11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Clean Electricity Options for the Pacific Northwest: An Assessment of Efficiency and Renewable Potentials through the year.

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Presentation transcript:

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Clean Electricity Options for the Pacific Northwest: An Assessment of Efficiency and Renewable Potentials through the year 2020 October2002 Michael Lazarus, David von Hippel, Stephen Bernow Tellus Institute, for the NW Energy Coalition

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition PNW Electricity generation resources, 2001 (Source: NPPC, 2001c) Natural gas and wind have grown since mid-2001 CA gas, Interior West coal, and BC hydro also used to meet loads

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Schematic of Study Approach Study area: 3½ state BPA area Basic assumptions: Regional Technical Forum Demand forecast: adapted from Council 4 th plan Wind resource analysis: Brower/TrueWind Solutions Biomass resource analysis: Jim Kerstetter, WSU Advice and access to data: Power Council, NW Energy Efficiency Alliance, WSU Energy Center, OR Office of Energy, Pacificorp, BPA, RNP, Ecotope, NWSEED, Climate Solutions

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Changes to Load Projections

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition End-Use Demands & Efficiency Measures

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Commercial efficiency savings to 2020

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Commercial measures: net annual costs & benefits

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Residential efficiency and fuel switch savings to 2020

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Residential measures: net annual benefits & costs

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Residential measures: net annual benefits & costs - w/o water heating measures

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Industrial/other efficiency savings to 2020

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Industrial measures: net annual costs and benefits

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Commercial Combined Heat & Power Evaluated 30 kW microturbines, 100 kW ICE and 800 kW ICE Assumed 30% penetration by 2020 Displace 1315aMW grid electricity by 2020 Ave. cost = 3.2 cents/kWh, 1.08 b/c

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Industrial Combined Heat & Power Evaluated 800 and 3000 kW ICE and 10 and 40 MW CTs Assumed 30% penetration by 2020 Displace 1031 aMW grid electricity Ave. cost = 3.7 cents/kWh,.92 b/c

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Overall Results: Efficiency, fuel switch, and combined heat and power (CHP) measures CHP by 2020 (included in the table): 1315 aMW commercial and 1031 aMW industrial Fuel switching by 2020: 322 aMW from switching residential water heaters to high efficiency gas; 73 aMW to solar water heaters

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Wind Resource Cost and Potential (with and without Production Tax Credit)

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Regional Biomass Electricity Options Near-term options: Cofiring biomass (residues) at coal stations Landfill gas Longer-term options: Modular, gasification combined cycle systems using residue streams High-efficiency cogeneration systems at paper & pulp mills

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Summary of renewable resource results (assuming 2010 costs) Smaller resources such as distributed photovoltaics, small wind and hydro not considered

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition A Combined Resource Scenario Identified (achievable) efficiency/fuel switch potential 20% of electricity production by (non-hydro) renewables by 2020

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition CO2 emissions from electricity generation under combined resource scenario

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Conclusions Cost-competitive efficiency and renewable energy resources are more abundant than commonly assumed, and far more than being pursued Major reductions in (electricity) CO2 emissions are possible at limited cost or net economic benefit More in-depth understanding of demand patterns and markets (esp. industrial) would be beneficial The merits of specific policy instruments (offset requirements, portfolio standards, tax incentives, efficiency standards, etc.) need to be evaluated