& 2016 Forecast

 Hidden Falls: Extremely Poor returns for all species  Medvejie: Very Strong chum; Good Chinook; Average coho  Deer Lake: Average coho  Southeast Cove: First Adults; 3-year-old return promising

SiteTrollGillnetSeineSportCRRackTotal Deep Inlet 231,116694,0331,398, ,5052,434,701 Hidden Falls 49,417242,938292,355 Southeast Cove 13,428 Haines 13,52020,28033,800 Total 231,116707,5531,447,43513,467354,4432,774,284 8%26%52%0%14%

Deep Inlet: 182%Hidden Falls: 28%

NSRAA’s chum programs have struggled during the past 7 brood years, especially at Hidden Falls. We are hoping that improved 3-yr-old returns in 2015 and early signs of success in our 4.0 production point to a turn-around. NSRAA’s chum programs have struggled during the past 7 brood years, especially at Hidden Falls. We are hoping that improved 3-yr-old returns in 2015 and early signs of success in our 4.0 production point to a turn-around.

Note: ranges are Brood years

SiteTrollGillnetSeineSportCRRackTotal Medvejie/ Deep Inlet 9,6323,2523,4551,5742,7256,42027,058 Hidden Falls ,784 Total 10,3783,3704,2541,9412,7257,17429,842 35%11%14%7%9%24%

NSRAA contributed 10,321 Chinook to the SE Alaska Troll Fishery which is 3.8% of the total Chinook catch. Estimated Value = $681,000 NSRAA contributed 10,321 Chinook to the SE Alaska Troll Fishery which is 3.8% of the total Chinook catch. Estimated Value = $681,000

Deep Inlet harvest was 6,919 Chinook in Estimated Value = $433,000 Deep Inlet harvest was 6,919 Chinook in Estimated Value = $433,000

Hidden Falls seine harvest was 678 Chinook in Estimated Value = $53,000 Hidden Falls seine harvest was 678 Chinook in Estimated Value = $53,000

SiteTrollGillnetSeineSportCRRackTotal Deer Lake Cliff Lake 69, ,2932,63656,85312,373143,216 Hidden Falls 15, ,59514,33645,455 Medvejie / Deep Inlet 9, , ,07514,354 Total 94, ,2174,50870,44827,784203,521 47%0.4%3%2%35%14%

2015 Value – includes cooperative chum projects $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment

2015 Value – includes cooperative chum projects $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment

History by gear – includes cooperative chum projects $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment

CR = Regular cost recovery (fish sales only). Assess = Hidden Falls assessment. $102,000 in 2012 / $1,793,000 in 2013 / $364,500 in 2014 / $0.00 in NSE FUND (DIPAC FUNDING) reduced CR significantly for the third year in a row: $1.5 M in 2013 / $2.5 M in 2014 / $2.0 M in 2015

Regular cost recovery (fish sales only) : $714,524 Initial cost recovery harvest at Southeast Cove...Mixed NSRAA and Gunnuk Creek Hatchery Production… We split revenue with State of Alaska Division of Economic Development (DED) based on otolith sampling… NSRAA portion = 21% of total.

Deep Inlet chum – 1,782,000 projection is about 75% of the 2015 return Hidden Falls chum – 1,433,000 projection is about 490% of the 2015 return. Let’s hope the 4.0 data and 3-year-old numbers equate to a large 4- yr-old return in Southeast Cove chum – 165,700 projection. All fry were 4.0’s; strong 3- yr-old return. Haines chum – 31,000 (est. 33,800 in 2015)

Medvejie Chinook – 31,200 projection is about 4,000 fish above 2015 return Hidden Falls Chinook – 5,400 projection is about 2,800 fish above 2015 return

Deer Lake Coho – 150,000 - projection is about 103% of 2015 return Hidden Falls Coho – 194,000 - projection is about 425% of 2015 return Medvejie/Deep Inlet Coho – 62,000 - projection is about 280% of 2015 return Banner Lake (BY 13) fry stocking - 2,000 Cliff Lake (BY12) fry stocking - 2,000 (500 in 2015)

3,3,3H

This otolith mark was on 49% of the chum in the 2015 Deep Inlet/ Bear Cove return. It is the mark put on the DIMV11 group: DI – Medvejie stock – BY This otolith mark was on 49% of the chum in the 2015 Deep Inlet/ Bear Cove return. It is the mark put on the DIMV11 group: DI – Medvejie stock – BY 2011.

Each rearing group is given a unique mark. We found marks from 18 NSRAA release groups in 2015 sampling. Mark ID > 2015 Age Class>

Each rearing group is given a unique mark. We found marks from 18 NSRAA release groups in 2015 sampling. Mark ID > 2015 Age Class> HF stock rel. at DIMed stock rel. at Bear Cove Med stock rel. at DI

?? Questions, Questions ?? 1.What is the contribution of the Hidden Falls stock? 2. What is the contribution of the Medvejie stock at Deep Inlet? Bear Cove? 3. How do survival rates compare for the 4.0 groups vs. the regular groups so far? Is the 4.0 program working? 4. Do any Deep Inlet fish return to the Medvejie Rack? 5. How many Bear Cove released fish are intercepted in the Deep Inlet and Troll fisheries? ?? Questions, Questions ?? 1.What is the contribution of the Hidden Falls stock? 2. What is the contribution of the Medvejie stock at Deep Inlet? Bear Cove? 3. How do survival rates compare for the 4.0 groups vs. the regular groups so far? Is the 4.0 program working? 4. Do any Deep Inlet fish return to the Medvejie Rack? 5. How many Bear Cove released fish are intercepted in the Deep Inlet and Troll fisheries?

?? Questions, Questions ?? 6. What is the age composition of the return? 7. How does the age comp compare with scale aging? 8. Do Bear Cove releases survive at the same rate as Deep Inlet releases for the Medvejie stock? 9. How many non-NSRAA fish are in the fishery? ?? Questions, Questions ?? 6. What is the age composition of the return? 7. How does the age comp compare with scale aging? 8. Do Bear Cove releases survive at the same rate as Deep Inlet releases for the Medvejie stock? 9. How many non-NSRAA fish are in the fishery?

?? QUESTIONS ?? Prior to otolith marking, we could only make educated guesses at best for many of these questions. In most cases we could only speculate. Otolith sampling gives us a much better grasp on what is happening with different stocks, release sites, and rearing strategies as well as insight into the makeup of the fisheries. ?? QUESTIONS ?? Prior to otolith marking, we could only make educated guesses at best for many of these questions. In most cases we could only speculate. Otolith sampling gives us a much better grasp on what is happening with different stocks, release sites, and rearing strategies as well as insight into the makeup of the fisheries.

2015 Hidden Falls stock contribution at Deep Inlet.

2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Bear Cove and Deep Inlet release groups. Note “LL” designates Late-Large or what we call the 4.0 program.

2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Deep Inlet release groups. 1.2 million BY11 fours - Medvejie “Regular” rearing! 146,000 BY12 LL 3-year-old return from 8 million release 58,000 BY12 Reg. 3-year-old return from 22 million release DIMV11 - This single group = 51% of DI return; value estimate of $4.2M, or 41% of total 2015 $10.25M commercial value for all species. DIMV11 –Regular rearing 24.2 million fry 1.55g release size Rel. dates (6) from 4/30- 5/9/2012 DIMV11 –Regular rearing 24.2 million fry 1.55g release size Rel. dates (6) from 4/30- 5/9/2012

2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Bear Cove release groups. 120,000 BY11 fours - Medvejie “Regular” rearing. 78,000 BY11 LL 4-year-old return from 4.6 million release 119,000 BY11 Reg. 4-year-old return from 14.4 million release 77,000 BY12 LL 3-year-old return from 4.6 million release 9,600 BY12 Reg. 3-year-old return from 13.5 million release

2015 Compare 4.0 and Regular release groups Age 3 (BY12) Bear Cove: 9:1 Age 3 (BY12) Deep Inlet: 8:1 Age 4 (BY 11) Deep Inlet 2: Compare 4.0 and Regular release groups Age 3 (BY12) Bear Cove: 9:1 Age 3 (BY12) Deep Inlet: 8:1 Age 4 (BY 11) Deep Inlet 2:1

Rough estimate of final marine survival of BY11 Bear Cove chum based on 4-year-old return.

Other insights: 73 % of Bear Cove fish were caught in the fishery 2% of Deep Inlet fish were caught at the rack

2015 Hidden Falls Despite the poor return, we did gain some insight into rearing strategies.

2015 Hidden Falls 4.0 outperformed regular rearing at both sites for both BYs with 4.0 releases.

2015 Hidden Falls 4.0 outperformed regular rearing at both sites for both BYs with 4.0 releases….by a much wider margin at Takatz.

2015 Hidden Falls Rough estimate of final marine survival for BY11 groups.

Other insights: Takatz fish will find their way back to the hatchery: 57% of the rack fish were Takatz fish.

2015 Hidden Falls Comparison between release sites.

SE COVE First 3-yr olds returned in 2015 Outperformed KAKE BY 12 by a wide margin.

2015 CREW Duncan Coltharp Zachery Papovich Ben Adams