Project Outline: Technical Support to EPA and RPOs on the Implementation of the Regional Haze Regulations Estimation of Natural Haze as Part of Total Haze over the US R. Husar, CAPITA Washington University, St. Louis Project Period: June May 2008; Reports: 2005, 2008 Presentation prepared for CENRAP Meeting, San Antonio, Jan. 24, 2003 Oct 5, 1998 Smoke Plumes Regional haze from smoke? SeaWiFS Satellite Aerosol Pattern Natural/Manmade?

Summary of EPA Haze Rule on Natural Conditions The goal of the EPA visibility program is reaching the natural visibility conditions. Estimating the overall visibility conditions and the natural conditions establishes how ‘‘close’’ a Class I area is to the goal, i.e. the magnitude of the human-induced ‘exceedance’ over the natural. The default annual natural visibility is deciview for the East, 8 dv for the West. The regional natural visibility is to be derived from sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and crustal material estimates using IMPROVE methodology. EPA along with States, tribes, and FLMs to develop and refine the technical guidance on estimating natural conditions (e.g. natural fire and dust) States, in turn, will work with the FLMs, tribes and EPA in estimating their natural conditions using these guidelines at each Class I area.

The Haze Rules require States to establish and update Baseline, Natural and Current Visibility Conditions Baseline conditions represent visibility at the time the regional haze program is established, Natural conditions represent the visibility conditions that would be experienced in the absence of human-caused impairment. Current condition is the most recent multiyear average, to be revised for each SIP revision. It includes showing progress from the baseline period.

Regional Haze Rule: Nomenclature and Time Scale Schematics Time Scale and Milestones Goal is to attain natural conditions by 2064 Baseline is established during First SIP & Natural Cond. estimate in 2008 SIP & Natural Cond. Revisions every 10 yrs Haze Components Natural haze is due to natural windblown dust, biomass smoke and other natural processes Man-made haze is due industrial activities AND man-perturbed smoke and dust emissions A fraction of the man-perturbed smoke and dust is assigned to natural by policy decisions

Natural Aerosol Conditions – Default Values WEST EAST The Regional Haze Rule provides initial default values for the Natural Haze Conditions The default haze for the West is 8 deciviews while for the East is 11 deciviews Obtained by estimating the natural concentration of SO4, EC, OC, NO3, Fine, Coarse Soil Weighing each aerosol component by corresponding extinction efficiencies. (Trijonis, 1990) Mass Bext

Estimation Procedure for Default Natural Haze The current natural haze estimation method uses annual average species concentrations and average relative humidity to estimate annual mean natural haze The day-to-day variability in the annual mean is natural haze is based on statistical assumptions All aspects of the default natural haze estimation can be improved with recently obtained data and analysis techniques:

RH Guide on Fire Emissions Forest and other fires can be either natural or man-induced Many major forest fires can be inherently classified as natural Other fires are intentional (prescribed) to reduce organic fuel accumulation Prescribed burning will likely be increasing to reduce catastrophic wildfires EPA considers some portion of the prescribed fire emissions as ‘natural’. The Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) is conducting interesting policy discussions on defining natural and manmade smoke discussions on defining natural and manmade smoke

RH Guide on Natural Dust Regional Haze guide document is vague on natural dust The WRAP RPO has conducted an extensive evaluation of fugitive dust in the West. They concluded that manmade fugitive (mechanically stirred up) dust is not a significant contributor regional haze. By inference, most of the regional dust in the west is non-fugitive windblown dust.evaluation of fugitive dust in the West In an early discussion document, Pitchford suggests that a working definition of natural dust could be any dust from non-disturbed soil surfaces, while all the dust from disturbed surfaces would be classified as manmade.discussion document Clearly, there is a to begin both the scientific/technical as well as the policy discussion about natural/manmade dust.

Project Goal and Objective The goal of the project is to provide technical support to EPA & RPOs on: Estimation of Natural Haze as Part of Total Haze over the US Tasks and Approach: 1.Conceptual Evaluation of Natural PM and Visibility Conditions Establish Virtual Workgroup with representatives from EPA, RPOs, scientific community 2.Quantitative Estimation of Current Total and Natural Contribution Conduct Data Analysis for estimating natural contributions (1995+, surf. and satellite obs) 3.Real-Time Estimation of Natural Aerosols and Visibility Implement a Web-based Tool for routine real-time estimation of natural aerosols/visibility

Task 1: Conceptual Evaluation of Natural PM and Visibility Conditions Technical Issues Establish the main natural source types and their properties –Windblown dust (local and distant) –Biomass smoke (forest, grass and other uncontrolled fires, local and distant) –Biogenic emissions (trees, marshes, oceans) –Sea salt, pollen Evaluate suitable metrics for statistically describing natural conditions –Relevant aerosol components (e.g. SO4, NO3, OC, EC, Dust) –Spatio-temporal scales, resolution and pattern of natural events/conditions Project Management Approach Establish a steering group for project guidance (EPA, RPO, Science reps) Maintain a project website for open virtual workgroup interaction and data sharing Follow and interact with policy developments at RPOs and EPA Collaborate with VIEWS, RPO data analysts and RPO modelers

Task 1: Natural Haze Properties Dust, sea salt and pollen are ‘coarse’ particles. Dust is composed of irregularly shaped crystals Sea salt is made of rectangular crystals of NaCl Pollen are round shaped solid organic particles. Smoke and marine biogenic particle are ‘fine’ Smoke particles are droplets of organics from combustion residues Marine organic particles droplets are from microorganisms on the sea surface Sahara Dust

Task 2: Quantitative Estimation of Regional Natural Contribution Current Conditions (from VIEWS) Spatially resolved haze components for each station, focus on Class I areas Temporally resolve aerosol components for each day Apply IMPROVE methodology for total haze calculation, including RH Correction Identify worst/best visibility days Natural Haze (from this Project) Spatially resolve natural (dust, smoke, other) for each station, focus on Class I areas Temporally resolve natural haze components for each day Apply IMPROVE methodology for natural components, including RH Correction Estimate the natural contribution on best/worst visibility days Compare Natural Haze to Total Haze on best/worst days Implied in this approach is that: Current Conditions and the Natural Conditions are analyzed simultaneously This project is closely coordinated with other source apportionment work

Current Haze Conditions (IMPROVE) The current haze level along the West Coast is >15 dv, well over the default 8 dv Much of the mountainous West is in the 8-10 dv range, very near the default natural value Most of the Eastern US (except the Upper MW and New Engl.) is above 20 dv, compared to the default of 12 dv natural default. Expressed as extinction coefficient, the current EUS haze is about 90 Mm -1 compared to the default natural value of about 30 Mm -1 Hence, as a very rough initial estimate, the EUS extinction levels are currently about 3 times the default natural haze stated in the Regional Haze Regs.

Significant Natural Contributions to Haze by RPO Judged qualitatively based on current surface and satellite data Natural forest fires and windblown dust are judged to be the key contributors to regional haze The dominant natural sources include locally produced and long-range transported smoke and dust This project will quantify the absolute and relative contribution of natural sources for each RPO WRAP Local Smoke Canada Smoke Local Dust Asian Dust VISTAS Local Smoke Sahara Dust MRPO Local Smoke Canada Smoke Local Dust CENRAP Local Smoke Mexico/Canada Smoke Local Dust Sahara Dust MANE-VU Local Smoke Canada Smoke

Natural Aerosol/Haze Analysis Tools Analysis Tools Chemical composition analysis (speciation, traces) Physical property analysis (satellite, ASOS, PM2.5) Transport pattern (trajectory) Combined chemical/transport (trajectory + chemistry) Dynamic modeling (forward simulation, inversion) Near SourceFar from Source Source Oriented Receptor Oriented Each tool can be applied in the following modes of operation In the actual proposal, these tools will be explained and illustrated

Task 2: Spatial Analysis of ‘Natural’ Aerosols: Biomass Smoke Satellite data show numerous small fires in the Southeast The type of these fires is not known. Prescribed/agricultural burning? Wild fires? Issue: How does one space-time aggregate such a highly variable emission? PM2.5 conc., smoke pattern and SeaWiFS image of plumes originating from Kentucky, Nov 15, 1999.SeaWiFS More details here herehere Nov 15, 1999 Oct 5, 1998 Smoke Plumes Regional Smoke?

Task 2: Dust Analysis- Local, Sahara and Gobi Dust over N. America The dust over N. America originates from local sources as well as from the Sahara and Gobi Deserts Each dust source region has distinct chemical signature in the crustal elements. The pattern of different dust contributions varies in space as well as by season, episodicity and vertical distribution New satellite sensors allow monitoring the spatial and temporal pattern of dust events on a daily basis. Dust particles are irregularly shaped crystals Virtually all the dust mass is over 1  m in size The mass mean diameter (MMD) of dust near the source is over 5-10  m However, long range transported dust (3-10 days old) has MMD of 2-5  m Hence local dust is virtually all in the coarse mode (>2.5  m) while long-range dust has % of the mass in the PM2.5 range.

Task 2: Quantitative Estimation of Regional Natural Contributions Approach: Study each natural aerosol type in detail (dust, smoke, biogenic, sea salt) Use ALL available aerosol observations (surface and satellite) and model results Establish source strength/variability and spatio-temporal pattern at relevant scales (e.g.natural aerosol statistics) Example Natural Aerosol Analyses: Fine Dust In July, in the Southeast, Sahara dust contributes 4-8  g.m 3, about 2-4 times the local fine dust. July SeaWiFS satellite image of Sahara dust approaching the continent (July 24,1998). For more detail see: Local and Global Dust Over N. AmericaLocal and Global Dust Over N. America

Task 3. Real-Time Estimation of Natural Aerosols and Visibility Real-time Aerosol Watch System (RAW) Real-Time Virtual PM Monitoring Dashboard. A web-page for one-stop access to views of current PM/Visibility monitoring data (aerosol, weather) and model output for nowcasting and forecasting. Virtual Workgroup Website. An interactive website which facilitates the active participation of diverse members in the interpretation, discussion, summary and assessment of the aerosol events. Air Quality Managers Console. Delivers a packaged PM data and summary reports prepared by the Virtual workgroups. Helps PM managers make decisions during major aerosol events. Rationale The dominant natural aerosol sources are from windblown dust and biomass smoke. Dust and smoke events can be monitored real-time by numerous surface and satellite sensors. Both are ‘episodic’, i.e. short-term extreme concentrations that require AQ management actions. The development and implementation of RAW is already being supported at CAPITA by grants from NSF, NOAA, EPA/EMAP, NASA(pending). Incremental funding from this project would support estimating ‘Natural PM/Visibility Contributions’ during such events.

Right. SeaWiFS satellite and METAR surface haze shown near-real time in the Voyager distributed data browser Below. SeaWiFS, METAR and TOMS Absorbing Aerosol Index superimposed Satellite data are fetched from NASA GSFC; surface data from NWS/CAPITA servers Task 3: Illustration of RAW for Quebec Smoke, July 6, 2002 See

Schedule: Phase I: 2003 – Conceptual evaluation of natural conditions Analyze natural events Regional natural aerosol statistics 2005 – Interim report Phase II: 2005 – Re-evaluation of natural condition definitions Analyze natural events including model results Revised regional natural aerosol statistics 2008 – Final report