1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 21, 2011 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular southeastern India, northeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Elsewhere, 90 day rainfall is at near or above normal levels.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is at below normal levels along coastal Indian states of northern bay of Bengal, Thailand, and northeastern Australia. However, northern parts of Northern Territory and northwestern Queensland of Australia received higher than normal rainfall.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, parts of Northern Territory province of Australia received above normal rainfall and along the border of Papa New Guinea with Indonesia. Elsewhere in the region, the weekly rainfall was generally below normal.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation An extensive anomalous ridge/high pressure centered off the east coast of China just south of Japan dominated the circulation and thus less rainfall in and over adjacent countries of the monsoon region.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular southeastern India, northeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Elsewhere, 90 day rainfall is at near or above normal levels. The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is at below normal levels along coastal Indian states of northern bay of Bengal, Thailand, and northeastern Australia. However, northern parts of Northern Territory and northwestern Queensland of Australia received higher than normal rainfall. This past week, parts of Northern Territory province of Australia received above normal rainfall and along the border of Papa New Guinea with Indonesia. Elsewhere in the region, the weekly rainfall was generally below normal. An extensive anomalous ridge/high pressure centered off the east coast of China just south of Japan dominated the circulation and thus less rainfall in and over adjacent countries of the monsoon region. The NCEP GFS model, for the upcoming week, is predicting above normal rainfall for southeastern India and for large parts of northeastern Australia where it was relatively this past week.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology