Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008 Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008 Priorities for the Future

Outline Successes and Challenges Collaborative Partnerships are vital  Data Collection  Modeling  Transition of Research to Operations Outreach and Education Community Hazard Resiliency Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 2

Track and Intensity forecasts  48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year Storm Surge Rainfall / Flooding Storm Structure Sea State Observations Success and Challenges Collaborative Partnerships Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 3 UAS Flying into Hurricane (artist depiction) Storm Surge/Flooding

Collaborative Partnerships Data Collection Entire observations system depends on partnerships Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR’s) being transitioned from research to operations UAS partnerships (NASA, DOE) Ocean Surface Vector Winds In Situ Observations COSMIC Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 4 SFMR or “SMURF” Altair

Collaborative Partnerships Modeling and Prediction Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 5 Hurricane Katrina HWRF Model—8/2005 Navy COAMPS Model of Significant Wave Heights in Western Pacific GFDL  Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model HWRF  Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System  Operational in 2007; GFDL will run in parallel Navy GFDN & COAMPS  Tropical Cyclone Systems Multi-Model Ensembles /Model Consensus  Important to tropical cyclone forecast and warning operations NUOPC

Collaborative Partnerships Transition of Research to Operations Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Modeling  NCEP / EMC  Developmental Testbed Center  Navy/FNMOC Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 6 Joint Hurricane Testbed Center

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 7 Map of StormReady Communities Outreach and Education StormReady NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards  Multi-Agency collaboration including  Department of Education  Department of Homeland Security  Department of Commerce/NOAA Work with FEMA, States and Local Agencies, NGOs, Academia, Private Companies Media Hurricane Liaison Team Seasonal Forecasts and Preparedness Map of NWR Coverage

Collaborative Partnerships Hazard Resiliency For Coastal Communities Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 8 “High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure”  National Science Board report “High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure”  National Science Board report Figure: County Population Change (1970 – 2000) in 1000’s of people Red: coastal counties Green: non-coastal counties Impact of Tropical Systems on Ecosystems Partnership needed to meet resource demands

Collaborative Partnerships Need for Community Hazard Resiliency Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 9 “High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure”  National Science Board report “High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure”  National Science Board report Figure: County Population Change (1970 – 2000) in 1000’s of people Red: coastal counties Green: non-coastal counties Impact of Tropical Systems on Ecosystems Partnership needed to meet resource demands DUPLICATE SLIDE

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 10 Questions?

Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008 Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008 Priorities for the Future

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 12 Collaborative Partnerships Response Hurricane Liaison Team Media Pool HLT (FEMA/NOAA) discussing tidal surge heights for Hurricane Lili (2002) NHC Meteorologist Updating HLT Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 13 Collaborative Partnerships Recovery Land falling tropical cyclones will occur again Assistance from Federal Agencies will be critical to recovery efforts Status of Transportation-related Recovery Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 14 The Path Ahead What have we learned? Multiple Hurricane Proposals 1. Partnerships and coordination 2. Operational requirements 3. Advancements in operational numerical weather prediction models 4. Advanced observations and data assimilation 5. An efficient transfer of research to operations plan 6. Critical Mass is crucial Path and Intensity Track of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 15 The Path Ahead Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead  Excellent Plan  Comprehensive Strategy  Key Areas  Relevant R&D

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 16 Collaborative Partnerships Global Earth Observation System of Systems A distributed system of systems  Improves coordination of strategies and observation systems  Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks  Identifies gaps in our global capacity  Facilitates exchange of data and information  Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues