1 Unidata Policy Committee National Weather Service Report October 25, 2004 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service

2 Outline Teamwork NWS Products and Service National Digital Forecast Database

3 Teamwork Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!

4 Teamwork 751 Communities 47 States 751 Communities 47 States

5 StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02 Forecast & Detection Warning Dissemination Response

6 Teamwork National Research Council’s Report Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well Recommendations include: –Congressional Mandate – protect life and property –Public/Private Partnership Process –Data and Products in standardized format –New/Discontinue Products –Communicate Uncertainty

7 Seamless Suite of Products Minutes Hours Days 6 – 10 Days 8 – 14 Days Months Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Protection of Life & Property Protection of Life & Property HydropowerHydropowerRecreationRecreationEcosystemEcosystem State/LocalPlanningState/LocalPlanningEnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgricultureReservoirControlReservoirControl HealthHealth Space Operations TransportationTransportation Fire Weather EnergyEnergy OutlooksGuidance Threats Assessments ForecastsWatches Warnings & Alert Coordination OutlooksGuidance Threats Assessments ForecastsWatches Warnings & Alert Coordination Forecast Lead Time

8 Communicating Threats Severe Weather Polygon Eliminates False Alarm Area

9 Communicating Threats Hurricanes

10 Communicating Threats Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

11 Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - Gaston August 30, 2004

12 Communicating Threats Indices Today –Wind Chill Index –Heat Health Index Tomorrow –Tornado F-scale Revision –Winter Storm Index?

13 Seamless Suite of Products National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD ) Focuses NWS Meteorologist on MeteorologyFocuses NWS Meteorologist on Meteorology Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own ApplicationAllows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own Application Timeframe: FY Timeframe: FY Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D Digital ObservationsObservations AnalysesAnalyses ForecastsForecasts Uncertainty InformationUncertainty Information Outlooks, Watches, WarningsOutlooks, Watches, Warnings Gridded Forecast Database TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

14 Summary of NDFD Grid Readiness Operational status on December 1 –Max Temperature –Min Temperature –PoP 12 Conditionally ready for operational status – Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids operational –Temperature –Dewpoint –Weather Not ready for operational status –QPF –Snow amount –Sky cover –Waveheights –Wind direction and speed

15 On December 1, 2004, portions of the NDFD will become an official NWS product. Specifically, the NWS has determined that 3 of the initial 12 experimental elements will be declared official. These three official elements include: Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Probability of precipitation PoP12 This represents an initial operating capability IOC for NDFD. The NWS expects to continue to improve the reliability, accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of the grid elements after NDFD IOC. Until the NWS completes backup server upgrades on March 1, 2005, users may experience service delays on rare occasions. The nine remaining elements from the original set will retain their experimental status while they are improved and evaluated. Users will be given 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to official status. The NWS will announce by December 15, 2004, which additional elements will be transitioned to official NWS products on January 15, Issue Public Information Statement (September 16, 2004)

16 NDFD element review –Comparison to recommended product transition criteria Spatial Consistency Timeliness Completeness –Assessment of NDFD verification scores Forecast error Forecast bias –Subjective look at grid quality Appearance Other issues

17 NDFD Error Scores MAE and Brier Scores CONUS August 2004 MaxTMaxT MinTMinT PoPPoP QPFQPF SkySky SnowSnow TempTemp DewDew WaveWave WDirWDir WSpdWSpd WxWx NDFD Day MOS Day NDFD Day MOS Day n/a

18 NDFD Bias Characteristics CONU S 2004 MaxTMaxT MinTMinT PoPPoP QPFQPF SkySky SnowSnow TempTemp DewDew WaveWave WDirWDir WSpdWSpd WxWx NDFD Day 1- 3 good n/a+ variance late in day good n/aslight + bias n/a MOS Day 1- 3 good n/agood n/agoodn/a NDFD Day 4- 7 good n/a+ variance late in day goodn/astrong + bias at night n/a MOS Day 4- 7 good n/agood n/a

19 Element Summary Review NDFD elemen t Spatial Consist -ency Timeli- ness Complet e-ness Error Scores Bias Character -istics Subjectiv e Factors Current Readines s Official Max Tgood high12/1/200 4 Min Tgood high12/1/200 4 PoPgood marginalhigh12/1/200 4 QPFgoodpoormargina l unknown poorlow Skygoodmargin al unknown poorlow Snowgood unknown poorlow Tempgoodpoormargina l poormarginalmedium Dewmargin al poormargina l goodmarginalmedium Wavemargin al poor incomple te poorlow WDirmargin al goodmarginaln/apoorlow WSpdgoodmargin al goodmarginalpoor low Wxgood unknownn/amarginalmedium

20 Background Material –Border Consistency Maps –Timeliness Maps –Completeness Maps –NDFD Error Charts –NDFD Bias Charts –Example NDFD Images Ones suitable for framing Ones to hide in the attic

21 Border Consistency Max Temp 97% Min Temp 97% PoP12 97% QPF 97% Snow Amt 99.82% Sky 97% Criteria >= 90%

22 Border Consistency Temperature 95% Dewpoint 91% Wave Height 92% Wind Direction 91% Wind Speed 99.62% Criteria > = 90%

23 Timeliness MaxT 98% MinT 99% PoP12 98% QPF 92% Snow Amt 97% Sky 95% Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time 90% of the time

24 Timeliness Temperature 92% Dewpoint 90% Wave Height 78% Wind 94% Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time 90% of the time Weather 97%

25 Completeness MaxT 97% MinT 98% PoP12 97% QPF 97% Snow Amt 99.82% Sky 93% Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time 95% of the time

26 Completeness Temperature 97% Dewpoint 96% Wave Height 85% Wind 97% Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time 95% of the time Weather 97%

27 NDFD Error Charts Max Temp

28 NDFD Error Charts Min Temp

29 NDFD Error Charts PoP12

30 NDFD Error Charts Temperature

31 NDFD Error Charts Dewpoint

32 NDFD Error Charts Wind Speed

33 NDFD Bias Charts Temperature

34 NDFD Bias Charts Dewpoint

35 NDFD Bias Charts Wind Speed

36 Example NDFD Images some good ones Saturday morning in Northern Rockies –Maximum Temperature –PoP12 –Sky Cover –Wx –Temperature –Dewpoint –QPF –Snow Amount

37 Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

38 Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

39 Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

40 Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

41 Example NDFD Images some not so good ones Clouds by zone Uncoordinated QPF Daily battle with dewpoints Uncoordinated Wave Height Wind Speed during Ivan Weather by zone Misconfigured WFO grids Missing Grids

42 Example NDFD image Clouds by zone Congruent day 1 forecast Less congruent day 4 forecast

43 Example NDFD images Uncoordinated QPF Inconsistent forecast Same forecast issued 3 hours later

44 Example NDFD Images Daily battle with dewpoints Dry in Davenport and Nashville Dry in Davenport and Nashville Humid in Davenport and Nashville

45 Example NDFD Images Uncoordinated wave height Coordination glitches during big events

46 Example NDFD Images Wind speed during Ivan

47 Example NDFD Image Weather coverage by zone Impressive with minor exception in Michigan

48 Example NDFD Images Misconfigured WFO grids

49 NDFD Example Images Missing grids

50 Summary First 3 Grid Elements official December 1 Monthly trends show gradual improvement NWS working on improving methodology, developing better QA smarttools, sharing best practices