2010 ELECTION UPDATE EVAN TRACEY PRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION

Kantar Media – Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) Innovative technology, experienced professionals  Providing Political Ad Research Since 1997  Tracking and Analyzing Political, Public Affairs and Issue-Advocacy Advertising  Experienced Political Researchers  Advising Clients on Media Strategy, Forecasting Media Buys, Public Relations and Crisis Communication 2© 2010 Kantar Media

3 Unique Insights… CUSTOM SYNDICATED MODEL Campaign Media Analysis Group …Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats

2010 Election Ad Outlook 2010 Ad Landscape 2010 Election Themes 2010 Stretch Run 4© 2010 Kantar Media

2010 ELECTION OUTLOOK Political Media Trends  Campaigns Still Spend At the End  Ad Spending $160m Above The Same Time Period in  Broadcast Media Receiving Bulk of Campaign Spending.  Digital and Social Media, Radio and Cable spending Also Up. 5© 2010 Kantar Media

2010 CAMPAIGN LANDSCAPE What is Driving Ad Spending in 2010? 1.Competitive, Multi- Candidate and Special Elections 2.Control of Congress is at Stake 3.Big Issues Nationally and Locally 4.Early Voting and Changes to Campaign Law 6© 2010 Kantar Media

Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon – Federal Races Party Control at Stake U.S. House & Senate House and Senate  Over 100 U.S. House Races are Considered ‘In- Play’  Bonus & Surprisingly Competitive Senate Races 7© 2010 Kantar Media Return of Incumbent Insecurity Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Insecurity

8© 2010 Kantar Media

Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon State & Local State & Local Races  37 Governors Running  More than Half of Governors will be New the Day After 2010 Elections  Big State & Stakes  Strong Party Committees  Angry Unions  Ballot Measures  Down-Ballot Turnover 9© 2010 Kantar Media

10© 2010 Kantar Media Candidates & Groups/Party Spending Up

2010 Issue Ads Year Over Year Consistent Spending Migrating to Network & Cable  2/3 of Spending is National Remainder of 2010  Policy Becomes Politics in Even Years  “Obamacare” Rebranding & Post Gulf Spill Energy Bill  New England Triangle  Possibility of a “Lame Duck” Session 11© 2010 Kantar Media

Role of the Digital Media in 2010  More Spending… But Still a Fraction  Campaign Doing More With Social Media Tools & Video  Web Video Grabbing Headlines, Not Winning Elections  OFA is MIA  Online Working to Become a Bigger Part of the End Game  Online Raising More Money for Traditional “In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee: As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed. 12© 2010 Kantar Media

The Political Climate & Themes For © 2010 Kantar Media

2010 Political Climate –Republicans are leading Democrats on the economy, jobs and federal spending –The president’s approval rating among Independents is only 40%, share of voters who identify as Independents is up to 16% engaged –Polls show that the engaged voters are angry about spending and the stimulus package; advantage GOP Mostly bad news for the Democrats 14© 2010 Kantar Media “A month is a light year in politics.” — Gov. Haley Barbour

Political Theme 2010 is the “Break Room” Election Swing Voter is Employed »Economic Insecurity = Incumbent Insecurity »Impact or Lack There Of – Washington Policy Making »Spending, Debt & Bailouts »This is a “Role of Government” Election »Over Half of All Ads Negative So Far 15© 2010 Kantar Media Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents

The Stretch Run 16© 2010 Kantar Media

What to “Expect” the Final 7 Weeks Historically 75% of Political Ad Spending Local Campaigns Going On The Air Extremely Negative Rhetoric Democrats Leverage Money & Firewall Strategy House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average 17© 2010 Kantar Media

2010 FORECAST: THE BIG QUESTION WILL THERE BE MONEY? 2010 Record Fundraising $1 Billion COH & $1.2 Billion Raised this Year (Federal)  Some Party Committees Lagging, While Others are Setting Records  Groups/Unions Filling the Gaps “There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.” …William McKinley 18© 2010 Kantar Media

Impact of “Citizens United” Groups Come in Various Sizes Return of the Super PAC’s State & Race Specific Groups No More Magic Words Limited Role For Corporations 19© 2010 Kantar Media Fighting Over the Same Ground Heaviest Spend at the End Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races” Targeting “Trophy Races”

End Game For Political Ads  Personal, Negative & Plentiful  Final Ad Push Could Go National  Unclear Role of the Groups  Online Working to be a Bigger Part of the End Game At this time, we feel ad spending in the 2010 elections along with issue spending will be better than the 2008 & 2006 cycles, and there is greater upside at this point. 20© 2010 Kantar Media

Numbers to Watch This Fall Last Day of Oktoberfest How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause” Status of the Bush Tax Cuts Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races Late Fundraising Totals by Party Halloween October Surprises? Financial Markets Final Unemployment Numbers Consumer Confidence Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers 21© 2010 Kantar Media

How Many Of These People Are In Iowa on November 3, 2010! 22© 2010 Kantar Media