Photo courtesy Corey Deards. What is El Nino? El Nino Signal.

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Presentation transcript:

Photo courtesy Corey Deards

What is El Nino? El Nino Signal

YearONI (Nino 3.4) (DJF) (OND) (OND) (DJF) (DJF) (NDJ) (DJF) (OND) Consensus Forecast

Winter precipitation in northern Arizona was above normal during 6 out of 7 of the strongest El Niño years, including as recently as

Percent of Normal Winter Precipitation During Past El Niño and La Niña Normal

Drier Wetter Near Normal Winter Outlook - Precipitation

Winter Season Days with 2” or greater Days with 4” or greater Days with 6” or greater Days with 8” or greater Average Strong El Niño Normal

Precipitation: Oct 1 – Nov 30 Flagstaff Prescott Window Rock

Off to a Great Start… (Well Above Normal Precip in Flagstaff)

So…The El Nino…  Does NOT mean that we’ll get huge storms, just likely to see more storms (which may, or may not be ‘big’).  Does NOT mean that we’ll be colder, or warmer than normal. Official temp forecast is for near normal temperatures.  There still is a slight chance (15%) that it could be drier than normal this year!

What to Prepare For This Winter  More frequent winter storms (20-35% more)  Enhanced risk of heavy snow loads.  Increased wear on area roadways.  Enhanced risk of ‘ice dam’ formation on roofs.  Threat of high water in primary streams and rivers.