New Project of the Energy Economics sub-group Feygin V.I. TG-1 Meeting Brussels, 2 5 November, 2011

A New Project of the Energy Economy sub-group Our goals: Create a decision support tool for energy policy makers with improved transparency in building models, scenarios and forecasts Create a collaborative platform, attract participation of experts and stimulate information exchanges on modeling, scenarios development and assumptions selection Develop a methodology for mimicking assumptions and known models in use at various public and private sector entities

Methodology Energy System Input from the Scenario Simulation Model

Questions Within Each Scenario Analyzed Is our understanding of the assumptions, technologies and policies correct? Correctness for us is first of all, feasibility, but also similarity (simulated results vs. published) Using the simulated results will we enrich the understanding of the analyzed model/scenario? Will these results deliver additional insights? Which lessons did we learn for this particular scenario in the context of the overall scenario field?

Baseline Scenario Based on NTUA research – PRIMES BL-2009 scenario, published in DG TREN’s Energy Trends till 2030 Update And on OECD database 2011 Edition. Implemented in the MESSAGE model (IIASA/IAEA). At the moment – 4-regional model (North, South, Middle East EU), in the future – each country will be modeled separately. 270 technologies and 84 time slices per model region

Next Steps and Challenges Next scenarios to analyze by eoy 2011: – Eurogas and – RM-2050 (we invite for cooperation!) Discrepancies in available statistics and generation capacity data (e.g. Eurostat,IEA, EnerDATA) (we invite for cooperation!!)

Internet portal for energy scenarios With a purpose to increase the transparency and facilitate easy access to energy scenarios and forecasts Energy Economics sub-group has launched a new service – an Internet Portal for Energy Scenario Internet address: Login/password: demohttp:// /spme With help of this service, researches can either benefit from already existing scenarios available on the Portal, or upload any other scenarios in order to share the experience with other groups A forum is expected to be launched early 2012 The HELP files in English & Russian are available from the site

Contact person: Yury Rykov (IEF, Moscow),’ THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION