ET2050 State of the Works TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012

We will be in a labyrinth? Insufficient information We will play chess? Full information & insufficient knowledge The challenge are we facing

It’s a mysterious adventure… not enough information is available, nobody really knows, and we have to keep searching!

ET2050 Work plan

Adjustment of Project Structure Submitted to ESPON CU in 17th February 2012, no feed-back yet Once new Structure and Budget will be approved, we will proceed to signature of the Partnership Agreement, based on the adjusted project structure (For Partners under decentralised FLC systems, no need to reissue Designation Checklist despite budget changes).

Progress Reports (deadline 1st March 2012) Submitted reports University Thessaly Politecnico di Milano RKK IGEAT MCRIT ERSILIA Missing reports TERSYN (ESPON CU deals with) IOM S&W SGH NORDREGIO RIKS ISIS Progress Reports: 30 April 2012 to be sent by MCRIT to ESPON CU

Inception Report Reponse (29 February 2012) Put substantial effort in covering all 31 ESPON countries. Consider the results and/or methodologies of additional ESPON projects. Be more ambitious, explore a broader range of scenarios Use more elementary building blocks in developing the extreme scenarios Construct a coherent overview of the themes and possible indicators Reflect in more detail on the global trends, drivers and values Enhance and elaborate in more detail the qualitative analysis methods. Elaborate and present clear ideas on structuring the scenarios and visions Analyse the robustness of the results for major changes in the assumptions Discuss also the ‘Present State of the EU’ with stakeholders Describe and clarify how TIA and wild cards will be applied in practice. Explain how results of the forecasts will be communicated to the stakeholders.

Macro-regional reports (deadline 27 February 2012) Submitted reports: South East Mediterranean by UTH (version ) Eastern Europe by SGH (version ) South Mediterranean by POLIMI (version ) Outermost Regions by MCRIT (version ) Danube by RKK (version ) West Mediterranean by MCRIT (version ) Missing reports North-West region (IGEAT) Central and Alpine region (S&W) Baltic and Nordic region (Nordregio) Deadline for final reports, 15 April 2012

Sectoral reports (deadline 27 February 2012) Submitted reports Transport by S&W (version ) Environment by IGEAT (version ) Economy by POLIMI (version ) Technology by MCRIT (version ) Energy by TERSYN (version ) Missing reports Demography (IOM) Land-Uses (RIKS) Governance (Nordregio) Deadline for final reports, 15 April 2012

Next deadlines Sectoral and Macro-regional Final Reports 15 April 2012 State of the European Territory (integration of sectoral and macro- regional reports) Baseline 2030 Reference Data and (Draf) Forecast for Baseline 2030 (2050?) Reference Scenarios and Visions Interim Report. 31 May 2012 Workshop for Baseline June 2012 in Aalborg (ESPON Open Seminar) Next TPG Meeting, October 2012 in…

State of European Territory (based on sectorial and territorial reports) Table of contents defined in Barcelona TPG meeting Sample reports included in Inception Report (December 2012) Draft reports (27 February 2012) Final reports (15 April 2012) MCRIT will integrate reports for Interim Report (31 May 2012). An interactive online discussion will help to refine reports and make them more useful for the Baseline definition.

Reference Scenarios and Visions MCRIT developed Virtual Library on References (since beginning of project) References used for preliminary Scenarios discussions and Baseline Draft report on Reference Scenarios and Visions at EU level and World level by MCRIT and ISIS (31 May 2012) to be included in the Interim Report.

Baseline 2030 MCRIT based on discussions of 19th March TPG meeting will develop a draft Baseline. (30 March 2012) S&W and Polimi will review and refine Baseline (15 April 2012) ET2050 Expert Panel will answer a survey based on Baseline Each partner proposes members for Expert Panel. (20 April 2012) Baseline 2030 will be included in the Interim Report (31 May 2012)

Reference data and forecast for Baseline 2030 MCRIT will provide 50 key indicators at EU27 level and selected variables for the rest of the World, for Baseline 2030 and (15 April 2012) Partners with modelling responsibilities, to provide refined and disaggregated results at NUTS0 and NUTS2/NUTS3 levels for these indicators, and others. (Draft: 15 May 2012, Final 15 June 2012)

ET2050 Participatory activities IGEAT developed a directory of contacts and established a first contact with key persons and institutions, following phone call and personal visits to present ET2050 and get information on the ongoing activities in future-oriented studies carried out by other institutions IGEAT will carry on small groups consultations according to the Participatory Plan submitted in the Inception Report. Present State and Baseline as initial subjects to be discussed (Reponse by SB to IR) IGEAT will cooperate in ESPON CU Thematic workshops and permanently interact with ESPON CU to assure an efficient coordination. IGEAT defines the precise formats for the interactive process with ESPON MC to define the VISION. IGEAT will develop hypothesis on the VISION in parallel to the discussions on Scenarios, to feed ESPON MC discussions.

ET2050 State of the Works TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012