Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 DOE/NASEO 2007/08 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 9, 2007 Washington, DC Guy F. Caruso Administrator, Energy.

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Presentation transcript:

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 DOE/NASEO 2007/08 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 9, 2007 Washington, DC Guy F. Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 U.S. average fuel expenditures are expected to be higher for all fuels this winter (October – March). Winter = October 1 through March 31. Expenditures are based on typical per household consumption adjusted for weather. Warmer and colder cases represent 10-percent decrease or 10-percent increase in heating degree-days, respectively.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 U.S. Heating Degree-Days Population-Weighted Winter is expected to be 4 % colder than , but still 2 % warmer than 30-year average.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Natural gas prices are expected to be higher than last winter. Henry Hub Winter Average Spot Price 10% Colder = $8.71/ mcf Base Case = $7.79/ mcf 10% Warmer = $7.05/ mcf Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet (mcf) Residential Winter Average Price 10% Colder = $13.53/ mcf Base Case = $13.14/ mcf 10% Warmer = $12.87/ mcf Residential Price Henry Hub Spot Price Winter

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 U.S. natural gas in storage is projected to remain above historical averages. Deviation from 5-year Average, Billion Cubic Feet

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Natural gas heating bills are projected to be higher for all regions this winter. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Consumption Average Price Total Expenditures West South Midwest Northeast U.S. Average

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Crude oil prices, having recently exceeded $80 per barrel, are projected to decline slowly over the forecast. WTI = West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Multiple and hard-to-predict uncertainties drive the oil market forecast Weather Non-OPEC Supply Growth Iran Iraq Economic Growth OPEC Production Decisions Nigeria Venezuela Value of U.S. Dollar Refinery Outages

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Retail gasoline prices are projected to be higher in Average Summer Price 2006 $2.84 / gallon 2007 $2.93 / gallon 2008 $2.97 / gallon Summer = April 1 through September 30.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Retail heating oil prices are projected to average about 40 cents per gallon higher than last winter. October 2007 – March 2008 Averages 10% Colder = $2.91/ gallon Base Case = $2.88/ gallon 10% Warmer = $2.85/ gallon

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 U.S. winter heating oil expenditures projected to increase for all regions. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Consumption Average Price Total Expenditures West South Midwest Northeast U.S. Average

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Residential propane prices are expected to average about 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter. October 2007 – March 2008 Average 10% Colder = $2.34/ gallon Base Case = $2.28/ mcf 10% Warmer = $2.20/ gallon

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Propane inventories are low. Actual / Base Case 10% Colder 10% Warmer Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Propane expenditures are projected to increase in all regions. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Consumption Average Price Total Expenditures West South Midwest Northeast U.S. Average

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Winter electricity expenditure increases are expected to be smaller than other fuels. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Consumption Average Price Total Expenditures West South Midwest Northeast U.S. Average

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 Wrap up:  On average, U.S. households will pay about $88 (10%) more for heating this winter.  Higher expenditures are driven by higher unit prices and weather-related increases in consumption.  Under the baseline forecast, natural gas expenditures could be about $78 (10%) higher for the average U.S. household this winter.  Heating oil expenditures are projected to be about $319 (22%) higher for the average U.S. household this winter. Electricity expenditures are forecasted to be $32 (4%) higher the average U.S. household this winter.  A colder winter would raise estimated expenditures somewhat from those of the base case weather scenario.