PSCI 4252/Politics of Ethnicity and Nationalism Theories of Ethnic Conflict

Ted Gurr “Relative Deprivation”

Steven Van Evera Attributes of nationalism that can determine propensity for war Statehood attained or unattained? Position on national diaspora: Do they seek movement cohesion? Respect for other nations right to national independence Oppression of minorities

Van Evera Structural Conditions that make ethnic Conflict more likely: – Ratio between stateless nationalism and states is high and states are weak – Degree of Ethnic Intermingling is high – Borders are indefensible – Correspondence of borders w/ethnic boundaries is weak

Van Evera Political Conditions: – Greater the past transgressions, the more likely the conflict – More recent the conflict, the more likely – Level of remorse expressed by aggressor Perceptual Conditions – Nationalist Self- Image – Beliefs are similar, coexistence possible – Self myth-making/self-glorifying/self-whitewashing

Lake & Rothchild Ethnic conflict is caused by “Collective Fear of the Future”.

When ethnic groups come to fear for their future (physical) security, they prepare for conflict, thus initiating a security dilemma. Several things can cause such a fear to develop, such as a decline in cultural security or past experience with conflict. The factor that Lake and Rothchild dwell on the most is rising anarchy, essentially a Hobbesian argument: as the Leviathan (the state) declines (becomes unable to prevent conflict), ethnic groups fear that their physical security may be at risk. Variables: – Y: Ethnic conflict – X1: Fear of what the future might bring (conditioned strongly by what the past has brought). – X2: Three strategic dilemmas: information failure, credible commitment problems, and incentives to use force pre-emptively (the security dilemma). – X3: "Nonrational factors" like "emotions, historical memories, and myths"

Horowitz & Ethnic Political Parties Can Political Parties produce ethnic conflict? – “In some countries in the West, ethnic cleavages coexist with other historic sources of conflict. However, societies that are deeply riven along preponderant ethnic cleavage – as in many Asian and African states – tend to produce party systems that exacerbate ethnic conflict.” – Politicians have created ethnic conflict. – Two-party systems have moderate ideological differences where multi-party systems polarize ideology. – Various ethnic groups rarely distribute themselves randomly among competing parties (even in the West)

Ethnic Parties in the U.S.? 76% of African-Americans call themselves Democrats and 92% voted Democrat in the last presidential election 67% of Latino-Americans say they are Democrats & the same percentage voted for Barack Obama

Sources of Ethnic Parties Colonial Heritage Internal imperatives of the ethnic group as a community External imperatives Post-ethnic civil war Candidates who support one ethnic group over another Descriptive Representation Parents

Why does this lead to conflict? Once one party organizes ethnically, others tend to follow. Coincidence of party with ethnic group boundaries prevents the exercise of choice by voters. This is conducive to fears of permanent domination. This fixity of ethnically-based parties’ ascriptive predictability outcomes fosters conflict.

Roland Paris – “Peacebuilding and the Limits of Liberal Internationalism” Liberal Internationalism – Market economy plus a liberal democratic polity This strategy has “the perverse effect of undermining the very peace they were meant to buttress.” “The liberal internationalist paradigm of peacebuilding had, in various ways, exacerbated social tensions and thus contributed to the continuation or renewal of instability.” “Capitalism and democracy encourage conflict and competition and if fact thrive on them.”

Paris’ Alternative – Strategic Liberalization Gradual and controlled democratization instead of shock therapy – “The fallacy of electoralism” Design elections that reward moderation vice extremism Longer involvement of international community in the recipient nations (7-9 yrs) “Authoritarian solutions to war-shattered states should not be rejected out of hand.” Create effective intl coordinating bodies. Partition my lead to ethnic cleansing