Planning for the 2020 US Census Presentation to the Joint UNECE-Eurostat Meeting on Population and Housing Censuses (Geneva, 7-9 July 2010) Daniel H. Weinberg Assistant Director for ACS and Decennial Census U.S. Census Bureau

The Context The rising costs of the 2010 Census were largely driven by three factors: (1) declining self-response rates requiring the hiring of a large field staff, (2) paper-based and labor- intensive methods requiring a large field infrastructure, and (3) substantial investments in major, national updating of the address frame just prior to the enumeration (2009). 2

Planning Principles for Identifying Research Projects(1) Reduces Cost—potential that the project could result in overall reduction in census cost per housing unit versus historical trends; Improves Quality—potential that the project could result in overall improved census quality; Reduces Field Timeline—potential that the project could result in reducing the amount of time that field data collection occurs (thus reducing recall bias); Tailored Response Modes—potential that the project supports customization of response modes by geography and demographics (thus improving response and potentially reducing differential undercoverage); Leverages ACS—potential that project could integrate software and hardware improvements into the American Community Survey and that testing could occur using the ACS infrastructure (such as the Internet self-response test planned for 2011); 3

Planning Principles (2) Supports Continual Frame Updating—potential that the project supports the updating and improvement of the address frame and spatial database over the decade; Supports Agile Decision-making—the potential for the project to be supported by small tests thereby allowing quick and informed decision- making, in support of a more flexible and resilient overall design; Reuses Data—potential for the project to use administrative records or existing Census Bureau data, including ACS data; Leverages Systems and Methods—potential for the project to leverage existing systems and/or methods to jump-start development of systems or processes; Leverages Partnerships—potential for the project to use external partners to support the census design; and Supports Organizational Solutions—potential for the project to lead to more agency-wide solutions across program areas, rather than development of throw-away solutions and/or duplication of systems and methods. 4

Goals The strategic outcome is to develop a design which strikes a balance between delivering the highest quality census while reducing costs and managing risks. The 2020 Census has four strategic goals: (1) An Accurate and Complete Census, (2) Embraced and Valued Results, (3) An Efficient Census, and (4) A Well-Managed Census. 5

The Process Solicited bold and innovative ideas both from Census Bureau staff and key stakeholders, including several members of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Panel to Review the 2010 Census, and Statistics Canada; Consolidated the more than 600 ideas into approximately 75 possible research projects, assessed the methodologies needed to carry out those projects; Assessed the potential research projects against the planning principles; Prepared a budget initiative for work to begin in October 2011 (currently under review); Continue development of the research agenda as further external consultations take place, including from a workshop being planned by the NAS Panel. 6

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