Ames Research Center Incremental Contingency Planning Richard Dearden, Nicolas Meuleau, Sailesh Ramakrishnan, David E. Smith, Rich Washington window [10,14:30]

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Presentation transcript:

Ames Research Center Incremental Contingency Planning Richard Dearden, Nicolas Meuleau, Sailesh Ramakrishnan, David E. Smith, Rich Washington window [10,14:30] power Workspace pan data Drive (-1)Dig(5)Visual servo (.2, -.15)NIR Lo resRock finderHi resCarbonate [10,14:30] XXXX ?

Ames Research Center Limited onboard processing CPU, memory, time Safety sequence checking Anticipation setup steps Why Contingency Planning ??

Ames Research Center The Planning Problem Visual servo (.2, -.15) Warmup NIR Dig(5)Drive(-1)NIR ……… Compress Drive(2) Maximize (Expected) Scientific Return Given: start time pose energy available actions with uncertain: durations resource usage Possible science objectives images samples

Ames Research Center Technical Challenges Continuous time (& resources) Continuous outcomes Time (& resource) constraints Concurrency Goal selection & optimization g 1, g 2, g 3, g 4 … Visual servo (.2, -.15) Warmup NIR Lo resRock finderNIR ∆p = ∆t = NIR E > 2 Ah t  [10:00, 14:00] Time PowerStorage

Ames Research Center Just in Case (JIC) Scheduling 1. Seed schedule 2.Identify most likely failure 3.Generate a contingency branch 4.Integrate the branch Advantages: Tractability Simple plans Anytime.4.2.1

Ames Research Center Just in Case (JIC) Planning 1. Seed plan 2.Identify most likely failure 3.Generate a contingency branch 4.Integrate the branch.4.2.1

Ames Research Center Limits of JIC Scheduling Heuristics Dig(60)Visual servo (.2, -.15) Lo resRock finderLIB  = 120s  = 60s  = 300s  = 5s  = 1000s  = 500s t  [9:00, 16:00]  = 5s  = 1s  = 120s  = 20s V = 50 HiRes V = 10 t  [10:00, 13:50]  = 600s  = 60s t  [9:00, 14:30]  = 5s  = 1s V = 5 Warmup LIB  = 1200s  = 20s Most probable failure points may not be the best branch-points: It is often too late to attempt other goals when the plan is about to fail.  : most probable failures $ : most interesting branch point Expected Utility Power Start time :20 14:40 14:20 14:00 13:40 True for all initial states in the grey box.   Drive (-2)NIR  V = 100 t  [10:00, 14:00]  = 600s  = 60s $

Ames Research Center Just in Case (JIC) Planning 1. Seed plan 2.Identify best branch point 3.Generate a contingency branch 5. Evaluate & Integrate the branch ? ? ? Construct plangraph Back-propagate value tables Compute gain Select branch condition & goals ? r VbVb VmVm

Ames Research Center Construct Plangraph g1g1 g2g2 g3g3 g4g4

Ames Research Center Value Tables g1g1 g2g2 g3g3 g4g4 V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 r r r r

Ames Research Center Example A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e 1

Ames Research Center Simple Propagation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e

Ames Research Center Simple Propagation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e

Ames Research Center Simple Propagation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e

Ames Research Center Conjunctions A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e r 1 2 t

Ames Research Center Propagation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e r 1 2 t 5 1 r

Ames Research Center Propagation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e r 1 2 t 5 1 r 1 5 t 1 15 t

Ames Research Center Combining Tables A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e r 1 2 t 5 1 r 1 5 t 1 15 t 1 5 t

Ames Research Center Discharging Assumptions A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e r 1 2 t 5 1 r 1 5 t 1 15 t 1 5 t

Ames Research Center Propagation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e

Ames Research Center Combining Tables A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e

Ames Research Center Combining Tables A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e

Ames Research Center Ordering A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e DCE CDE AB 1 8

Ames Research Center Achieving Multiple Goals A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e g+g’ g g’ +

Ames Research Center Achieving Multiple Goals A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e g+g’ g g’ 5 g+g’ g g’ 25830

Ames Research Center Goal Annotation A E B e 5 (1, 5) (3, 3) (10, 15) (2, 2) C D st r q p g g’ e g g g’ g+g’ g g’ 5 g+g’ g g’ 25830

Ames Research Center Just in Case (JIC) Planning 1. Seed plan 2.Identify best branch point 3.Generate a contingency branch 5. Evaluate & Integrate the branch ? ? ? Construct plangraph Back-propagate value tables Compute gain Select branch condition & goals ? r VbVb VmVm

Ames Research Center Estimating Branch Value V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 V r V r V r Max V r

Ames Research Center Plan Statistics r V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 P r plan value function resource probability VmVm VbVb r

Ames Research Center Expected Branch Gain V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 P r Gain = ∫ P(r) max{0,V b (r) - V m (r)} dr ∞ 0 VbVb r r VbVb VmVm

Ames Research Center Selecting the Branch Condition V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 P r branch condition r VbVb VmVm VbVb r branch condition

Ames Research Center Selecting Branch Goals r V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 P r branch goals g1g1 g3g3 g3g3 g1g1 VbVb r r VbVb VmVm

Ames Research Center Evaluating the Branch 1. Seed plan 2.Identify best branch point 3.Generate a contingency branch 4.Evaluate & integrate the branch ? ? ? ? r VbVb VmVm Compute value function Compute actual gain

Ames Research Center Actual Branch Gain r VbVb P r Gain = ∫ P(r) max{0,V b (r) - V m (r)} dr ∞ 0 VmVm r VbVb Branch value function actual branch condition

Ames Research Center Remarks: Single Plangraph 1. Seed plan 2.Identify best branch point 3.Generate a contingency branch 5. Evaluate & Integrate the branch ? ? ? Construct plangraph Back-propagate value tables Compute gain Select branch condition & goals ? r VbVb VmVm

Ames Research Center Plan Graph g1g1 g2g2 g3g3 g4g4 V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 r r r r

Ames Research Center Branch Initial Conditions g1g1 g2g2 g3g3 g4g4 V1V1 V2V2 V3V3 V4V4 r r r r v r v r v r v r v r {p} {q,r} {p,r}

Ames Research Center Single Plangraph 1. Seed plan 2.Identify best branch point 3.Generate a contingency branch 4.Evaluate & integrate the branch ? ? ? ? r VbVb VmVm Discharge conditions Compute gain Select branch condition & goals Construct single plangraph Back-propagate value tables

Ames Research Center Issues Sensor costs Setup steps Utility updates Floating contingencies Drive (-1)Dig(5)Visual servo (.2, -.15)Hi res Warm NIR Lo resRock finderNIR [11,14:00] Visual servoHi resVisual servoNIR V = 100 V’ = 30 Lo resRock finderNIR Drive (-1)Dig(5)Visual servo (.2, -.15)Hi res?

Ames Research Center The End.