The SPoRT-WRF: Transitioning SPoRT Modeling Research Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February – 1 March, 2012 National Space Science.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Mission: Apply NASA measurement systems and unique Earth science research to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-24 hr) weather prediction at the regional.

Advertisements

SPoRT Products in Support of the GOES-R Proving Ground and NWS Forecast Operations Andrew Molthan NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT)

Mei Xu, Jamie Wolff and Michelle Harrold National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) and Developmental Testbed.

SNPP VIIRS green vegetation fraction products and application in numerical weather prediction Zhangyan Jiang 1,2, Weizhong Zheng 3,4, Junchang Ju 1,2,

© The Aerospace Corporation 2014 Observation Impact on WRF Model Forecast Accuracy over Southwest Asia Michael D. McAtee Environmental Satellite Systems.

Deirdre Kann National Weather Service WFO Albuquerque Deirdre Kann National Weather Service WFO Albuquerque 7 th GOES User’s Conference October 21, 2011.

2002 MM5 Model Evaluation 12 vs. 36 km Results Chris Emery, Yiqin Jia, Sue Kemball-Cook, and Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Zion Wang UCR.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and.

Data Assimilation Cycling with GSI and AIRS Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February – 1 March, 2012 National Space Science and Technology.

Jordan Bell NASA SPoRT Summer Intern  Background  Goals of Project  Methodology  Analysis of Land Surface Model Results  Severe weather case.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Radiance Assimilation Activities at SPoRT Will McCarty SPoRT SAC Wednesday June 13,

Improved Simulations of Clouds and Precipitation Using WRF-GSI Zhengqing Ye and Zhijin Li NASA-JPL/UCLA June, 2011.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of SPoRT Datasets Utilizing a local WRF.

Danielle M. Kozlowski NASA USRP Intern. Background Motivation Forecasting convective weather is a challenge for operational forecasters Current numerical.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Relevant OCONUS Products Gary Jedlovec NASA / MSFC, Earth Science Office

Meeting Expectations Gary Jedlovec Purpose of review SPoRT Mission and Vision Role of Science Advisory Committee Charge to Committee members transitioning.

Update of A Rapid Prototyping Capability Experiment to Evaluate CrIS / ATMS Observations for a Mesoscale Weather Event Valentine G. Anantharaj Xingang.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Weather Model Background ● The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model had been developed by various research and governmental agencies became the.

1 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop April 2007 Science Question 3: Science Question 3: Numerical Weather Prediction Aspects of Forecasting Alberta Thunderstorms.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Impact of the 4D-Var Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Data on Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008) Zhan Li and Zhaoxia Pu.

Investigating the Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Convective Forecasts for the April 25-27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak Bradley Zavodsky 1, Danielle.

Science Mission Directorate National Aeronautics and Space Administration transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies The SPoRT Center – Infusing.

Real-time SPoRT LIS and Applications in Modeling and Situational Awareness Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February to 1 March 2012.

SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT)

SPoRT’s Web Presence Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Bradley ZavodskyErik Reimers Andrew MolthanPaul Meyer Geoffrey.

Warn on Forecast Briefing September 2014 Warn on Forecast Brief for NCEP planning NSSL and GSD September 2014.

The Lightning Warning Product Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Dennis Buechler Geoffrey Stano Richard Blakeslee transitioning.

Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 18 January 2007 Paper 5A.4: Slide 1 American Meteorological Society 21 st Conference.

SPoRT Real-time Vegetation Dataset and Impact on Land Surface and Numerical Models Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February to 1 March.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Recent Accomplishments from the NASA SPoRT Center Andrew Molthan.

Session 2: Modeling and Data Assimilation Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February - 1 March, 2012 National Space Science and Technology.

Session 2: Product Development Science Advisory Committee Meeting 26 – 28 August, 2014 National Space Science and Technology Center, Huntsville, AL.

Project Title: High Performance Simulation using NASA Model and Observation Products for the Study of Land Atmosphere Coupling and its Impact on Water.

1 CIMSS Participation in the Development of a GOES-R Proving Ground Timothy J. Schmit NOAA/NESDIS/Satellite Applications and Research Advanced Satellite.

NASA SPoRT’s Pseudo Geostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) GOES-R Science Week Meeting September, 2011 Huntsville, Alabama Geoffrey Stano ENSCO, Inc./NASA.

Other Related Activities Gary Jedlovec transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Single image MODIS Composite.

Applications of the Land Information System (LIS) Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Jonathan Case transitioning unique.

Mission: Transition unique NASA and NOAA observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community to improve short-term weather forecasts.

AN ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE FOR WEATHER FORECASTING AND REGIONAL CLIMATE STUDIES Gary Jedlovec 1, Jorge Vazquez 2, and Ed Armstrong 2 1NASA/MSFC Earth Science.

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 Regional Modeling using MODIS SST composites Prepared.

111 SPoRT SAC, Nov 2009 transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Forecasting Lightning Threat Using Cloud Models With Explicit.

Performance of the Experimental 4.5 km WRF-NMM Model During Recent Severe Weather Outbreaks Steven Weiss, John Kain, David Bright, Matthew Pyle, Zavisa.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Evaluating Cloud Microphysics Schemes in the WRF Model Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Andrew Molthan transitioning.

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 Infrared Temperature and.

Session 2: Improved Situational Awareness Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February – 1 March 2012 Future Activities National Space Science.

NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL) Objectives – Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather –

Gary Jedlovec Roadmap to Success transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations.

High-Resolution SST Impacts on WRF Forecasts Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Jonathan Case Kevin Fuell Scott Dembek.

Transitioning Unique NASA Data and Research Technologies to Operations The Utility of the Real-Time NASA Land Information System for Drought Monitoring.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS AIRS Profile Assimilation - Case Study results Shih-Hung Chou, Brad Zavodsky Gary Jedlovec,

Transitioning research data to the operational weather community Overview of GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the Short-term Prediction Research and.

Impact of AIRS Radiances and Profiles on WRF Forecasts Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Bradley Zavodsky Shih-Hung.

Progress Update of Numerical Simulation for OSSE Project Yongzuo Li 11/18/2008.

R2O and O2R between NSSL and SPC: The benefits of Collocation Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, Mike Coniglio, Harold Brooks, Israel Jirak, and Adam Clark.

Gary Jedlovec Role of External Partners Definitions Partners Function transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations.

Recommendations and SPoRT Response transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Gary Jedlovec SAC Meeting – June 2007.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 In-House Utilization of AIRS Data and Products for Numerical Weather Prediction Will.

SPoRT’s Current and Planned Data Assimilation Activities Inaugural SPoRT/NWS Collaborative Partners Workshop 3-4 March 2010 Bradley Zavodsky Shih-Hung.

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF and the coastal marine environment Kate LaCasse SOO/SPoRT Workshop 11 July.

General Meeting Moscow, 6-10 September 2010 High-Resolution verification for Temperature ( in northern Italy) Maria Stefania Tesini COSMO General Meeting.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Gary Jedlovec and the SPoRT Team SPoRT Accomplishments.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Project Future Directions.

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 Development and Transition of Satellite Products for.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of MODIS SST Utilizing a local WRF.

Indirect impact of ozone assimilation using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for regional applications Kathryn Newman1,2,

Impact of Traditional and Non-traditional Observation Sources using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation Data Assimilation System for Regional Applications.

CAPS Real-time Storm-Scale EnKF Data Assimilation and Forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments: Towards the Goal.

Presentation transcript:

The SPoRT-WRF: Transitioning SPoRT Modeling Research Sixth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee 28 February – 1 March, 2012 National Space Science and Technology Center, Huntsville, AL transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

Relevance to SPoRT Accurate forecasting of convection (e.g. timing, intensity, mode, location) often cited as key forecast challenge by WFOs and HWT Since SPoRT’s inception, different research projects have examined the sensitivity of an individual dataset or capability The SPoRT-WRF is the first attempt to integrate all of SPoRT’s research into a single real-time modeling system SPoRT-WRF serves a dual role in supporting R2O: – HWT/NSSL testbed evaluation enhances collaboration – Initialization of local models at WFOs supports end-users Use of “Weather in a Box” resources and NU-WRF enables evaluation of additional NASA capabilities transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Photo by K. McGrath

Accomplishments Since Previous SAC “SPoRT should actively seek out partnerships and collaborative projects with other NOAA/NWS testbeds and use its ability to deliver experimental datasets to the field as a unique strength” – Diagnostic member evaluated at NOAA’s HWT EFP in 2011 – Feedback from EFP has been used to update the SPoRT-WRF methodology “Broaden the use of [SST data denial experiments] or similar concepts to help quantify the impact of unique NASA data sets” – Takes successful data denial experiments and quantifies overall SPoRT data impact – WRF-EMS does not support data assimilation or WRF/LIS coupling Conference papers at NWA and AMS regarding evaluation of SPoRT-WRF performance transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Photo by K. McGrath

SPoRT-WRF V1 Overview Identical core, domain, resolution, and physics options as NSSL- WRF used by SPC (expect for higher-resolution ICs and BCs) Unique NASA datasets and capabilities: transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations SPoRT SST Composite Enhances over-ocean fluxes and seabreeze forecasting LIS Enhances soil characteristics and energy fluxes for weakly-forced convection AIRS Profiles Enhances upper-air moisture and stability at asynoptic times to improve heavy precipitation MODIS GVF Composite Replaces coarse climatology to enhance energy fluxes for weakly-forced convection

SPoRT-WRF V1 Procedure Initialized each day at 0000 UTC; 36 total forecast hours Surface datasets integrated into SPoRT-WRF at initialization using a modified version of the NU-WRF Preprocessing System – MODIS GVFs are incorporated into the system through the LIS – LIS is run offline once per day to provide land-surface information for model – SPoRT SSTs are generated offline and brought in as a replacement for the RTG SST product AIRS profiles assimilated using WRF-Var with 9-h forecast as background transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations 00Z 04Z 08Z 16Z SST Composite generated AIRS assimilation 9-hr WRF forecast 12Z 27-hr WRF forecast Daily LIS Delivery to HWT and internal website Current Daily SPoRT-WRF Timeline

Impact on April Forecasts MET used to produce statistical evaluation of surface characteristics for historic tornado outbreak Conclusion: SPoRT-WRF tends to be have a cool and dry bias for 2-m T and T d transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations SPC Tornado Reports April m Temperature 2-m Dew Point April 25 April 26 April 27 NSSL WRF No AIRS SPoRT-WRF SPoRT-WRF Mean Forecast Error (F-O) Compared to METAR, SAO, and Mesonet Observations

Comparison of Reflectivity Forecasts A SPoRT undergraduate summer intern student performed an evaluation of the reflectivity forecasts from the April 2011 tornado outbreak Conclusion: Some convection suppression is seen but mixed results in terms of reflectivity for these cases transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations 1-km Reflectivity at 2100 UTC 25 April 2011 NSSL SPoRT Observed NSSL SPoRT Observed 1-km Reflectivity at 1500 UTC 26 April km Reflectivity at 0000 UTC 28 April 2011 NSSL SPoRT Observed

Subjective Rating of 18-06Z Forecasts of 1-km AGL Reflectivity Subjective Comparison of NSSL- and SPoRT WRF for 1-km AGL Reflectivity Feedback from Spring Experiment SPoRT-WRF evaluated at NOAA HWT’s EFP – Brings together modelers and operational forecasters to subjectively evaluate model performance and discuss the strengths and limitations of regional models and how they should be used operationally – Case, McCaul, and Zavodsky attended EFP Each day, participants evaluated a number of regional models – Overall feedback was that the SPoRT-WRF was too cool and dry and suppressed convection (some good; some bad) – SPoRT-WRF performed comparably to NCAR-WRF and worse than the NSSL-WRF transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Subjective Comparison of NSSL- and SPoRT WRF for T and T d

SPoRT-WRF V2 Based on HWT EFP participant feedback, model imbalances from assimilation methodology leads to cool and dry bias SPoRT-WRF V2 Development is complete and ready for 2012 season – NU-WRF (with WRF/LIS coupling) and Goddard physics schemes – Continuous cycling methodology using GSI (AIRS & IASI profiles, conventional, satellite) – Expanded SPoRT MODIS GVF composite domain Evaluation at 2012 HWT EFP with additional feedback for continued improvements Daily real-time website completed for posting model output Daily real-time website transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations 21Z 00Z 03Z 12Z SST Composite generated tm12 to tm00 GSI assimilation 06Z 36-hr WRF forecast Delivery to internal website 00Z Initialized SPoRT-WRF Timeline 09Z LIS

Summary/Conclusions SPoRT-WRF is a unique configuration of the WRF-ARW that integrates all SPoRT modeling research into a real-time system to address forecast challenge of convection in NWP Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA’s HWT as deterministic model at EFP Testbed feedback indicated cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Development of SPoRT-WRF V2 with new DA strategy, WRF/LIS coupling, and expanded GVFs is complete and ready for 2012 season; future versions will be modified based on feedback transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Photo by K. McGrath

Future Work Short-term plans: – Investigate impacts of NASA datasets and model options on convective forecasts – Evaluate how well SPoRT-WRF performs (both qualitatively and quantitatively) against other operational/real-time models? – Determine which individual components of the SPoRT-WRF have the largest impact on the performance – Transition SPoRT-WRF output to select SR Modeling Collaboration offices in form of forecasts and/or initial and boundary conditions for local model runs Long-term plans: – Additional research activities that are undertaken by the modeling and DA group will be applied to future versions of the SPoRT-WRF – By next season, real-time data from Suomi NPP (assimilation of CrIS profiles, VIIRS brought into SST and GVF composites) will be brought into the system transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations