Saving Consumers Money by Closing Uneconomic Coal Units Bruce Biewald 2012 NASUCA Meetings Charleston, SC June 25, 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Saving Consumers Money by Closing Uneconomic Coal Units Bruce Biewald 2012 NASUCA Meetings Charleston, SC June 25, 2012

Questions What is up with coal plant economics? What should be done about it? | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Environmental Regulations Timeline | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Actual and EIA Projected Natural Gas Prices | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Coal Unit Forward Going Costs: Two Examples | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 5

Carbon Price Forecasts | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 6

Summary of Coal At Risk Studies | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 7

Existing US Coal Fleet Forward Going Costs | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 8 Analysis based on Synapse database

Announced Retirements of US Coal Fleet | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 9 Forward going costs of existing US coal fleet by capacity factor ($/MWh) Forward Going Costs $/MWh)

American Electric Power Coal Units | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 10 Forward going costs of existing coal fleet by capacity factor ($/MWh) Forward Going Costs $/MWh)

Pacificorp Coal Units | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 11 Forward Going Costs $/MWh) Forward going costs of existing coal fleet by capacity factor ($/MWh)

| ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 12 Old Coal Plants Have Significant Investment in Rate Base Data from data collected from 41 coal plants owned by eight utilities. Average plant age weighted by capacity: ~45 years Average plant capacity: ~636 MW Average unrecovered plant balance: ~$347/kW Average unrecovered balance as a percentage of Total Cost: ~50%

Regulatory Treatment of Retired Power Plant(s) Ohio Docket EL-RDR Order: January 12, 2012 Ohio Power sought approval for a rider to recovery unamortized plant balance of $58.7 million for Sporn Unit 5 (450 MW, 1960) Commission dismissed the case citing closure not subject to approval and no statutory basis for recovery of closure costs Alabama Docket U-5033 Order: September 7, 2011 Alabama Power sought authorization to establish regulatory asset treatment and amortization schedule for generating units to be retired early as a result of EPA regulations Commission approved request | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 13

Part 1: What should be done? Utilities should save their customers money by retiring the coal units that are uneconomic on a forward-cost basis. Prudent utility system planners must: –collect current and relevant information (don't wait for information to come to you) –anticipate reasonably expected market conditions and environmental regulations (not piecemeal or head-in-the-sand approach) –consider a reasonably wide range of resource options | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Part 2: What should be done? Regulators should: –insist on prudent planning –open comprehensive compliance planning dockets –include retrofit versus retire analysis in all planning dockets –consider prudence and "used and useful" in rate cases –disallow imprudently incurred costs –disallow costs that are not used and useful, unless there's good reason not to disallow | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 15

Part 3: What should be done? Consumer Advocates should: –encourage the utilities and regulators to do their jobs (see previous slides) –insist on retirement of uneconomic plants –argue for disallowance of imprudently incurred retrofit investment(s) –argue to remove from rate base existing plant that is not "economically used and useful" (whether or not the plant is operating) | ©2012 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 16