Japan, ICRC 2003 Daejeon, UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop, Sept 2009 Satellite Anomalies and Space Weather By Lev Dorman for INTAS team (A. Belov, L. Dorman,, E. Eroshenko, L. Gromova, N. Iucci, D. Ivanus,. O. Kryakunova, A. Levitin, M. Parisi, N. Ptitsyna, M. Tyasto, E. Vernova, G. Villoresi, V. Yanke)

Japan, ICRC 2003 Abstract Results of the INTAS Project, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecrafts. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluencies of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.

Japan, ICRC 2003 Satellite anomaly data The main contribution was from NGDC satellite anomaly database, created by J. Allen and D. Wilkinson. + “Kosmos” data (circular orbit at 800 km altitude and 74º inclination) year anomalies - Walter Thomas report (Thomas, 1995). + The satellites characteristics - from different Internet sources:

Japan, ICRC 2003 Satellite and Anomaly Number ~300 satellites ~6000 satellite anomalies

Japan, ICRC 2003 Red, Green and Blue Groups

Japan, ICRC 2003 Period with big number of satellite anomalies Upper panel – cosmic ray activity near the Earth: variations of 10 GV cosmic ray density; solar proton (> 10 MeV and >60 MeV) fluxes. Lower panel – geomagnetic activity: Kp- and Dst-indices. Vertical arrows on the upper panel correspond to the malfunction moments.

Japan, ICRC 2003 Other example Upper panel – cosmic ray activity near the Earth: variations of 10 GV cosmic ray density; electron (> 2 MeV) fluxes – hourly data. Vertical arrows correspond to the malfunction moments. Lower row – all malfunctions. Lower panel – geomagnetic activity: Kp- and Dst-indices.

Japan, ICRC 2003 Seasonal dependence Anomaly’s frequency (all orbits) with statistical errors 27-day averaged frequencies and corresponding half year wave

Japan, ICRC 2003 Seasonal dependence Satellite anomalies frequency and Ap-index averaged over the period The curve with points is the 27-day running mean values; the grey band corresponds to the 95 % confidence interval. The sinusoidal curve is a semiannual wave with maxima in equinoxes best fitting the frequency data.

Japan, ICRC 2003 Seasonal dependence (different orbits) 27-day averaged frequencies and corresponding half year wave for different satellite groups

Japan, ICRC 2003 Time distribution of anomalies

Japan, ICRC 2003 Space Weather Indices Solar activity Solar wind Geomagnetic activity Solar protons Electrons Ground Level Cosmic Rays ~30 indices in total

Japan, ICRC 2003 Solar activity 27-day running averaged Sunspot Numbers and Solar Radio Flux We use SSN and F 10.7 – daily Sunspot Numbers and radio fluxes; SSN 27, SSN 365 – 1 year and 1 rotation running averaged SSN

Japan, ICRC 2003 Geomagnetic activity Daily Ap-index and minimal (for this day) Dst-index We use Apd, Apmax – daily and maximal Ap-index; AEd, AEmax – daily and maximal AE-index; DSTd, DSTmin – daily and minimal Dst-index;

Japan, ICRC 2003 Protons and electrons Daily proton and electron fluencies We use p10, p100 – daily proton (>10, >100 MeV) fluencies (GOES); p10d, p60d – daily proton (>10, >60 MeV) fluxes (IMP); p10max, p60max – maximal hourly proton (>10, >60 MeV) fluxes (IMP); e2 – daily electron (>2 MeV) fluence (GOES); e2d, e2max – daily and maximal electron (>2 MeV) fluх (GOES);

Japan, ICRC 2003 Solar Wind Daily solar wind speed and intensity of interplanetary magnetic field We use Vsw, Vmax – daily and maximal solar wind speed; Bm – daily IMF intensity; Bzd, Bzmin – daily and minimal z-component IMF (GSM); Bznsum – sum of negative z-component values;

Japan, ICRC 2003 Cosmic Ray Activity Indices + Daily CRA-indices and sum of negative IMF z-component We use da10, CRA – indices of cosmic ray activity, obtained from ground level CR observations (Belov et al., 1999); Eakd, Eakmax – estimation of daily and maximal energy, transferred from solar wind to magnetosphere (Akasofu, 1987);

Japan, ICRC 2003 SSC and anomalies Averaged behavior of satellite anomalies frequency near Sudden Storm Commencements 634 days with SSC in total a – all storms b – storms with Ap>50 nT c – storms with Ap>80 nT

Japan, ICRC 2003 SSC and anomalies Averaged behavior Ap, Dst – indices of geomagnetic activity and satellite malfunction frequency near Sudden Storm Commencements Malfunctions start later and last longer than magnetic storms

Japan, ICRC 2003 Proton events and anomalies Averaged behavior of p>10, p>100 MeV and satellite malfunction frequency during proton event periods. The enhancement with >300 pfu were used

Japan, ICRC 2003 Proton events and anomalies Mean satellite anomaly frequencies in 0- and 1-days of proton enhancements in dependence on the maximal > 10 MeV flux

Japan, ICRC 2003 Proton events and anomalies Probability of any anomaly ( high altitude – high inclination group) in dependence on the maximal proton > 10 and >60 MeV flux

Japan, ICRC 2003 Proton and electron hazards on the different orbits Mean proton and electron fluencies on the anomaly day

Japan, ICRC 2003 Anomalies and different indices (precursors) Mean behavior of Ap-index in anomaly periods (GEO satellites)

Japan, ICRC 2003 Anomalies and different indices (precursors) Mean behavior of >2 MeV electron fluence in anomaly periods (GEO satellites)

Japan, ICRC 2003 Anomalies and different indices (precursors) Mean behavior of solar wind speed in anomaly periods (GEO satellites)

Japan, ICRC 2003 Models of the anomaly frequency Example of frequency model (GEO): We checked ~ 30 different Space Weather parameters and a lot of their combinations We used the parameters for anomaly day and for several preceding days Only simplest linear regression models were checked (exclusions for e and p indices) Obtained models contain 3-8 different geo- heliophysical parameters The models appear to be different for different satellite groups

Japan, ICRC 2003 Models of the anomaly frequency high alt.- low incl. cc=0.39 e>2 MeV Apd, AEd, sf p60d, p100 Vsw Bzd, da10 low alt.-high incl. cc=0.2 e>2 MeV CRA Apd, AEd, sf Vsw, Bzd high alt.-high incl. cc=0.7 p>100 MeV, p60d Eak, Bznsum, SSN365

Japan, ICRC 2003 SEP FORECAST STEPS (FROM POSTER PS-18) 1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE SEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA 2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS 3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION BY SOLVING AN INVERSE PROBLEM 4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED SEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS; CORRECTION OF THE INVERSE PROBLEM SOLUTION 5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NEUTRON MONITOR AND SATELLITE DATA

Japan, ICRC 2003 Principles of Magnetic Storms Forecasting

Japan, ICRC 2003 Summary The relation between Space Weather parameters and frequency of satellite anomalies are different for different satellite groups (orbits) The models simulated anomaly frequency in different orbits are developed and could be adjusted for forecasting (mainly energetic particles and magnetic activity) The models for forecasting of energetic particle events and magnetic activity can be developed in near future on the basis of ground and satellite observations