International Relations Introduction to International Relations Levels of Analysis Jaechun Kim

Two Episodes Episode 1. June 28, 1914, Sarajevo, Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary was assassinated in Sarajevo by a Serbian. “Pan-Serbism” of Serbia  Austria-Hungary July 23, Austria-Hungary presented an ultimatum to Serbia… Serbia ignored… July 28, Austria declared war on Serbia… Why did WWI break out?

3rd level – The pathology of tight alliance system under the multi-polar system…; multi-polar international system is to blame; not the choice of leaders… Triple Alliance vs. Triple Entente (Allies) 2nd level – Major European countires were ruled by Military dictatorship instead of civilian democracy… 1st level – German leaders took advantage of the incident… so they were to blame!

Episode II December 1997, the value of Baht decreased by 33 percent… Why? Dumping Baht… Before this happened, the financial houses in Thai had borrowed American dollars and lent them to Thai businesses… Thai businesses had to repay their debt, but they couldn’t… Why? Financial houses left the country…funding is not available… Many Thai firms went bankrupt !

This spread to Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea (MIT + S.K.) Global investors left these countries…  Devaluation of currencies on a huge scale… Businesses could not replay their debt Why did Asian Financial (IMF) crisis break out?

3rd level – Characteristics of international financial market and traits of international capital (herd-like behavior)… there is no safe-pin… 2nd level – Characteristics of economic system of MIT+S. Korea; Crony capitalism; an economy in which success in business depends on close relationships between business people and government officials; too much governmental control over the economy 1st level – Decision makers were stupid!

How should we analyze international events? Why bother? How should we analyze international events? One way to analyze international events is to use concept of LoA… Levels of Analysis Refers to the levels of factors that affect international relations… levels of factors that explain events in international relations… Kenneth Waltz, ‘Man, the State, and War’ 3 images or 3 levels… Introduction to International Relations

3rd Level (Systemic Level) “Structural” characteristics of international system… Rationales: Characteristics of international system rather than states or decision-makers matters more to international outcomes… System logic drives behavior of states… States are similar… Introduction to International Relations

Distribution of Power (Balance of Power) Bi-polar Stability (Waltz) – multi-polar system is dangerous! Hegemonic Stability Theory!  Distribution of relative power – this system wide characteristic – will define how states behave… State’s position in international system makes a huge difference… Unless its position in international system changes, states won’t change their behavior… Economic Interdependence Study structural factors of international system… or system-wide characteristics… Structure instead of Agents; Whole instead of Individual; Forest instead Tree…!!

Usefulness: Weaknesses: Explaining longer-term trend… Providing a “big picture!” Weaknesses: Can’t explain particular events in detail… Do states in similar position act similarly??? Top down approach – minimizes the importance of the internal structures of states... or decision makers…

2nd Level (State Level) Analytic focus is on the state; internal make-up of states; nature of domestic politics Rationales: Need to examine “black box” known as the “state” to explain events in IR… States are inherently different and they are major actors in IR! States’ behavior derives from state’s features! Domestic politics matters to foreign policy decisions!   Introduction to International Relations

Democratic Peace scholarship The behavior of democracies are fundamentally different from totalitarian states… Capitalist states behave differently Domestic political processes Domestic political motivations are the driving forces… All politics are local! How states behave in international area can be traced back to the domestic politics… Theory of Diversionary War! Natures of states or domestic political processes as the most important variables… (State is the black box)!!

1st Level (Individual Level) Importance of the individual decision makers… Rationales: It is the people who make the policy decisions…!! Quality of the leadership matters! - Good man makes good policies and bad man make bad policies… Cognitive factors and psychological factors of the decision makers… Do some mental exercises with LoA… !! Introduction to International Relations

Some Caveats - HOW USEFUL is the Levels of Analysis? When you analyze events (in IR), you need theoretical (analytic) guidance… Avoid a “laundry list” … prioritize…! Analyze with theoretical guidance… Introduction to International Relations

Theoretical Parsimony? More with less is better!? Trade off between theoretical parsimony and explanatory breadth… Being a “multi-level” analyst is OK? Shifting from one level to another seems to be OK… depending on the nature of events that you analyze… Relevance of different levels in different contexts…!! Although you will develop your own theoretical taste…! But to say all matters (equally) is not a good approach! Introduction to International Relations