Nature – not Human Activity – Rules the Climate Lyncean Society, San Diego Jan. 12, 2011 S. Fred Singer, Science & Environmental Policy Project

20 th Cy Warming: AGW or Natural? Both are plausible. What says the evidence? Comparison of observations and models IPCC-4: Global mean sfc temp vs a composite calculated curve, using adjustable parameters. But this is simply an exercise in ‘curve-fitting.’ IPCC-2, CCSP-1.1 and NIPCC use fingerprint method (latitude&altitude patterns of trends): Comparison of balloon/sat data vs GH-models Douglass et al (2007) vs Santer et al (2008)

CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change

CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 5, Figure 7E

A more detailed view of the disparity: Douglass, Christy, Pearson, Singer

Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change -- NIPCC An independent examination of published IPCC evidence by an international group of some 30 climate experts from 16 nations Organized in 2003 by Prof. S. Fred Singer as “Team B;” workshop in Vienna, April 2007 Summary for Policy-Makers and Technical Summary, published by Heartland Institute in March 2008

Which set of temp observations ? Santer et al 2008 [S08] relies on visual overlap between obs and modeled trends Direct sonde data: authors are not retracting Trends from re-analysis likely spurious -Christy But S08 shows both data sets agree with sat Hence, we need better discriminant: MT – LT is sensitive to Upper Trop

Temperature Changes from more than 30 Years of Satellite Observations Source : drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperature s

MSU Weighting Functions

LT & MT Tropics Temp Trend (degK/decade) (1979 to Yr xxxx)

Uncertainties of Modeled Trends Structural Uncertainties: model differences – Choice of forcings – Choice of parameters (clouds, etc) Chaotic Uncertainty: sensitive to initial values – Typically an order of magnitude – or more – How many model runs (“simulations”) are necessary to get the ‘true’ temp trend: 5,10, 25? – IPCC Practice: First form the “ensemble-means” and then average over all models (but most models trends are based on only one or two runs)

Figure 2.22

Empirical Study of Model ‘Ensemble-Mean’ (EM) Choose an Unforced 1000-yr Model Divide into 25 chunks of 40 years each Calculate ‘ensemble-mean’ vs no. of runs: its value must be zero (for an unforced model) – The EM reaches asymptotic value after ~10 runs Repeat: Create trends for 100 runs – Trends show a Gaussian distribution

Temperatures of Unforced Model

Cumulative Mean Trend

Summing Up: Obs and GH Models NOT Consistent Santer + 16 coauthors [Intl J Clim 2008] claim: “Consistency of Modeled and Observed Temp Trends…” BUT New set of troposphere temp is spurious Analysis of model uncertainties is incomplete

Climate fears distort energy policy Climate change is a non-problem; not amenable to human influence or control Our problem are politicians who claim to “save the climate” and destroy the economy It takes real courage for politicians to resist the urge and “do nothing” Example: RES (Renewable Electricity Standard) – calls for 15%+ use of wind and solar

Renewable Electricity Standard Bi-partisan madness: Bingaman, Brownback et al – high-cost, intermittent, unreliable power A FRAUD: Will not reduce CO2 emissions. Will not reduce oil imports. Why not nuclear? A HOAX: CO2 is NOT a pollutant; has negligible effect on climate. A RIP-OFF: Taxpayer pays for govt subsidies; ratepayers milked by “feed-in tariff”

Two Economic Issues 1. Cost-Benefit Analysis 2. Cap & Trade

Dilemma for Politicians When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, Sir? John M. Keynes

Other Scientific Issues Sea Level rise ‘Hockeystick’ controversy Climate models shortcomings; IPCC-2 changes; IPCC-4 curve-fitting Solar control of climate change; GCR  clouds IPCC efforts to simulate 20 th century temps D-O events; 1500-yr cycle; Temp-CO2 relation SST problems: Skin effects; OHC; Buoys Climate Sensitivity;Feedback issues; Saturation

IPCC 1990 IPCC 1995 IPCC Draft IPCC 2007 Hansen (H) Rahmst. (R) Singer (S) Max Min Sea Level Rise to 2100 S R H

Temperature Deviation (  C) a. b.

Source :

Stalagmite Records in Oman 14 C – a Proxy for Solar Activity 18 O – a Proxy for Temperature The stalagmite record shows a remarkably close correlation between 14 C and 18 O over a period of more than 3,000 years. Thus, a strong association exists between solar activity and temperature. Neff et al. (2001)  One Century Duration!

A Drastic Re-Consideration Contrary to IPCC, Santer, the ‘hot spot’ is due to ‘moist adiabat’ [Riehl, Lindzen]--not GH gas Any sfc warming will lead to troposph hot spot But MSU-UAH sat data show no wmg (‘79-’97) Hence the reported (CRU) sfc wrmg is suspect This would explain many puzzling results [NAS 2000; Santer et al 2005; proxy data; etc] Could the cause be ‘Neg Feedback’? Unlikely; any sfc wmg would create NF (incl ?)

a. b.

Urban Heat Island Effect Temperature Trends at 107 Californian Stations 1909 to 1994 Stratified by 1990 population of the county where station is located (A) Large Counties: More than 1 million people Average 29 stations (B) Midsized Counties: 100,000 to 1 million people Average 51 stations (C) Small Counties: Less than 100,000 people Average 27 stations Temperature in degF

Temperature Changes from more than 30 Years of Satellite Observations Source : drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperature s