimilation System for Mesoscale Application with the Rapid Refresh Ming Hu 1,2, Yujie Pan 3, Kefeng Zhu 3, Xuguang.
Meso- and Storm-scale Probabilistic Forecasts from the RUC, Rapid Refresh, and High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt NOAA Earth.
The NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 1-h assimilation cycle WWRP Symposium -- Nowcasting & Very Short Range Forecasting – 8 Sept 2005 – Toulouse, France Stan.
AMB Verification and Quality Control monitoring Efforts involving RAOB, Profiler, Mesonets, Aircraft Bill Moninger, Xue Wei, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison.
An FSL-RUC/RR Proposal for AoR Stan Benjamin Dezso Devenyi Steve Weygandt John M. Brown NOAA / FSL Help from NOHRSC/NWS – Chanhassen, MN - Tom Carroll,
WSN05 6 Sep 2005 Toulouse, France Efficient Assimilation of Radar Data at High Resolution for Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Keith Brewster,
Storm-Scale Modeling with HRRR toward Warn-On-Forecast
1 Presentation by Earth System Research Lab / Global Systems Division - Bill Moninger 23 March 2009 Impact of the AMDAR observations to aviation weather.
P1.7 The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) An operational objective surface analysis for the continental United States at 5-km resolution developed by.
Development and Testing of a Regional GSI-Based EnKF-Hybrid System for the Rapid Refresh Configuration Yujie Pan 1, Kefeng Zhu 1, Ming Xue 1,2, Xuguang.
2006(-07)TAMDAR aircraft impact experiments for RUC humidity, temperature and wind forecasts Stan Benjamin, Bill Moninger, Tracy Lorraine Smith, Brian.
Evaluation of impact of satellite radiance data within the hybrid variational/EnKF Rapid Refresh data assimilation system Haidao Lin Steve Weygandt Ming.
Evaluation of radiance data assimilation impact on Rapid Refresh forecast skill for retrospective and real-time experiments Haidao Lin Steve Weygandt Stan.
DRAFT – Page 1 – January 14, 2016 Development of a Convective Scale Ensemble Kalman Filter at Environment Canada Luc Fillion 1, Kao-Shen Chung 1, Monique.
NOAA/OAR report on recent JCSDA/satellite assimilation efforts 21 May 2014 Stan Benjamin - NOAA/ESRL ESRL/GSD talks Lidia Cucurull, Mariusz Pagowski, Haidao.
Wind Gust Analysis in RTMA Yanqiu Zhu, Geoff DiMego, John Derber, Manuel Pondeca, Geoff Manikin, Russ Treadon, Dave Parrish, Jim Purser Environmental Modeling.
NOAA ESRL GSD Earth Modeling Branch Boulder, CO USA 6 th Conf on Weather/Climate/New Energy Economy January 2015 HRRR/RAP assimilation/model improvements.
NCAR April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Data Assimilation in AMPS Dale Barker S. Rizvi, and M. Duda MMM Division, NCAR
The use of WSR-88D radar data at NCEP Shun Liu 1 David Parrish 2, John Derber 2, Geoff DiMego 2, Wan-shu Wu 2 Matthew Pyle 2, Brad Ferrier 1 1 IMSG/ National.
NCEP Production Suite Review
Recent and Future Advancements in Convective-Scale Storm Prediction with the High- Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecast System NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Curtis.
Assimilation of AIRS SFOV Profiles in the Rapid Refresh Rapid Refresh domain Haidao Lin Ming Hu Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Assimilation and Modeling.
MDL Requirements for RUA Judy Ghirardelli, David Myrick, and Bruce Veenhuis Contributions from: David Ruth and Matt Peroutka 1.
A. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 04 August 2011 Title: Fusing Goes Observations and RUC/RR Model Output for Improved Cloud Remote.
Rapid Update Cycle-RUC. RUC A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of offtime or continuous observations (not a 00.
Lightning data assimilation in the Rapid Refresh and evaluation of lightning diagnostics from HRRR runs Steve Weygandt, Ming Hu, Curtis Alexander, Stan.
Satellite Data Assimilation Activities at CIMSS for FY2003 Robert M. Aune Advanced Satellite Products Team NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/ARAD Cooperative Institute for.
Land-Surface evolution forced by predicted precipitation corrected by high-frequency radar/satellite assimilation – the RUC Coupled Data Assimilation System.
Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,
2004 Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt NOAA / Forecast Systems Lab NY Courtesy:
Global vs mesoscale ATOVS assimilation at the Met Office Global Large obs error (4 K) NESDIS 1B radiances NOAA-15 & 16 HIRS and AMSU thinned to 154 km.
WARN ON FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 09 February 2012 Use of Rapid Updating Meso‐ and Storm‐scale Data Assimilation to Improve Forecasts of.
HRRR Primary FAA-CoSPA NCEPESRL/GSD/AMB RAP Dev1 RAPv2 Primary HRRR Dev1 RAPv1 NCO RAP Dev2 RAP Retro HRRR Retro Retrospective Real-Time HRRR (and RAP)
RUC Convective Probability Forecasts using Ensembles and Hourly Assimilation Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Forecast Systems Laboratory NOAA.
GLFE Real-time TAMDAR Impact Experiments with the 20km RUC Stan Benjamin,Tracy Lorraine Smith, Bill Moninger, Brian Jamison NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory.
452 NWP Major Steps in the Forecast Process Data Collection Quality Control Data Assimilation Model Integration Post Processing of Model Forecasts.
Assimilation of AIRS SFOV retrievals in the Rapid Refresh model system Rapid Refresh domain Steve Weygandt Haidao Lin Ming Hu Stan Benjamin P Hofmann Jun.
452 NWP 2015.
452 NWP 2017.
Progress in development of HARMONIE 3D-Var and 4D-Var Contributions from Magnus Lindskog, Roger Randriamampianina, Ulf Andrae, Ole Vignes, Carlos Geijo,
452 NWP 2016.
Rapid Update Cycle-RUC
Tadashi Fujita (NPD JMA)
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): WRF Enhancements and Challenges
Aircraft weather observations: Impacts for regional NWP models
Winter storm forecast at 1-12 h range
Aircraft-based Observations:
Rapid Update Cycle-RUC Rapid Refresh-RR High Resolution Rapid Refresh-HRRR RTMA.
WMO NWP Wokshop: Blending Breakout
New Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC
452 NWP 2019.
Presentation transcript:

GSI applications within the Rapid Refresh and High Resolution Rapid Refresh 17 th IOAS-AOLS Conference 93 rd AMS Annual Meeting 9 January 2013 Patrick Hofmann 1, M. Hu 1, S. G. Benjamin 2, S. S. Weygandt 2, C. R. Alexander 1 1 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado 2 NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Division – Assimilation and Modeling Branch

Rapid Refresh and HRRR NOAA hourly updated models — Advanced community codes (ARW and GSI) — Retain key features from RUC analysis / model system ( hourly cycle -- radar DFI assimilation -- cloud analysis ) — RAP short-range guidance for aviation, severe weather, energy applications RUC  Rapid Refresh (01 May 2012) Rapid Refresh v2 Many improvements, target NCEP implement early 2014? HRRR NCEP GSD Runs as nest within RAP v2

Rapid Refresh Hourly Update Cycle 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst Time (UTC) Analysis Fields 3DVAR Obs 3DVAR Obs Back- ground Fields Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/day Fully cycle all land-sfc fields Hourly observations (stations for raobs/profiles) RAP 2012 N.Amer Rawinsonde (T,V,RH)120 Profiler – NOAA Network (V)21 Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv)25 Radar – VAD (V)125 Radar reflectivity - CONUS2km Lightning (proxy reflectivity)NLDN Aircraft (V,T)2-15K Aircraft - WVSS (RH)0-800 Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) Buoys/ships (V, ps) Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps)flagged GOES AMVs (V) AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiancesUsed GOES cloud-top pressure/temp13km WindSat scatterometer2-10K

Rapid Refresh – specific analysis features Special treatments for surface observations Cloud and hydrometeor analysis Digital filter-based reflectivity assimilation

Cloud analysis-related changes –Improved full column cloud building using emissivity from satellite data –Conservation of virtual potential temperature during cloud building Improved use of existing observations –Assimilation of surface moisture pseudo-obs in PBL –Soil adjustment based on surface temperature and moisture increments –Elevation correction, innovation limitation for PW observations –Closer fit to rawinsondes Other improvements –GFS ensemble background error covariance specification –Merge with recent GSI trunk –Addition of tower, nacelle, and sodar observations –Addition of GLD 360 lightning data (proxy for radar reflectivity) –Radiance bias correction Rapid Refresh version 2 data assimilation upgrades

Cloud analysis-related changes –Improved full column cloud building using emissivity from satellite data –Conservation of virtual potential temperature during cloud building Improved use of existing observations –Assimilation of surface moisture pseudo-obs in PBL –Soil adjustment based on surface temperature and moisture increments –Elevation correction, innovation limitation for PW observations –Closer fit to rawinsondes Other improvements –GFS ensemble background error covariance specification –Merge with recent GSI trunk –Addition of tower, nacelle, and sodar observations –Addition of GLD 360 lightning data (proxy for radar reflectivity) –Radiance bias correction Rapid Refresh version 2 data assimilation upgrades

Cloud Building Experiments Retro Period: 29 May – 12 June 2011 CONTROL: RAPV2, with cloud building below 1200m FULL BUILDING: Full column building using a cloud top pressure-based cloud fraction ECA BUILDING: Full column building using effective cloud amount (ECA), which uses cloud emissivity as a proxy for true cloud fraction ECA BUILDINGv2: ECA BUILDING, but no clearing from partially cloudy regions NESDIS CLAVR-x data provided courtesy of Andrew Heidinger (UW/CIMSS/NOAA-AWG) CLAVR-x is NOAA's operational cloud processing system for the AVHRR on the NOAA - POES and EUMETSAT-METOP series of polar orbiting satellites

Cloud Building Experiments 29 May - 11 June 2011 Relative Humidity Bias CTRL FULL ECA ECAv2 3HR

Cloud Building Experiments 29 May - 11 June 2011 Relative Humidity Bias 6HR CTRL FULL ECA ECAv2

Cloud Building Experiments 29 May - 11 June ft Ceiling TSS 1HR CTRL FULL ECA ECAv2

Cloud Building Experiments 29 May - 11 June ft Ceiling TSS 3HR CTRL FULL ECA ECAv2

Full Column Cloud BuildingLow (<1200m) Cloud Building Cloud Top Comparison 12Z 7 June 2011

Full Column Cloud Building 3000ft Ceiling Stats CSI= 0.56 BIAS= 1.3 Low Cloud Building 3000ft Ceiling Stats CSI= 0.55 BIAS= 1.3 Ceiling Comparison 12Z 7 June 2011

3-km Interp Hourly HRRR Initialization from RAP GSI 3D-VAR Cloud Anx Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 3-km Interp GSI 3D-VAR Cloud Anx Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 3-km Interp GSI 3D-VAR Cloud Anx Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 13 km RAP 3 km HRRR 13z 14z 15z

Backgroun d Radar Specification of Hydrometeors Scale at which Latent Heating is applied DimensionalityUpdated 2013 RAP model initialization BCs from GFS No13-km3-DHourly 2013 HRRR model initialization 13-km RAPNo 3km in 60min spin-up (also using 13km radar-LH-DFI) 3-DHourly Rapidly Updating Analysis (RUA- HRRR) 3-km HRRR 1 hr fcst YesNone3-DHourly Real-Time Meso Analysis (RTMA-HRRR) 3-km HRRR 1 hr fcst NoNone2-D Hourly (15 min planned) GSI Applications

RTMA-HRRR –Real Time Meso-scale Analysis –1hr HRRR forecast used as background field –Anisotropic error covariance fields –Currently run hourly; plan to produce 15min output RUA-HRRR –Rapidly Updated Analysis –Full cloud analysis based on HRRR background field –Includes cloud, radar, and surface analyses –Specifies hydrometeors from radar observations –Improves initial reflectivity field GSI Applications

RTMA-HRRR –Real Time Meso-scale Analysis –1hr HRRR forecast used as background field –Anisotropic error covariance fields –Currently run hourly; plan to produce 15min output RUA-HRRR –Rapidly Updated Analysis –Full 3D GSI analysis based on HRRR background field –Includes cloud, radar, and surface analyses –Specifies hydrometeors from radar observations –Improves initial reflectivity field GSI Applications

HRRR Anx RTMA 1-hr HRRR Fcst (Background) Valid 19 UTC 30 Nov 2012 RTMA-HRRR Valid 19 UTC 30 Nov m Winds Analysis Increments 3km RTMA-HRRR

30 Nov – 4 Dec m Temperature RMS 1 Day Avgs RTMA HRRR 0HR HRRR 1HR

3km RTMA-HRRR 30 Nov – 4 Dec m Dewpoint RMS 1 Day Avgs RTMA HRRR 0HR HRRR 1HR

3km RTMA-HRRR 30 Nov – 4 Dec m Winds RMS 1 Day Avgs RTMA HRRR 0HR HRRR 1HR

RTMA-HRRR –Real Time Meso-scale Analysis –1hr HRRR forecast used as background field –Anisotropic error covariance fields –Currently run hourly; plan to produce 15min output RUA-HRRR –Rapidly Updated Analysis –Full 3D GSI analysis based on HRRR background field –Includes cloud, radar, and surface analyses –Specifies hydrometeors from radar observations –Improves initial reflectivity field GSI Applications

3km RUA-HRRR 1-hr HRRR Forecast (Background) Valid 22 UTC 03 November hr HRRR Analysis (RUA) Valid 22 UTC 03 November 2012 Obs 22 UTC 03 Nov 2012 GSI Cloud Anx Rapidly Updating Analysis (RUA) Specifies Hydrometeors From Radar Observations

Conclusion Completed RAP v2 Changes -GFS ensemble background error covariance specification -Improved cloud building -Assimilation of surface moisture pseudo-obs in PBL -Soil adjustment based on near-surface temperature / moisture increments -Elevation correction, innovation limitation for PW observations -Conservation of virtual potential temperature during cloud building -Radiance bias correction -Merge with latest version of GSI from NCEP community trunk -Additional observations (radial wind, wind tower/nacelle, lightning) GSI 3km applications -RTMA-HRRR provides improved first-guess fields for NDFD -RUA-HRRR results in more realistic initial model state, greatly improving reflectivity and 3-D hydrometeor fields