11 Space Weather Services in Support of Global Air Navigation – Role of the Neutron Monitor Doug Biesecker Bob Rutledge NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado October 24 th -25 th, 2015 Neutron Monitor Community Workshop – Honolulu, HI

22  Sector Changes and Drivers  Government Mandates  Aviation Exposures  Modeling / Input Data Needs  Air Force Weather Agency Outline

3 Sector Changes and Drivers Polar route usage has become a cornerstone of international aviation over the last decade plus The High Frequency (HF) impacts from Solar Flares and Solar Radiation Storms are fairly repeatable and reasonably well understood To work around the communication impacts Iridium use is coming/in use by some (e.g. approved by the FAA for oceanic flight operations in July 2011) The high latitude radiation exposure issue hasn’t been well-addressed to date by all – both an issue of actual risk and perceived risk… Information is needed and that is coming through ICAO Image courtesy of Mike Stills/United AirlinesImage credit Tim Ockenden/PA

4 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 4 United Nations specialized agency, created in 1944 upon the signing of the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) ICAO works with the Convention's 191 Signatory States and global industry and aviation organizations to develop international Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) SARPS are then used by States when they develop their legally-binding national civil aviation regulations Recognized the space weather threat at the 2002 Met Divisional Meeting

5 Action within ICAO 5 ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July, 2014) Recommendation 2/7: That an appropriate ICAO expert group, in close coordination with WMO, be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weather… a)requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft concept of operations for space weather information services; b)selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and regional space weather centers, including the optimum number thereof; c)appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of space weather information services on a global and regional basis; d)considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts space weather events could have on international air navigation Inclusion of requirements in Amd. 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

6 SWORM Action Plan Space Weather Operations, Research and Mitigation DOC, DOD, and NSF in coordination with academia, the private sector, and international partners will support and enhance the worldwide ground-based neutron- monitoring network to include real-time reporting of Ground Level Events (GLEs) to operational space weather forecasting centers. –Measure of performance: Current monitoring network sustained and additional monitors added as necessary to enable model-based characterization of the radiation environment at commercial aviation and space altitudes, and all monitors enhanced to include real-time data transmission to operational forecast centers. –Timeline: Within 5 years of the publication of the action plan. The draft SWORM Action Plan

7 Peter Beck, et al

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10 Aviation Radiation Modeling Examples 10 NAIRAS PANDOCA AVIDOS All need higher energy information of the SEP spectrum to do it well.

11 Matthias M. Meier & Daniel Matthiae 2013

12 Allan J. Tylka & William F. Dietrich, 2009 High Energy Characterization with Neutron Monitors

13 RequirementThreshold /Objective Spatial Coverage Measurement Range Measurement Accuracy Sampling Interval Data Latency Ground-Based Neutrons T>30° N and S every 10° >1 to > 15 GeV10% above median background 5 minutes Ground-Based Neutrons O>30° N and S every 10° >0.1 to >15 GeV 10% above median background 5 minutes NOAA Requirements are held in the Coordinated Observations Requirements List (CORL) Neutrons are a priority 1 requirement –Priority 1: Cannot meet operational mission objectives without these data Neutrons are in good company –Auroral Boundary, Solar Corona, Heliospheric Imaging et al. –Many priority 1’s are still on the SWPC wishlist The Current NOAA Requirements

14 Air Force Weather Agency –High Flyer Radiation Model runs every 6 hours e.g. U2 flights Direct data feed from Thule through South Mountain –Stopped (when?) –Currently get data from U. Delaware –Can use Thule or other sites Not a ‘Program of Record’ –Difficult to get anything done 14 The Air Force Picture

15 NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado