Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018 EASFAA Portland, Maine Deborah A. Santiago, PhD Excelencia in Education May 20, 2008

What to look for? -Shifting paradigm for higher education -higher education resistant to change Will you be resistant to change?

Sources -National Center for Education Statistics -Spellings Commission -The Futures Project -”Madame Deborah”

What does the future of higher education look like?

More diverse enrollment Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Enrollment of Hispanics will continue to grow faster Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Enrollment of older students will grow faster than traditional Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Women continue to outpace men in undergraduate enrollment Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

More students going full-time Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Growth of private institutions will continue to outpace public institutions Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Continuation of growing reliance on loans to pay for college Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Postsecondary Aid Study (NPSAS): Undergraduate Students; and unpublished analysis Percentage of UG using loans to pay for college

Increasing: - costs - public scrutiny - capacity limitations - market competition Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Postsecondary Aid Study (NPSAS): Undergraduate Students; and unpublished analysis Other changes to higher education’s future

What does the future hold for higher education? Policy issues Access Affordability Accountability Market structure vs. public good TENSION in trying to balance disparate areas!!

What does the future hold for access to higher education? More diverse student body for outreach and service Challenge to status quo and standard operating practice Who takes responsibility for increasing access? Market structure: for-profit institutions see potential of enrolling Latinos and African American students

What does the future hold for accountability in higher education? More demand by politicians for proof of public return on investment while investing less Challenge to status quo and standard operating practice How balance access and accountability? Market structure: raise admission standards to increase graduation rates and penalize institutions with low success rates

What does the future hold for affordability in higher education? Increasing costs and competition Complexity of financial aid system How balance access, accountability, and affordability? Market structure: cost containment and increased productivity

What Excelencia will do to address the future of higher education Ignorance abatement on Latinos in higher education (Research) Compendium of promising practices (Action) Demonstration projects to show how institutions can serve (Action)

What will YOU do to address the future of higher education?

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