Security of the Ultimate High Ground Preventing Arms Race in Outer Space Manpreet Sethi, Ph.D Senior Fellow Centre for Strategic and International Studies New Delhi WAAS, 19 Oct 2008, Hyderabad

Present Reality Outer space more integral to Earth than ever before Increasing number of space assets ‘Critical’ Civilian applications ‘Vital’ Military uses, incl nuclear deterrence Increasing number of space faring nations Increasing inter-state commercial relations for use of outer space

Challenges to Space Security National Ambitions Doctrines of dominance & denial BMD, ASAT & Weaponisation of space Galloping technological developments on types of space weapons Use of space for asymmetric warfare – space disruption easier than space control Mistrust and lack of transparency and confidence

Challenges to Space Security Lack of International Consensus Divergent state priorities Stalemate at CD FMCT Vs PAROS Lukewarm response to PPWT Lack of focus at COPOUS

Challenges to Space Security Legal Lacunae Outpaced by technological developments Limitations of OST, 1967 Different interpretations of ‘peaceful use’, ‘outer space’ US opposition to new legal regimes

Challenges to Space Security Environmental Concerns Generation of uncontrolled space debris Routine space activity Intentional destruction of satellites Overcrowding in some key orbits Long term impact of induction of satellites Possibility of satellite malfunction and associated dangers to earth and atmosphere

Comparison with Nuclear Situation Intentions of disarmament taken over by technological push Status and Prestige of NW Lack of transparency, confidence and trust in inter-state relations Inevitability of arms race Offence-Defence spiral Inevitability of proliferation “Impossible to achieve effectively verifiable and meaningful disarmament”

Preventing Arms Race in Outer Space Need for collective action Equal vulnerability of all space faring nations Need for multilateral mechanisms to Place limits on militarisation Ban weaponisation Better inter-state relations for political action Acceptance of common code of conduct Very difficult to stop proliferation later Act now to ensure secure & sustainable access to & use of outer space

History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme a lot – Mark Twain As nations dilly dally Technology continues to rally New capabilities, new weapons Security of mankind they threaten ‘Freedom of action’ is the basic desire It translates into dominance and denial Space power is the name of the game Proliferation – we’ll get more of the same!!