The New Farmer’s Almanac Agriculture and Climate Change Anne Royer & Tomomi Suwa GK-12 Fall Workshop October 3, 2012

How will climate change impact farmers? Understanding the difference between climate and weather Specific predictions of climate change Using real long-term data to understand how predicted changes may affect crops

Weather vs. Climate WEATHER Local Short-term (days to months) Prediction based on current conditions Current atmospheric conditions CLIMATE Regional or broader Long-term (years to decades) Prediction based on less labile long-term trends Big picture of how atmosphere behaves

Illustrating weather vs. climate

HOW will the climate change? Everywhere: Warmer temperatures Higher annual precipitation More rain in winter and spring Increase in extreme weather events – less predictable weather What will this mean for agriculture?

HOW will the climate change? In Michigan: Warmer temperatures Higher annual precipitation More rain in winter and spring Increase in extreme weather events – less predictable weather What will this mean for agriculture?

HOW will the climate change? In Michigan: Warmer temperatures Higher annual precipitation More rain in winter and spring Increase in extreme weather events – less predictable weather What will this mean for agriculture?

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

LTER - Since 1987

CornWheatSoybean

Biomass over time Biomass (g/m 2)

Research Questions Does climate change affect crop yields? Any guesses?

Hypothesis and predictions If (hypothesis) then (prediction) Data we have: -Biomass (g/m 2 ) -Total precipitation (May – Sept) -Average soil moisture (May-Sept) -Average temperature(May-Sept) Does climate change affect crop yields? Hypothesis: Educated guess, general statement Prediction: What you think will happen, more specific

e.g. If climate change affect crop yield, then increased soil moisture will increase crop production.

Methods Prediction: Increased soil moisture will increase biomass Soil Moisture (%) Biomass (g/m 2 )

Methods Title: The Effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable Independent Var (unit) Dependent Var (unit) Cause: Something that is affecting the dependent variable but not affected by dependent variable. Effect: Something that might be affected by the change in the independent variable

Plotting in Excel e.g. moisture vs. precipitation

Let’s analyze the data! Divide into 3 groups (corn, wheat, soy) Spend 15 min plotting graphs Share the results with the class Plot: – Biomass vs Precipitation (mm) – Biomass vs Soil Moisture (%) – Biomass vs Temperature (°C)

Results

Effects of Precipitation on Crops Biomass (g/m 2) Accumulative Precipitation between May - Sept (mm)

Effects of Soil Moisture on Crops Soil Moisture (%) Biomass (g/m 2)

Effects of Temperature on Crops

Precipitation (mm) Soil Moisture (%) Temperature (°C)

Hypothesis: Climate change will increase yields RESULTS (supported predictions in red) Corn – Increased temperature, increased yield – Increased soil moisture, decreased yield Soy – Increased precipitation, slightly decreased yield Wheat – Increased soil moisture, increased yield – Increased precipitation, increased yield

Hypothesis: Climate change will increase MI yields Conclusions Hypothesis supported for corn and wheat, but not soy Climate change is likely to have different effects on different crops Caveats: May be unmeasured correlated variables Simplified data –e.g., we didn’t control for when and how the precipitation arrived

Wrap-up Will climate change increase yields? IT DEPENDS! Weather vs. climate: we’re using – variation in WEATHER – to predict the result of changes in CLIMATE

Helpful resources n/climate/index.html (NASA explanation of climate vs. weather) n/climate/index.html (NOAA interactive climate change graphs) de_id=59525 (MSU extension pamphlets) de_id=59525