11. Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging, IPS and other remote sensing observations in Improving Space Weather Prediction Bernie Jackson, Simon Plunkett, & Doug Biesecker Scheduled Times, Ilima 14:00 – 15:15, 15:45 – 17:00 At: ftp://cass185.ucsd.edu/Presentations/2012_SHINE/Session_11 Instruments: Space-Based (LASCO, SECCHI, SMEI) Ground-Based: Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) In this session, we will discuss the results of coronal and heliospheric imaging in order to assess the improvements in space weather forecasting brought about by heliospheric and multi-viewpoint imaging. We will contrast Earth- based and non-Earth-based imaging to identify the areas where open issues remain and significant improvements can be made. Tentative Speaker Schedule (Attempt to present using fewer than 10 slides over half of the time): 14: :20 Nat Gopalswamy, “EASCO, the L5 (L4) NASA Mission concept, and its coronal and heliospheric imaging (and other) use for forecasting" 14:20 – 14:40 Doug Biesecker, "Why a Sun-Earth Coronagraph is Best" 14:40 – 15:00 Angelos Vourlidas, “NRL CME and Co-rotating Structure Modeling and its use in Forecasting” 15:00 – 15:15 Bernard Jackson, “Inner Heliosphere Global Solar Wind Structure Forecasts using Ground-Based Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Measurements” Break 15:45 – 16:00 Peter MacNeice / Aleksandre Tatakishvili, “Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved” 16:00 – 16:10 Curt de Koning, “Polarimetric localization: A tool for calculating the CME speed and direction of propagation in near-real time” 16:10 – 16:20 Esmeralda Romero, “Report about MEXART and plans for its use as a dedicated IPS system” 16:20 – 16:30 Hui Tian, “CME observations using spectroscopy and polarimetry“ 16:30 – 16:40 Neel Savani, “The influence of CME momentum onto the Earth's Magnetosphere” 16:40 – 16:50 Ying Lui, "Sun-to-Earth Propagation of CMEs and Connection with In Situ Signatures"

Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A Heliophysics Mission at Sun-Earth L5 Nat Gopalswamy NASA Goddard Space Flight Center EASCO to be Located here

SUN Earth View Halo CME L5 View Limb CME 2009 October CIR Earthward CMEs can be measured without projection effects CIRs can be observed ~4 days ahead of earth arrival Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A Heliophysics Mission at Sun-Earth L5 Nat Gopalswamy

Spacecraft Assembly & Launch Config. Total payload mass 138 kg Electric Propulsion key. SMART-1, DAWN, Hayabusa, >100 commercial EASCO

Doug Biesecker NOAA/SWPC Why a Sun-Earth line Coronagraph is Best Use classic Full Halo, Partial Halo, Limb morphology to determine Earth impact –Need secondary observations to resolve near side - far side ambiguity X-ray flare, X-ray/EUV image, H-alpha image Classic cone model can be used to derive CME parameters needed to drive WSA-Enlil –Need a constraint on CME width –Right now, more than one view is required, but there is hope CME’s seen from the side have longitude ambiguity at best, and are unresolved at worst –Don’t know if Earth will get hit by the CME –Will polarization data resolve this? Is there a preferred angular separation?

Assessing Predictions of CME Time-of-Arrival and 1 AU Speed to Observations Angelos Vourlidas Naval Research Laboratory Vourlidas- SHINE CIR Observations and Predictions

3D CIR model HI2-A Synthetic HI2-A image HI2-B Synthetic HI2-B image Imaging CIRs with HI2: The 2008 January 31 CI Study the Evolution of CIRs in 3D Wood et al 2011 Vourlidas- SHINE Angelos Vourlidas

IPS line-of-sight response 3,432 m 2 STELab IPS array in Toyokawa, Japan STELab IPS array systems STELab Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Heliospheric Analyses Bernard Jackson

CCMC “Real-Time” Forecast UCSD Forecast Webpage UCSD “Real-Time” Forecast  July 14 0 UT Velocity June UT  Aftcast Bernard Jackson MacNeice and Taktakishvili Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved

Report about MEXART and plans for its use as a dedicated IPS system Esmeralda Romero Institute of Geophysics UNAM MEXART

Curt de Koning, “Polarimetric localization: A tool for calculating the CME speed and direction of propagation in near-real time” Neel Savani, “The influence of CME momentum onto the Earth's Magnetosphere” Hui Tian, “CME observations using spectroscopy and polarimetry“ Ying Lui, "Sun-to-Earth Propagation of CMEs and Connection with In Situ Signatures" 11. Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging, IPS and other remote sensing observations in Improving Space Weather Prediction B. Jackson, S. Plunkett, & D. Biesecker At: ftp://cass185.ucsd.edu/Presentations/2012_SHINE/Session_11