International Study of Arctic Change Documenting & Understanding Arctic Changes and Responses

ISAC Science Program Long-term system-scale pan-arctic research program International Cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary

ISAC Goals Observe and track arctic changes across all domains Understand nature, causes, connectivities among changes Elucidate linkages between the arctic and the global systems Provide scientifically sound information for the development of response strategies to society and decision makers Sea ice extent for September 16, 2007, compared to previous record. NSIDC Kevin Kallaugher, The Economist August 16, 2007

Recent Observations of Change Change is occurring across all domains Recent change is best documented in the physical system Changes are interrelated Changes (some) are cumulative and have already an impact on life in the Arctic Time Series - Arcitc Cod - Barents Sea, Provided by Harald Loeng, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway LC-US Arctic Alaska ca. AD 1913

Understanding the Past, Present and Future Arctic System Developing observational & modeling capabilities Separating secular trend from anomalies Understanding the physical mechanics & feedbacks behind arctic amplification Improving predictive capabilities Developing effective strategies for coping & mitigating with changes yet to come Bill Gould, forest ecologist, left, and Skip Walker, IAB, UAF, right, collect plants for vegetation studies in Isachsen, Ellef Ringnes Island, Nunuvut, Canada, July Photo by Fred Daniels/University of Muenster, Germany August Captain Cook reaches the ice pack at 70° 44'N., north of Icy Cape. He reported that in the early afternoon, sailing in a chilly mist, they encountered a wall of ice about 12 feet high, stretching from horizon to horizon. After noting that the pack ice was advancing at the rate of 15 miles in 10 hours, they then headed south again. The following night, they encountered a huge herd of walruses on icebergs - although dozens of the animals were killed, the men were unwilling to eat the meat, which they termed "disgustful" and compared to train oil.

Science Questions How is arctic change manifest? How is arctic change linked to global change? Why is arctic change amplified with respect to global change? How persistent and unique are presently observed changes? How well can arctic change be predicted? What are the feedbacks between the environment and the human system; how do these effect arctic change? How do ecosystems respond to arctic change? How do socio-ecological systems respond to arctic change? How vulnerable are arctic communities and ecosystems to arctic change What mitigation and adaptation strategies can be employed?

ISAC Objectives Facilitate the establishment of an integrated arctic observing network Quantify current changes Place present observations into historical context Project future changes Describe interconnections among changes Analyze and disseminate data Advance understanding of feedback processes

ISAC Components Observing –Integrated observing systems Understanding –Analysis, synthesis, –modeling, reanalysis, projections Responding –Adaptation and mitigation –Draws on and feeds back to observations, understanding and projection

ISAC Program Implementation  Strategic vision for integrating diverse areas and constituents and providing focused research on arctic change.  Science and implementation plan that identifies the means best suited for addressing ISAC scientific hypotheses  Basis for science plan is ISAC Science Overview Document

Challenges  Obtaining significant community input to the development of research plans & priorities.  Providing significant input to funding, government & other agencies and organizations.  Collaborators investing in problem definition from the start. Figure 15.4 Location of Siberian Lakes that have disappeared 1970’s IPCC 4 Polar Regions.  Recognition that observation, modeling & synthesis lead to the common tasks of advancing system-scale knowledge, establishing relevance to societal needs, enabling assessment and response.

Challenges  Creating the scientific & stakeholder partnerships.  Developing collaborations on issues of data management, integration, access & availability.  Engaging the scientific community in conveying information to the public, to policy makers, to resource managers & other stakeholders.  Developing best practices for communicating scientific information including model results, & predictions (& error ranges) in aid of decision making. Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, Canada Igloolik, Research Center Nunavut, Arctic Canada

For Further Information Contact Maribeth S. Murray, Ph.D. Executive Director ISAC International Programme Office