COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES & STUDIES 1

CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN ON THE ROLE OF DATA AND THEORY IN STRATEGY AND INNOVATION 2

3 Strategy and innovation are somewhere between unguided trial- and-error experimentation and rules- based science.

4 We train managers and do research about management [with] the belief that decisions should be grounded in solid analysis of data. [Data-based analyses] rely on an implicit theory: The past is a good predictor of the future.

5 The game is changing, meaning what was successful in the past would no longer guarantee success in the future

6 The level of one's insight is not strictly a function of the level of one's access to unique or proprietary information. Armed with the right concepts, anyone can produce insights that surpass those of analysts who are knee-deep in industry minutiae.

7 The only way to look into the future is to use these sorts of theories, because conclusive data is only available about the past

8 Good theory provides a robust way to understand important developments, even when data is limited.

9 Theory is even more helpful when there is an abundance of data. With more information available, it is harder to discern what information really matters. Theory helps to block out the noise and to amplify the signal.

10 Many people who make their livings providing advice about the future express deep skepticism about theory-based prognostication.

COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES & STUDIES 11

Agenda Need for and Scope of Commercial Space Industry Analyses & Studies Recent, Current and Future Work Implementation Options and Desired Outcomes Summary BACK-UP CHARTS History of Strategic Management from "The Management Myth" by Matthew Stewart Scope of Strategic Management from "Strategy Safari" by Henry Mintzberg Partial Bibliography 12

Need for Commercial Space Industry Analyses & Studies As in many other fields, space policy and acquisition strategy decisions tend to be “pragmatic, inspired by immediate needs and pressures and by one another's examples, rather than by a grand theoretical design.” - David Hart, "The Emergence of Entrepreneurship Policy: Governance, Start- Ups, and Growth in the U.S. Knowledge Economy " USG Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy Regarding Commercial Space Industry Currently Relies Heavily Upon Personal Experience and Data-Based Studies & Methodologies USG Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy Can Benefit from Under-Employed, Theory-Based Analyses & Structures Use of All Analytical Options Will Provide More Nuanced Perspectives to Support Decision-Makers 13

Scope of Commercial Space Industry Analyses & Studies Accounting Economics Finance Human Resources Management (Strategic ~) Marketing Operations Multiple-Disciplinary Other General Business Information Technology Insurance International Business Law Real Estate and Urban Land Economics Risk Management Work and Organizations 14

Recent Work NASA, FAA & Other USG Reports 1997 Commercial Space Transportation Study 2002 DoC OSC Space Market Opportunities nd NGEC Entrepreneurial Opportunity in Lunar Development 2008 Oxford Analytical "Understanding the Space Economy" 2010 FAA Commercial Human Spaceflight Workshop 2010 Near Earth LLC “Supporting Commercial Space Development” 2011 NASA Commercial Space Transportation Market Assessment Report FAA Launch Forecast Reports (Annual) FAA Economic Impact Reports (Biannual) US Industry, State, Academic, & Int'l Reports 2008 Tauri Report for PSF 2009 Toffler B&W Paper 2010 Paper: Measuring the Impact of Space Tourism Activities 2011 Tauri Report to Space Florida: Reusable Suborbital Market Characterization 2011 MD The Business of Space Science OECD Space Economy at a Glance Reports (2007, 2011) “Enabling Complementary Commercial and Government Enterprises In Space” by Dr. M. Griffin presented at the 2011 IAC. 15

DATA-INTENSIVE EVALUATION METHODS Source: IAC-11.D3.4.5 “Assessment Of Evaluation Methods For Space Technology Concepts” by Egbert Jan van der Veen, DLR Institute of Space Systems - Bremen

CURRENT THEORY-BASED STUDIES 1. “Space Tourism Industry Structural Analysis Workshop” led by K. Davidian at the 2010 ISU SSP. 2. “Suborbital Market Overview And Application Of Disruption Theory” by K. Davidian presented at the 2010 IAC. 3. “Industry Structural Analysis Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Sector”" by B. Cheetham presented at the 2010 IAC. 4. “Market Characterization: Launch of Very-Small and Nano-Sized Payloads Enabled By New Launch Vehicles” by, I. Christiansen, D. Vaccaro, and D. Kaiser presented at 2010 IAC. 5. “An Industry Structural Analysis and Strategy Insights for the Commercial Crew Transportation Industry” by D. Kaiser, I. Christiansen, J. Foust and K. Davidian presented at AIAA Space “Applying Disruption Innovation Theory in Emerging Markets for Crew On-Orbit Transportation” by I. Christiansen, K. Davidian, D. Kaiser and J. Foust, presented at AIAA Space “Are Commercial Space Transportation Industries Emerging?” by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I. Christiansen, presented at 2011 IAC. 8. “Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Commercial Cargo and Crew Space Transportation Markets” by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I. Christiansen, presented at 2011 IAC. 9. “Strategic Evaluation Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Transportation Industry Structure And Status” by B. Cheetham presented at the 2010 IAC. 17

Future Work Established Studies (Data-Based) Market Forecasts Market Assessments Business Cases Financial Analyses Economic Impact Models New Studies (Theory-Based) Strategic Management Theories and Analyses Marketing Studies 18

Summary Current Portfolio of Industry Analyses are Data- Intensive Increased Application of Theory-Based Analyses Can Paint a More Nuanced Picture Ultimate Goal is Better Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy Decisions 19

BACK-UP SLIDES 20

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