US Army Engineer Research and Development Center U.S. IOOS MODEL VALIDATION CAPABILITY SURA SUPER-REGIONAL TEST BED Working across agencies to bring observations.

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Presentation transcript:

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center U.S. IOOS MODEL VALIDATION CAPABILITY SURA SUPER-REGIONAL TEST BED Working across agencies to bring observations and models together in a natural coastal laboratory… USACE Field Research Facility Jeff Hanson US Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility, Duck, NC

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center SURA SUPER-REGIONAL TEST BED Don Wright (SURA), Yesterday… Test Bed Goals 1. Develop skill metrics and evaluate model performance… Year 1 Products 1. Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors for test bed modeling regimes…

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Analysis Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics Interactive Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System Inundation Modeling Test Bed Skill Assessment Concept Inundation Modeling Systems WavesCirculation Atmosphere Storm Surge Research SURA Server Regional Observations

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Graphical User Interface

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center AutoMEDS Demonstration on FRF SWAN Application

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Features Stand-alone desktop model validation toolkit Based on published NOAA standards (Hess et. al., 2003; Zhang et.al., 2006). Robust error metrics: Erms, bias, Scatter Index, Skill Score Explore model errors as a function of time, space, event, etc. Performance Scores Performance scores range from 0 to 1 (1 is a perfect match) Synthesize error metrics across space and time Normalized to mean observed quantities A measure of error % relative to mean observed quantities

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center IMEDS Error Analyses Statistical Analyses Temporal correlation Quantile-Quantile (distributions) Peak event (peak over threshold) Parameters Added To-Date Winds Waves (Windsea and swell) Storm Surge Speed, Direction Height, Period, Direction Water level, High water marks Error Metrics RMS Error Bias, Angular bias Scatter Index Circular correlation Performance (Skill) Scores Coming Soon Target Plots

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center IMEDS Error Metrics Bias RMS Error Scatter Index Reference: Hanson, Tracy, Tolman and Scott, J. Oce. Atms. Tech., 26, For n pairs of measurement (m) and hindcast (h) data…

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center IMEDS Error Metrics Angular Bias Circular Correlation Reference: Hanson, Tracy, Tolman and Scott, J. Oce. Atms. Tech., 26, And for directional data…

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center IMEDS Skill Scores Bias Skill RMS Error Skill Scatter Index Skill Station Skill Total Skill Combine station scores using sample size weights Scores range from 0 to 1 1 = perfect agreement 0 = totally uncorrelated Scores are computed relative to mean observed quantities Average the 3 scores

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Peak Over Threshold Extraction Peak Event Analysis Peak Event Statistics

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center FEMA Region III Storm Surge Project Hurricane Isabel Max Water Levels

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center FEMA Region III Storm Surge Study: Hurricane Isabel September 2003

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center FEMA Region III Storm Surge Study: Nor’Ida November 2009

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Supported Data Formats Observed Data NDBC buoys NODC wind/wave stations NOS – includes detide option IMEDS Generic Format Model Output WW3 (*spc) SWAN (spec2d.out & TAB(opt)) ADCIRC Water-Level (fort.61) ADCIRC Wind (fort.72) Extract from SURA OpenDAP Server (netCDF file) IMEDS Generic Format

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center IMEDS Generic Format Sample File % IMEDS generic format version 1.0 – water-elevation % year month day hour min watlev (m) NOS UTC NAVD Station Data

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center IMEDS Set Up GUI Sample File

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Accomplishments to Date IMEDS posted on SURA Server with illustrated users guide Develop data interface to SURA OpenDAP server Implement generic text file interface User-defined graphics export formats (jpeg, png, fig, etc…) Prototype Target Plot

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Want to use IMEDS? Download IMEDS from SURA Server Review fully illustrated users guide Ensure observation data are in native format (NOS, NODC, etc) or IMEDS Text format Export model results in IMEDS generic text format Seek help as needed from CI group and/or USACE Put IMEDS to work for you!